CD Newsletter Week 11

TJ Watt is hurt. Pitt off a full OT game of painful to watch football.

Technically, Pats go from -4 to -7.5 if you're looking 2 weeks ago. I could see astute bettors being on both sides of the 7 here.

I could also see the Falcons getting tally whacked, just on the imbalance of talent and coaching. 

And I could see an ultra conservative Pats game plan where they win in a low scoring suffocating grinder.

My name is Mud and it's always been
'Cause I'm the most boring sonsabitch you've ever seen
I dress in blue, yes, navy blue
From head to toe I'm rather drab, except my patent shoes

Lines that stand out to me:

Panthers -3.5, books daring anyone to eat the hook vs a WFT that just handled the Bucs n Brady. Lean panthers.

Eagles -1, they are 5-5 ats. Here's your lay up sharps, wanna bet? Lean saints.

Packers -2.5, only gotta win by a FG for a 9-1 ats team? Ok...Lean vikings.

Giants +11.5, here we spot you over 10 points. The gmen are off a bye, Saquon may play, the Bucs just lost b2b games by a combined score of 46-65, and are 3-6 ats. Lean bucs.

Just watched some video of the Pats OL vs. the Browns DL. The Pats up front are monsters. Men against boys and Cleveland is better on the DL than Atlanta. Dallas destroyed Atlanta at the line of scrimmage and New England will do the same. I should have taken it at -6. Being a Thursday nighter it's almost impossible to lay 7 or more on the road.

Chase Young gone for the year and a few others for WFT

No way Titans should not have opened 12 - 12' 

@Biscuiteater1

 Titans with a 3 game lead in the division...6 game win streak...just beat the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams, and Saints...all in a row...and nobody cares. It's amazing. Nobody wants to play the Texicans but there isn't enough interest in the public pool of favorite bettors to move the line either. Like I said, nobody cares enough to even bet the game.

@Getty3

 
that was the one line I looked at and said to myself “ I have to bet that”

@Getty3

 I like your Getty's this week. Great situational spot. Off a bye, and SF playing the dreaded east coast noon start after MNF.

Since we all know how Shanny owns McCvay, I shall look into how he does in games following the Rams. You know they get up all week for that contest, now have to play Urban Meyer

@Getty3

 Cant be a look ahead spot, they got the Jets. It's looking like a holding nose play. I yi  yi (sp)

What's your favorite character(s) in the Wizard of Oz ?

Mine are the flying monkeys. 

Common opponents between the Ravens and Bears:

Vegas: Bears win by 11, Ravens lose by 6

Bengals: Bears win by 3, Ravens lose by 24

Lions: Ravens win by 2(miracle), Bears win by 10

The only team I refuse to bet on is the Texans.

But if ever there was a situational spot to bet against Tenn, this is it.

Titans coming off a gauntlet of games vs good teams, now play the untalented, unmotivated and poorly coached Texans, then have NE the following week. This is the ultimate letdown spot. Plus the Titans have already showed a willingness to play down to their competition in losing to the Jets.

I wouldn't bet this game with Scal's money ... unless it was in the snow in Wyoming

The lollipop guild midgets (no offense BWS)

If my math is correct, the Bears should be favored by 52 this week

Since 2015 the teams playing on Thanksgiving have gone 15-2-1 ATS the Sunday prior.

The 12 years prior to 2015, the teams playing on Thanksgiving went 45% ATS

In the Lamar Jackson era, the Ravens are 8-5 su following a loss, but 5-8 ats covering a spread of -6.5

In the Ravens last 3 games, they've thrown 60% of the time where they are averaging 5.9 ypp, and converting only 28.89% on 3rd down.

The Bears in that span have passed 52% of the time where they are averaging 6.8 ypp, and converting a meager 36.84% on 3rd down.

Lamar L3 games:

5 TD, 3 INT, 12 Sacks, 59.13%, 82.6 QBR, 247 Rush(5.88 ypr)

Fields L3 games:

2 TD, 5 INT, 11 Sacks, 65.91%, 71.1 QBR, 186 Rush(7.15 ypr)

Nearly the same QB, except Fields can throw farther, and with more accuracy, and averages more per rush.

@undermysac

 So you're saying that the Bears are better than the Shrimp

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/washington-103582975

Post #9 is mind blowing. 

Like, contrary to contrarian thinking...

Jazz 

@BIGDTITLE

 I played the Over, plus a couple of alt Over lines at plus money

Flacco under center for the Jets. 
Typical Jets move because it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever