Will add to this later, but first game on the docket is the following:
Thursday Night Football
Seahawks @ Cowboys -9.5
The Cowboys still have a path to win their division, which includes having to beat the Eagles for their second matchup later in the season. This week they face the Seahawks at home, where they've remained undefeated. To me, it's not a question as to whether they'll win this game (as I do believe they will), but if they can cover the spread. In the following home games this season, they have beat their opponents by more than 2 scores:
Jets (20 point win) Patriots (35 point win) Rams (23 point win) Giants (31 point win) Commanders (32 point win)
They beat the Rams w/Stafford behind center, so that game shouldn't be discounted. Aside from the Giants and Commanders, the other 3 have pretty good defenses.
The Seahawks are 2-3 on the road, and just got their fudge packed in by the 49ers at home last week. Among their road losses, they've lost to the Ravens by 34 points, the Rams by 1 point (division matchups are always tough, though), the Bengals by 4 points, and they prevailed in their matchups against the Giants and the Lions.
I look at the data presented above, and with knowing that the Cowboys are a top 3 defensive unit in the NFL and top 5 offense, I don't see how the Seahawks cover this.
Notable injuries/Cowboys: Jayvon Kearse and Micah Parsons (the latter is just ill and will play) Notable injuries/Seahawks: Geno Smith (Q, but I can't see him not playing), Kenneth Walker
Lean: Cowboys -9.5
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Will add to this later, but first game on the docket is the following:
Thursday Night Football
Seahawks @ Cowboys -9.5
The Cowboys still have a path to win their division, which includes having to beat the Eagles for their second matchup later in the season. This week they face the Seahawks at home, where they've remained undefeated. To me, it's not a question as to whether they'll win this game (as I do believe they will), but if they can cover the spread. In the following home games this season, they have beat their opponents by more than 2 scores:
Jets (20 point win) Patriots (35 point win) Rams (23 point win) Giants (31 point win) Commanders (32 point win)
They beat the Rams w/Stafford behind center, so that game shouldn't be discounted. Aside from the Giants and Commanders, the other 3 have pretty good defenses.
The Seahawks are 2-3 on the road, and just got their fudge packed in by the 49ers at home last week. Among their road losses, they've lost to the Ravens by 34 points, the Rams by 1 point (division matchups are always tough, though), the Bengals by 4 points, and they prevailed in their matchups against the Giants and the Lions.
I look at the data presented above, and with knowing that the Cowboys are a top 3 defensive unit in the NFL and top 5 offense, I don't see how the Seahawks cover this.
Notable injuries/Cowboys: Jayvon Kearse and Micah Parsons (the latter is just ill and will play) Notable injuries/Seahawks: Geno Smith (Q, but I can't see him not playing), Kenneth Walker
This is an uninspiring divisional matchup, so despite the Titans being out of the playoff race entirely, the Colts still have something to play for. Guess what? So does Will Levis. This is a weird split, but despite being 4-7, the Titans have won all 4 of those games at home. They're 4-1 in total. The Colts are also 4-1 on the road. (A much better away record than home.) Something's gotta give here, but I still like the home team at + money.
Something to keep in mind is the Colts had beaten the Titans by a touchdown when they played met up in Indy earlier in the year. Aside from the Bengals, whom they played in Tennessee, they don't blow teams away. (They beat the Bengals by 24 points.)
Will Levis will be starting his 6th game, and is currently 2-3 with completion percentage of 59.9 and a QBR of 88.2. The teams he lost to were the Jags, Buccs, and Steelers. Decent teams. He was able to beat up 2 of the weaker teams in the Titans and Panthers. For the most part, he takes care of the ball (6 TD - 2 INT, but those numbers are inflated by his 4 TD debut game, and one lost fumble).
The Colts are riding a 3 game win streak, having beat the Buccs, Patriots, and Panthers. Kind of expected, to be honest. Their Center, Ryan Kelly, has been out the past 3 weeks but they've still managed to win those games. (Wish I could say the same about my Chargers, after losing an even better Center in Corey Lindsley, but I digress.)
Notable injuries/Colts: JuJu Brents, Ryan Kelly Notable injuries/Titans: Traylon Burks, Terrell Edmunds
There's something about a Vrabel-coached team playing at home, with what's looking to be an at least average QB getting to know his playbook more and more each passing week.
Lean: Titans ML (if Edmunds plays)
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Sunday Football
Colts -1 @ Titans
This is an uninspiring divisional matchup, so despite the Titans being out of the playoff race entirely, the Colts still have something to play for. Guess what? So does Will Levis. This is a weird split, but despite being 4-7, the Titans have won all 4 of those games at home. They're 4-1 in total. The Colts are also 4-1 on the road. (A much better away record than home.) Something's gotta give here, but I still like the home team at + money.
Something to keep in mind is the Colts had beaten the Titans by a touchdown when they played met up in Indy earlier in the year. Aside from the Bengals, whom they played in Tennessee, they don't blow teams away. (They beat the Bengals by 24 points.)
Will Levis will be starting his 6th game, and is currently 2-3 with completion percentage of 59.9 and a QBR of 88.2. The teams he lost to were the Jags, Buccs, and Steelers. Decent teams. He was able to beat up 2 of the weaker teams in the Titans and Panthers. For the most part, he takes care of the ball (6 TD - 2 INT, but those numbers are inflated by his 4 TD debut game, and one lost fumble).
The Colts are riding a 3 game win streak, having beat the Buccs, Patriots, and Panthers. Kind of expected, to be honest. Their Center, Ryan Kelly, has been out the past 3 weeks but they've still managed to win those games. (Wish I could say the same about my Chargers, after losing an even better Center in Corey Lindsley, but I digress.)
Notable injuries/Colts: JuJu Brents, Ryan Kelly Notable injuries/Titans: Traylon Burks, Terrell Edmunds
There's something about a Vrabel-coached team playing at home, with what's looking to be an at least average QB getting to know his playbook more and more each passing week.
I'll be working on the rest intermittently throughout the day/night, as I'm working and then on daddy duty after I clock out. Hopefully all games have been quick-capped by the time you all wake up Wednesday morning. (I'm on PST.)
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@BIGDTITLE Looking forward to that GOY
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I'll be working on the rest intermittently throughout the day/night, as I'm working and then on daddy duty after I clock out. Hopefully all games have been quick-capped by the time you all wake up Wednesday morning. (I'm on PST.)
Desmond Ridder vs. Tim Boyle? Yeah... not a fun game to cap, nor watch. With the Jets you're just wondering how well their defense will shut down the other team, and how few points they'll be able to put up on offense.
The over/under is 34 right now.
Jets average points against (home): 20.75 pts Falcons average points scored per game (away): 15 pts
I was actually surprised that the Jets give up that many points, and it's similar to their overall points scored against (home and away). Anyway, maybe that's why the total is so sharp.
Digging a little deeper into some stats and I see that the Falcons have a defense that's just as good as the Jets, and in some ways better. If the Jets want to beat the Falcons at home, they're going to need at least an average-level of play at QB to get their run game going. Falcons and Jets rank near the top of the league in passing yards allowed, but there's a bigger delta when it comes to rushing yards.
Falcons may have the worst ST unit in the league, but I don't think there's a stark night/day difference between them and the Jets, and the numbers aren't significant enough to factor in. 112 yards (Falcons) vs. 140 yards (Jets).
Both teams fare poorly ATS.
Falcons are 3-8 ATS Jets are 4-5-1 ATS
Notable injuries/Falcons: no one relevant for capping purposes (maybe Taylor Heinicke, who I'd probably start in place of Ridder) Notable injuries/Jets: Mekhi Becton; Billy Turner (he's the starter, who was their backup, and I don't think it really matters due to how bad he is)
I was going to play the total, but the more I dig into this, the more I see a game that I may as well lay off. If I had to pick a side, I'd go with the better rushing team since both QBs can't throw. I also want the last 15 minutes of my life back after reviewing this matchup.
Lean: Falcons -2.5.
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Falcons -2.5 @ Jets
Desmond Ridder vs. Tim Boyle? Yeah... not a fun game to cap, nor watch. With the Jets you're just wondering how well their defense will shut down the other team, and how few points they'll be able to put up on offense.
The over/under is 34 right now.
Jets average points against (home): 20.75 pts Falcons average points scored per game (away): 15 pts
I was actually surprised that the Jets give up that many points, and it's similar to their overall points scored against (home and away). Anyway, maybe that's why the total is so sharp.
Digging a little deeper into some stats and I see that the Falcons have a defense that's just as good as the Jets, and in some ways better. If the Jets want to beat the Falcons at home, they're going to need at least an average-level of play at QB to get their run game going. Falcons and Jets rank near the top of the league in passing yards allowed, but there's a bigger delta when it comes to rushing yards.
Falcons may have the worst ST unit in the league, but I don't think there's a stark night/day difference between them and the Jets, and the numbers aren't significant enough to factor in. 112 yards (Falcons) vs. 140 yards (Jets).
Both teams fare poorly ATS.
Falcons are 3-8 ATS Jets are 4-5-1 ATS
Notable injuries/Falcons: no one relevant for capping purposes (maybe Taylor Heinicke, who I'd probably start in place of Ridder) Notable injuries/Jets: Mekhi Becton; Billy Turner (he's the starter, who was their backup, and I don't think it really matters due to how bad he is)
I was going to play the total, but the more I dig into this, the more I see a game that I may as well lay off. If I had to pick a side, I'd go with the better rushing team since both QBs can't throw. I also want the last 15 minutes of my life back after reviewing this matchup.
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