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CD Newsletter Week 11

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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Teams on bye: Falcons, Saints, Patriots, Colts  TNF: Bengals @ Ravens -3.5 (46) The Ravens won the week 2 matchup in Cincinnati by 3. The Ravens are 7-3 and Bengals are 5-4, so a huge game in the AFC North where by records alone it looks like any team can win it. From a peripheral stand point, the Afc North looks like the best division in football.  The Ravens still boast the best dvoa ranking in the nfl. But yet look like they have problems closing some games late. Here's a cool article from dvoa. https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN/109307/week-10-dvoa-how-real-are-the-ravens-q4-problems I don't know what to do with this game at this #. And it's a Thursday game, in honor of Club Dirt, we pass on all TNF games.
I'll get to the article later i'm guessing from the length of it that some where it points out that since the beginning of last season the Ravens have lost 7 games in which they held double digit lead in the 4th quarter. 

 
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Posted: #27

SNF:

Vikings @ Broncos -2 (43.5)

A few weeks ago if you looked at this prime time matchup you'd not be looking forward to it. Today, this looks like what will be a very good and entertaining game.

Josh Dobbs has given the Vikings a spark. Since when has a qb taken over for the starter(who was playing well) and kept hopes alive? My mind can't recall all the times, but Tom Brady taking over for Drew Bledsoe comes to mind.

The Vikings in 2nd place in the nfc north, and definitely playoff relevant. Is Justin Jefferson due back soon?

Their D has been holding. Since week 6 #3 in defensive epa per play. Their secondary has been great. And quite honestly after seeing Russell Wilson last night, I don't think there's much to worry about.

The Broncos have clawed their way back to playoff relevance, possibly. Winning 3 in a row vs the Packers, Chiefs and Bills. It took Sean Payton some time to fix things, but he's proving why he's a good coach in the nfl.

The game is outdoors in altitude. Not too favorable for the Vikings.

The Vikings are 14th in dvoa, the Broncos are 26th. By that alone, I suppose a bet on the dog wouldn't be the worst idea.

Although I feel like the line is pegged right, and should be a great watch but no bet type of game.

 
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Posted: #28

Never seen so many interruptions  peace_5

 
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Posted: #29

Eagles @ Chiefs -3 (45.5)

Some books still hanging a -2.5(-125) on the Chiefs. 

Game of the week for sure. Maybe of the year. It's the SB rematch, and look, the league made sure that both teams were coming off a bye week for this one.

The Chiefs out rank the Eagles in offensive, defensive, and special teams dvoa. And have had a slightly stronger sos.

Eagles expected win loss record is 5.8-3.2

Chiefs expected win loss record is 6.4-2.6

Chiefs at home, Andy Reid off a bye thingy, Taylor Swift  probably attending, I don't like Nick Sirianni's face, gun to head, I'd bet the Chiefs.

But in all seriousness, we can talk about this game all week. It will be a MUST WATCH. It doesn't have to be a must bet.

That's all of them I think peace_5

 
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:

Never seen so many interruptions
Sorry i did not know he wasn't done. an_punch

 
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Posted: #31

Even if Fields starts i see no way John Q. brings the 10 down 2 2' points. peace_5

 
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Posted: #32

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Jets @ Bills -7 (40) Woa...the first wtf spread and total of the week. Bills fire their OC. Josh Allen is not right, and this is not a "get right spot" vs this kind of defense.  I guess that the Jets offense doesn't give the market any faith in them, but why is the total 40? Looks high imo. Since week 6, defensive epa per play Jets #1. Bills #32. Could we see Zach Wilson have a better game than Josh Allen here? I don't see why not. The Jets o line is bad, and bad o lines don't travel well.  I can't put my finger on this spread, but tell me why this game doesn't go under the total. Intriguing line. There must be more here than we think we know.
Guessing TOs play a big part in total.  Watching Jets on Sunday night was painful.  I think Bills get healthy here.peace_5

No way? Way
 
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Posted: #33

Pitt/Browns just off a slugfest and as much as it pains me they out slugged Baltimore on both sides on the ball.How much did it take out of them and can they match that intensity again this week?

 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Dallas -10.5 @ Panthers (42) Hey, same situation as the Bears and Lions. The Panthers on extended rest, and the Cowboys playing on Turkey day vs a divisional opponent.  Ok, let's not look at metrics, stats and stuff. Cause the Panthers will make you puke. Dallas just beat a division 3 Giants by a mile. There's only 1 bet you can make here, and it's ugly, it'll make you sick, and it's the Panthers +10.5. You can try to convince me otherwise, but it's the kind of bet you have to make every time and hope for the best.
Should be more than that by kick off. 

 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:

Never seen so many interruptions

Thanks for the interruption peace_5

 
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Posted: #36

@undermysac

 

Thanks for stepping up peace_5

 
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Posted: #37

Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

Even if Fields starts i see no way John Q. brings the 10 down 2 2' points.

John Q won't bring it down, the books would.

I have to read up more on the Bears and Fields. He was just about ready to play vs Carolina, but the short week didn't allow him to.

For the record, in the game where he got hurt vs the Vikings, Cody Whitehair was under center because Lucas Patrick was hurt. Whitehair is so bad at shotgun snaps, that they didn't allow him to do shotgun snaps. Fields excells from the shotgun. Fields was a mess in that game from under center.

 
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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Seahawks -1 @ Rams (46) Our only home divisional dog of the week, and I can't help but lean to McVay. Looks like Stafford will play, even though they got Carson Wentz off of the scrap heap. Big sos discrepancy, Seattle #24, LAR #7. Rams off a bye. The Rams lost their last 3 games, lost 4 of their last 5. The Seahawks won 3 of their last 4. And yet the books hang a line near a pk? I could only lean Rams
Agree 3 would have made more sense..to me anyway.

 
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Posted: #39

If Baker boy goes into San Fran and keeps it within the number I'll tip my hat to him. 

 
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Posted: #40

Tremendous effort sac peace_5

Accomplished time-waster
 
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Posted: #41

Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:

Boys own the bums.... Panthers are one of them.....

Let's take a looksy at the Cowboys otr this year:

@Giants won 40-0. This game shouldn't even count. First game of the year, vs division, the Giants are historically awful. No sandwich spot, nothing.

@AZ lost 16-28 How? Why? Just did

@SF lost 10-42

@LAC won 20-17 a squeaker

@PHI lost 23-28

Remember when Detroit last year was steaming,  winning 6 of their last 7 games, went to Carolina and lost 23-37? Dome team going east to play outdoors on grass. Weird shit happens. 

 
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Posted: #42

I'm going with the Over in SF & Dallas  , Sac peace_5

 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by yaongingy:

Tremendous effort sac
Agreed peace_5  an_cheers

 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by yaongingy:

Tremendous effort sac

Yes it was a tremendous effort peace_5

 

bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #45

Tap the brakes ..... It was ok peace_5

 
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Posted: #46

Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:

Tap the brakes ..... It was ok

I guarantee you that I win exactly $0.00 this week.

an_horse

 
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Posted: #47

Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:

Tap the brakes ..... It was ok

an_roll_laugh

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Posted: #48

After 10 weeks in 2023:

Sam Howell leads the league in passing yards. CJ Stroud is #2.

The Ravens Defense:

Roquon Smith and Patrick Queen are both in the top 10 in tackles this year. Safety Geno Stone leads the league in interceptions with 6. Justin Madubuick is 5th in sacks at 8.5.

Josh Allen leads the league in total touchdowns with 26. He also leads the league in interceptions with 11.

Joshua Dobbs leads the league in fumbles with 11. He's 2-7 in games he started this year.

31 players have scored 60 or more points so far. 29 are kickers. 2 are running backs. Christian McCaffrey(78) and Raheem Mostert(78).

Dustin Hopkins of the Browns leads the league in FG's with 24.

Noah Brown of the Texans leads the league in yards per catch at 20.9. His teammate Nico Collins is 3rd at 17.5.

The New Orleans Saints are leading the nfc south with a 5-5 record. Head Coach Denis Allen has an overall coaching record of 20-43.

Patrick Mahomes is 36-5 in the months of November and December in his career. 

 
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Posted: #49

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

After 10 weeks in 2023: Sam Howell leads the league in passing yards. CJ Stroud is #2. The Ravens Defense: Roquon Smith and Patrick Queen are both in the top 10 in tackles this year. Safety Geno Stone leads the league in interceptions with 6. Justin Madubuick is 5th in sacks at 8.5. Josh Allen leads the league in total touchdowns with 26. He also leads the league in interceptions with 11. Joshua Dobbs leads the league in fumbles with 11. He's 2-7 in games he started this year. 31 players have scored 60 or more points so far. 29 are kickers. 2 are running backs. Christian McCaffrey(78) and Raheem Mostert(78). Dustin Hopkins of the Browns leads the league in FG's with 24. Noah Brown of the Texans leads the league in yards per catch at 20.9. His teammate Nico Collins is 3rd at 17.5. The New Orleans Saints are leading the nfc south with a 5-5 record. Head Coach Denis Allen has an overall coaching record of 20-43. Patrick Mahomes is 36-5 in the months of November and December in his career.

 

this just goes to show you that NOTHING makes sense this season.    peace_5

 
 
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Posted: #50

So a slightly off topic question. 

What team is going to draft Caleb Williams and further set back their franchise?

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