Nfc south showdown that is unfortunately in a prime time slot, fortunately for us not everyone has Amazon Prime.
The Falcons after going 6-0 ats to start the year, are now 0-3 ats last 3(depending what # you got last game). They have been favored only once this year(0-1 ats), and here they are favored on the road for the first time.
2 weeks ago the Falcons beat the Panthers by 3 at home, vs PJ Walker. PJ Walker got benched last game for Baker Mayfield.
I don't know how to cap this game and want no part of it.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Teams on bye: Ravens, Patriots, Bengals, Jets
TNF: Atlanta(-3)@Carolina(O/U 46.5)
Nfc south showdown that is unfortunately in a prime time slot, fortunately for us not everyone has Amazon Prime.
The Falcons after going 6-0 ats to start the year, are now 0-3 ats last 3(depending what # you got last game). They have been favored only once this year(0-1 ats), and here they are favored on the road for the first time.
2 weeks ago the Falcons beat the Panthers by 3 at home, vs PJ Walker. PJ Walker got benched last game for Baker Mayfield.
I don't know how to cap this game and want no part of it.
The game is on a neutral field in Germany. Gimme a 32oz beer mug, some weinersnitzel, and the Seahawks +2.
When is Seattle supposed to come back to earth? The books are telling us every fuckin week, and they continue to win/cover. What is back to earth for them exactly? Pre season ratings/opinions? What if they are who they are? We're through 9 weeks, I'll say the later.
Look, the Bucs were losing to the Rams the entire game until the final 40 seconds. The Rams are a team with a bad run game, and immobile qb, just like the Bucs. The Seahawks have a great run game and mobile qb.
I don't care what the bet % will be, I have to stay on the Seattle train till it goes off the tracks.
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Seattle(+2) vs Tampa Bay(O/U 44)
The game is on a neutral field in Germany. Gimme a 32oz beer mug, some weinersnitzel, and the Seahawks +2.
When is Seattle supposed to come back to earth? The books are telling us every fuckin week, and they continue to win/cover. What is back to earth for them exactly? Pre season ratings/opinions? What if they are who they are? We're through 9 weeks, I'll say the later.
Look, the Bucs were losing to the Rams the entire game until the final 40 seconds. The Rams are a team with a bad run game, and immobile qb, just like the Bucs. The Seahawks have a great run game and mobile qb.
I don't care what the bet % will be, I have to stay on the Seattle train till it goes off the tracks.
The Broncos off a bye vs the Titans who sported the most lopsided boxscore of the year vs KC. On that boxscore alone, it was predicted that the score should of been 32-16. Instead we got OT and a KC 3 pt win.
Give credit to Mike Vrabel, he does a lot with nothing game after game. He really knows how to dirty up a game, get in the heads of the opposition, and make it ugly.
Will Ryan Tannehill be back? I'm assuming so. It's a miracle that the Titans went 1-1 with 11 completions in those 2 games combined.
Maybe the bye will be good for Russ's health and chemistry with his offense, cause through 8 weeks they don't have any. What will Denver's D look like without Bradley Chub?
According to the juice, early bettors are gonna take the 3 off of the Broncos and I don't disagree. The Titans sos is pitiful, they keep barely winning vs bad competition, and staying in games vs good competition.
Hard to handicap, coaching edge goes to Titans as Nathaniel Hacket has been criticized more than any other coach this year.
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Denver(+3-120) @ Tennessee(O/U 39)
The Broncos off a bye vs the Titans who sported the most lopsided boxscore of the year vs KC. On that boxscore alone, it was predicted that the score should of been 32-16. Instead we got OT and a KC 3 pt win.
Give credit to Mike Vrabel, he does a lot with nothing game after game. He really knows how to dirty up a game, get in the heads of the opposition, and make it ugly.
Will Ryan Tannehill be back? I'm assuming so. It's a miracle that the Titans went 1-1 with 11 completions in those 2 games combined.
Maybe the bye will be good for Russ's health and chemistry with his offense, cause through 8 weeks they don't have any. What will Denver's D look like without Bradley Chub?
According to the juice, early bettors are gonna take the 3 off of the Broncos and I don't disagree. The Titans sos is pitiful, they keep barely winning vs bad competition, and staying in games vs good competition.
Hard to handicap, coaching edge goes to Titans as Nathaniel Hacket has been criticized more than any other coach this year.
I'm surprised to see a line as the Saints play the Ravens tonight. Also surprised to see early bettors all over the Saints. "Sharps" are on the Saints tonight vs the Ravens imo, the line movement says so. So this Saints team is looking like one of those wise guy darlings. Kind of hard to see with the naked eye, but someone sees something.
Their D is really good. Andy Dalton is a middle of the road guy, he puts up good #'s one game, and makes critical mistakes in another. I would like to see more Taysom Hill, and am surprised that he hasn't been used more in the wake of running qb success in the nfl this year.
Feels like the Steelers have made a terrible decision with sticking with Kenny Pickett. The kid is just not ready, makes too many poor throws and puts the ball in danger often. Poor Mitch is made the Captain, gets benched, comes in for an injured Pickett, leads his team to victory vs the Bucs, and benched again for a healthy Pickett. Pitt loses the following 2 games.
What is Tomlin doing? Is it his call? Are we seeing the end of an era? It may be time for a complete reset for this Steeler organization. We should look at next coach to be fired odds, Tomlin should be good juice.
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New Orleans(-2.5-125) @ Pittsburgh(O/U 41)
I'm surprised to see a line as the Saints play the Ravens tonight. Also surprised to see early bettors all over the Saints. "Sharps" are on the Saints tonight vs the Ravens imo, the line movement says so. So this Saints team is looking like one of those wise guy darlings. Kind of hard to see with the naked eye, but someone sees something.
Their D is really good. Andy Dalton is a middle of the road guy, he puts up good #'s one game, and makes critical mistakes in another. I would like to see more Taysom Hill, and am surprised that he hasn't been used more in the wake of running qb success in the nfl this year.
Feels like the Steelers have made a terrible decision with sticking with Kenny Pickett. The kid is just not ready, makes too many poor throws and puts the ball in danger often. Poor Mitch is made the Captain, gets benched, comes in for an injured Pickett, leads his team to victory vs the Bucs, and benched again for a healthy Pickett. Pitt loses the following 2 games.
What is Tomlin doing? Is it his call? Are we seeing the end of an era? It may be time for a complete reset for this Steeler organization. We should look at next coach to be fired odds, Tomlin should be good juice.
I was right in taking the -6 look ahead, doesn't mean that covers though. Will look at Houston if it hits +7.5.
Bad spot for the Texans at this point, they put in a good effort for Philly on Thursday. They will have 10 days rest vs the Giants 14 days rest.
It's kind of hard to lay a td with a Giants team who have been arguably the "luckiest" team in the nfl. Sporting only a +6 point differential with a 6-2 record.
It's just that the Texans are the worst team in the nfl, 32 by dvoa, and have thee worst run D and have to face a fresh Saquon and Danny Dimes.
I'm sure the Gmen will be the public side here, and by a large %. Anyone want to give the Texans an argument for the cover then I'm all ears, as I'm planning for a middle.
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Houston(+7) @ NYG(O/U 38.5)
I was right in taking the -6 look ahead, doesn't mean that covers though. Will look at Houston if it hits +7.5.
Bad spot for the Texans at this point, they put in a good effort for Philly on Thursday. They will have 10 days rest vs the Giants 14 days rest.
It's kind of hard to lay a td with a Giants team who have been arguably the "luckiest" team in the nfl. Sporting only a +6 point differential with a 6-2 record.
It's just that the Texans are the worst team in the nfl, 32 by dvoa, and have thee worst run D and have to face a fresh Saquon and Danny Dimes.
I'm sure the Gmen will be the public side here, and by a large %. Anyone want to give the Texans an argument for the cover then I'm all ears, as I'm planning for a middle.
The Browns coming off a do or die victory vs the Bengals. The Browns have a much better pass defense and pass rush than the Bears, and if Tua has any weakness it's that he's slow footed in the pocket.
When he's not pressured he is $. The Miami wr's are incredible in getting open and usually win the 50/50 balls. The Bears D line had only 1 sack, and 2 qb hits where one of those hits was called roughing the passer. Only 1 Bears d linemen had more than one tackle, and it was Gipson with 2.
Jeff Wilson stepped right into Mike McDaniels scheme without missing a beat, the familiarity with him and Mostert should be a good thing for their run game. And the run will have to be a point of emphasis vs a weak Browns run D.
Miami's D isn't anything special, they are pretty bad for the most part. The total of 49 is suggesting a high scoring game.
The Browns are off a bye, and 2 weeks away from DeSean Watson.
The Dolphins lose to the Bears if that blocked punt td doesn't happen.
Coach McDaniels has some warts when it comes to decision making in game.
Kinda feeling this spread should be 3, leaning Browns.
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Cleveland(+4) @ Miami(O/U 49)
The Browns coming off a do or die victory vs the Bengals. The Browns have a much better pass defense and pass rush than the Bears, and if Tua has any weakness it's that he's slow footed in the pocket.
When he's not pressured he is $. The Miami wr's are incredible in getting open and usually win the 50/50 balls. The Bears D line had only 1 sack, and 2 qb hits where one of those hits was called roughing the passer. Only 1 Bears d linemen had more than one tackle, and it was Gipson with 2.
Jeff Wilson stepped right into Mike McDaniels scheme without missing a beat, the familiarity with him and Mostert should be a good thing for their run game. And the run will have to be a point of emphasis vs a weak Browns run D.
Miami's D isn't anything special, they are pretty bad for the most part. The total of 49 is suggesting a high scoring game.
The Browns are off a bye, and 2 weeks away from DeSean Watson.
The Dolphins lose to the Bears if that blocked punt td doesn't happen.
Coach McDaniels has some warts when it comes to decision making in game.
Kinda feeling this spread should be 3, leaning Browns.
We talked about KC's boxscore, an anomaly or great coaching by Vrabel? This is still one of if not the best teams in the nfl.
Have the Getty's turned a corner? They backdoored the shit out of the Raiders. But wait, does that win look so good now as the Raiders lost to the Saints the week before 0-24, and now sit at 2-6?
I'll let our resident Jaguar expert Getty expound on this matchup.
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Jacksonville(+10) @ KC(O/U 50)
We talked about KC's boxscore, an anomaly or great coaching by Vrabel? This is still one of if not the best teams in the nfl.
Have the Getty's turned a corner? They backdoored the shit out of the Raiders. But wait, does that win look so good now as the Raiders lost to the Saints the week before 0-24, and now sit at 2-6?
I'll let our resident Jaguar expert Getty expound on this matchup.
Auto bet on the over. Maybe weather pending before we place that bet. These 2 teams have maybe the worst defenses in the entire league.
The Lions have thee best offensive line in the nfl, and I'm starting to question if the Bears even have a defensive line.
The look ahead line was Bears -1.5, I starred at it for days. It's now headed for -3 despite the Lions winning outright as a dog vs GB, and rather convincingly. Coach Campbell gave the game ball to their defensive coordinator after the game, but I get the hunch that a shitty Aaron Rodgers throwing 3 pics and blaming everyone other than himself was the real reason.
The Lions will have no answer vs Justin Fields off script and designed runs. Chase Claypool will be more familiar with the playbook, and hopefully take more snaps than St. Brown who catches maybe 50% of passes thrown his way.
I still feel weird watching my Bears the last 2 games. I'm used to a sturdy defense, and an inept offense. They just did a 180.
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Detroit(+2.5+100) @ Chicago(O/U 48.5)
Auto bet on the over. Maybe weather pending before we place that bet. These 2 teams have maybe the worst defenses in the entire league.
The Lions have thee best offensive line in the nfl, and I'm starting to question if the Bears even have a defensive line.
The look ahead line was Bears -1.5, I starred at it for days. It's now headed for -3 despite the Lions winning outright as a dog vs GB, and rather convincingly. Coach Campbell gave the game ball to their defensive coordinator after the game, but I get the hunch that a shitty Aaron Rodgers throwing 3 pics and blaming everyone other than himself was the real reason.
The Lions will have no answer vs Justin Fields off script and designed runs. Chase Claypool will be more familiar with the playbook, and hopefully take more snaps than St. Brown who catches maybe 50% of passes thrown his way.
I still feel weird watching my Bears the last 2 games. I'm used to a sturdy defense, and an inept offense. They just did a 180.
Game of the week? The look ahead was Buff -9.5. Big drop and rightfully so, or an over reaction to the Bills losing to the Jets as 11 pt favs?
The Vikings once again win a game that they are losing going into the 4Q. Are they lucky? Or are they legit? They are a hard team to get a grasp of. Kirk "you like that" Cousins will be in his noon start comfort zone. Jefferson showed some life yesterday finally, going without a td for quite some time. But look out if Tredavious White plays, he just came off IR last week and may be playing again.
I'm hearing some whispers of Josh Allen having a hurt elbow. He was seen grasping it throughout the game yesterday and looking uncomfortable. All though he was still able to throw a pass with 70+ air yards yesterday.
The Jets pounded the rock over n over vs the Bills. They won top 32:44 to 27:16. And that was vs a Bills team without Matt Millano. He should be back next week. I'm not sure the Vikings have the run game to produce the same results. The Vikings were only able to muster 2.5 ypc with 56 yards vs Washington. They rank 24th in the league with 102 rush yards pg.
If the public isn't going to want any part of the Bills this week, I will be obliged to bet them. If the line hits 7 we are a go.
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Minnesota(+7.5) @ Buffalo(O/U 48)
Game of the week? The look ahead was Buff -9.5. Big drop and rightfully so, or an over reaction to the Bills losing to the Jets as 11 pt favs?
The Vikings once again win a game that they are losing going into the 4Q. Are they lucky? Or are they legit? They are a hard team to get a grasp of. Kirk "you like that" Cousins will be in his noon start comfort zone. Jefferson showed some life yesterday finally, going without a td for quite some time. But look out if Tredavious White plays, he just came off IR last week and may be playing again.
I'm hearing some whispers of Josh Allen having a hurt elbow. He was seen grasping it throughout the game yesterday and looking uncomfortable. All though he was still able to throw a pass with 70+ air yards yesterday.
The Jets pounded the rock over n over vs the Bills. They won top 32:44 to 27:16. And that was vs a Bills team without Matt Millano. He should be back next week. I'm not sure the Vikings have the run game to produce the same results. The Vikings were only able to muster 2.5 ypc with 56 yards vs Washington. They rank 24th in the league with 102 rush yards pg.
If the public isn't going to want any part of the Bills this week, I will be obliged to bet them. If the line hits 7 we are a go.
Could you believe that the look ahead was Dallas -3(-105)? Some mother fuckers took GB +3 early? That was a mistake.
Dallas off a bye and Dak has looked sharper each game back from injury. With Ezekiel Elliott being out last week, the Cowboys finally saw how effective Pollard can be when given more of a work load. Try telling Jerry that, he's delusional.
The Cowboys now since last year are 19-7 ats.
I guess my only concern here is that the Packers are in their ultimate buy low spot, and the Cowboys are at a sell high point. Conventional wise guy theory would be playing the Packers here.
But I can't find a reason to, convince me otherwise.
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Dallas(-5) @ GB(O/U 42.5)
Could you believe that the look ahead was Dallas -3(-105)? Some mother fuckers took GB +3 early? That was a mistake.
Dallas off a bye and Dak has looked sharper each game back from injury. With Ezekiel Elliott being out last week, the Cowboys finally saw how effective Pollard can be when given more of a work load. Try telling Jerry that, he's delusional.
The Cowboys now since last year are 19-7 ats.
I guess my only concern here is that the Packers are in their ultimate buy low spot, and the Cowboys are at a sell high point. Conventional wise guy theory would be playing the Packers here.
But I can't find a reason to, convince me otherwise.
If you told me the Rams were 3-5, AZ 3-6, and that there was only 1 team above .500, and that team was the Seahawks after 9 weeks in the NFC West at the begging of the year...
The Rams are 1 dimensional, can't run and their qb is a statue. That alone with Kyler Murray being a mobile qb makes me lean the Cardinals initially. But he isn't a heady qb, he plays the game like a video game. And reports are that he likes video games more than practicing football.
This is a rough matchup to cap. While both teams are down in the dumps at this point, you gotta think they will play hard here. As whoever loses this game will be in a really bad place.
The Cardinals home n road splits are upside down, they play better otr, and always have better value because of this.
People question the Rams hfa as LA is a flakey fair weather type of place.
People hate Kingsbury, people hate McVay.
Where do we find an edge in this game? Should be a hard pass unless someone has an angle that resonates.
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Arizona(+3) @ LAR(O/U 43.5)
The total looks frightening low.
If you told me the Rams were 3-5, AZ 3-6, and that there was only 1 team above .500, and that team was the Seahawks after 9 weeks in the NFC West at the begging of the year...
The Rams are 1 dimensional, can't run and their qb is a statue. That alone with Kyler Murray being a mobile qb makes me lean the Cardinals initially. But he isn't a heady qb, he plays the game like a video game. And reports are that he likes video games more than practicing football.
This is a rough matchup to cap. While both teams are down in the dumps at this point, you gotta think they will play hard here. As whoever loses this game will be in a really bad place.
The Cardinals home n road splits are upside down, they play better otr, and always have better value because of this.
People question the Rams hfa as LA is a flakey fair weather type of place.
People hate Kingsbury, people hate McVay.
Where do we find an edge in this game? Should be a hard pass unless someone has an angle that resonates.
Last I saw the look ahead was 3.5, what made this line go through 4 and 6?
The Niners are off their bye, nothing changes for them. CMC is the ultimate weapon I get it. He had a rushing, passing, and receiving td in their last game.
The Chargers push(-3) at Atlanta coming off their bye.
I haven't looked much into this one, who's injured?
This game will have to be discussed and looked into throughout the week, value on the Bolts no matter what the case is. Unless if Herbert is out.
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SNF
LAC(+7) @ SF(O/U 46.5)
Woa...7, really?
Last I saw the look ahead was 3.5, what made this line go through 4 and 6?
The Niners are off their bye, nothing changes for them. CMC is the ultimate weapon I get it. He had a rushing, passing, and receiving td in their last game.
The Chargers push(-3) at Atlanta coming off their bye.
I haven't looked much into this one, who's injured?
This game will have to be discussed and looked into throughout the week, value on the Bolts no matter what the case is. Unless if Herbert is out.
Divisional game on prime time. How do you not lean Washington catching double digits?
I understand the Eagles are undefeated. And at what point do they lose gas, not just to win but to cover a big number. They do have 11 days rest here coming off TNF.
Heineke isn't the greatest qb, but is a dual threat. That has seemed to be the formula in the nfl this year. Remember that sharps have been in love with Washington this year, they saw something even with Carson Wentz under center.
I haven't fully capped this game, but I'm sure that the #'s will point me to something like Phillly -10 to -12 or so. But we know what happens in prime time, especially between divisional teams.
I'd blind bet the dog here unless someone can convince me otherwise.
That's it for week 10. I will have my popcorn and beer ready for the Ravens and Saints tonight. I will be rooting for Roquon Smith, he's a good kid. He has no agent and all he's done is play his ass off for the Bears for 4 years. Hopefully he helps the Shrimp.
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MNF
Washington(+11) @ Philly(O/U 44.5)
Divisional game on prime time. How do you not lean Washington catching double digits?
I understand the Eagles are undefeated. And at what point do they lose gas, not just to win but to cover a big number. They do have 11 days rest here coming off TNF.
Heineke isn't the greatest qb, but is a dual threat. That has seemed to be the formula in the nfl this year. Remember that sharps have been in love with Washington this year, they saw something even with Carson Wentz under center.
I haven't fully capped this game, but I'm sure that the #'s will point me to something like Phillly -10 to -12 or so. But we know what happens in prime time, especially between divisional teams.
I'd blind bet the dog here unless someone can convince me otherwise.
That's it for week 10. I will have my popcorn and beer ready for the Ravens and Saints tonight. I will be rooting for Roquon Smith, he's a good kid. He has no agent and all he's done is play his ass off for the Bears for 4 years. Hopefully he helps the Shrimp.
SNF LAC(+7) @ SF(O/U 46.5) Woa...7, really? Last I saw the look ahead was 3.5, what made this line go through 4 and 6? The Niners are off their bye, nothing changes for them. CMC is the ultimate weapon I get it. He had a rushing, passing, and receiving td in their last game. The Chargers push(-3) at Atlanta coming off their bye. I haven't looked much into this one, who's injured? This game will have to be discussed and looked into throughout the week, value on the Bolts no matter what the case is. Unless if Herbert is out.
line suggests the Bolts will be without Williams Allen and Everett again? crazy
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
SNF LAC(+7) @ SF(O/U 46.5) Woa...7, really? Last I saw the look ahead was 3.5, what made this line go through 4 and 6? The Niners are off their bye, nothing changes for them. CMC is the ultimate weapon I get it. He had a rushing, passing, and receiving td in their last game. The Chargers push(-3) at Atlanta coming off their bye. I haven't looked much into this one, who's injured? This game will have to be discussed and looked into throughout the week, value on the Bolts no matter what the case is. Unless if Herbert is out.
line suggests the Bolts will be without Williams Allen and Everett again? crazy
SNF LAC(+7) @ SF(O/U 46.5) Woa...7, really? Last I saw the look ahead was 3.5, what made this line go through 4 and 6? The Niners are off their bye, nothing changes for them. CMC is the ultimate weapon I get it. He had a rushing, passing, and receiving td in their last game. The Chargers push(-3) at Atlanta coming off their bye. I haven't looked much into this one, who's injured? This game will have to be discussed and looked into throughout the week, value on the Bolts no matter what the case is. Unless if Herbert is out.
I heard Herbert's ribs may be an issue, pretty hard to chuck it around the yard if in fact thats the case.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
SNF LAC(+7) @ SF(O/U 46.5) Woa...7, really? Last I saw the look ahead was 3.5, what made this line go through 4 and 6? The Niners are off their bye, nothing changes for them. CMC is the ultimate weapon I get it. He had a rushing, passing, and receiving td in their last game. The Chargers push(-3) at Atlanta coming off their bye. I haven't looked much into this one, who's injured? This game will have to be discussed and looked into throughout the week, value on the Bolts no matter what the case is. Unless if Herbert is out.
I heard Herbert's ribs may be an issue, pretty hard to chuck it around the yard if in fact thats the case.
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