NFL data base from 2016-2020 subject Home underdogs of 3.5+ points
Weeks 1-9 48.5% ATS
Weeks 10-17 36.3% ATS
Clear pattern of large home dogs becoming less valuable in the 2nd half of the season.
Makes sense. If a home team is a dog this late in the year, they probably have nothing to play for.
Here are some trends I found kinda humorous...
Packers 12-0 ATS since December 2018 coming off a game where they scored less than 23 points.
Vikings are 0-9 ATS since October 2018 as a dog when the total is under 56 off a win.
Titans are 9-0-1 O/U since 2013 at home when not more than 3 pt dogs coming off a win.
Steelers are 0-26 O/U on the road when they are not 13+ pt fav and are facing a team that is averaging at least 34.7 passes per game.
C'mon. Jump on them.
NFL data base from 2016-2020 subject Home underdogs of 3.5+ points Weeks 1-9 48.5% ATS Weeks 10-17 36.3% ATS Clear pattern of large home dogs becoming less valuable in the 2nd half of the season.
I imagine that another reason for this, in addition to what Sac pointed out, is that we start to get the old warm weather team playing on the road vs a cold weather team factor. In such a case there will be countless threads in the mains with guys brilliantly figuring out that Mia at Buff in January is a big advantage for the home team, and they bet accordingly. The line-makers are aware of the sheer brilliance of Joe Public, so shade the lines accordingly. Thus, you pay a premium if you want to bet on a cold weather team at home.
Same goes for the old west coast team traveling east for a 1:00 kickoff. I'm sure the line-makers aren't aware of this tricky angle 
I'd be careful with the BILLS tomorrow..Reich outcoached McDermott in the playoffs last year and almost knocked the Mafia out ( if only the Colts didn't have so many critical drops ) ... Surging rookie RT Spencer Brown is out testing positive , BILLS o line looked horrible without him vs the JAGS ....
I'd make the line BILLS -3.5
Thank you Double Up. I love when a homer has the wherewithal to be realistic. Your opinion is of high value here.
If I remember that game correctly in the playoffs, the Colts did a tremendous job with field position. The Bills were pinned back around their own 10 yard line for most of the game.
Interesting factoid.
Not one team in the AFC North has a losing record. The BWS's at 5-5 in last place.
According to Profootball Reference, not one team in the AFC North has a SRS rating above 0, which is the marker for an average team.
Good thing that the NFL back loaded all the divisional games, so when these below average teams square off, they will look like good games.
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but the line on the Chargers game steadily rose all week until it hit 6. Then they announce that big Ben will in fact be playing and the line only dropped half a point?
I haven’t really been paying attention to this game. Is that what happened?
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