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Texans @ Ravens -9 (44)
The Ravens have had basically 2 weeks off, resting starters in week 18 in a pointless game vs the Steelers. But let us remind folks, that the Ravens did indeed get their asses whooped 10-17.
The rest factor will be a big deal here. We just need to gather some info. Will the rest be advantageous, or will it stop momentum, create "rust" if you will.
We also have a big sos discrepancy. Texans #30, Ravens #4. Sos per dvoa says #27 vs #5. Advantage Ravens. This will be CJ's first road playoff game. But like I've said before, this kid is of different ilk, imo.
CJ Stroud carved up the #2 dvoa defense in the Browns last week. But that was at home, and the splits show us that the Browns D was a true Jekyll N Hyde otr this year. The Ravens are the # 1 dvoa D, and at home. Rest usually energizes a defense.
On the flip side, rest could unhinge an offense's continuity. At least out the gate. I kind of like the under for these reasons, but I'm not sure if that's enough for a bet.
9 feels like a high #.
We have all the ingredients for a really good football game. 2 real good QB's. I'm putting em both in the top 5. Lamar honestly is #1 worthy. We have 2 real good O coordinators. It's still early to rank or rate Demeco Ryan's, but he seems to have gotten the players on his side. I can say we have 2 real good head coaches here. And last but not least, 2 really good special teams units. A sign of a buttoned up team with depth.
There are #'s out there that say, backing the Ravens as dogs or short favs is much better than mid to heavy favorites.
Gun to head, I'd take the +9. Would I be shocked if the Ravens won by 10+, or steam rolled em the way they did to other very good opponents(I'm talking to you 49ers), not at all.
WTF!?!?
,,,,,,,,,,also alt line oilers/leafs over 8.5 +225,,,,,,,,
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