CD Newsletter week # 14

@JDD

More astonishing tidbits...

The Bills have had only 4 home games this year, after 13 weeks. 

They've played 3 straight otr, 4 of their last 5. And surprisingly traveled to Detroit twice b2b instead of staying in Detroit because of the blizzard. 

I'm just spinning the wheels in my brain a bit, but could the Bills be better than perceived? I know that's hard to fathom as they are a great team. But playing 8 games otr to 4 home thus far(call it 7-4-1 I guess for the neutral). They've been up against the crowd noise and without the home crowd where most teams to date are about 50/50.

The line of Jets +10 is absurdly high.

Fwiw, the Jets played indoors for the first time last week at Minnesota, that place gets loud. Could that of been a major factor in not being able to score a td in 5 redzone trips?

The Jets beat the Bills with Zach Wilson somehow.

10 pt spread here really? I have no idea what to do here.

@undermysac

I do not understand all the love for the jets.  Same as last week with all the titans love.  Same with pats vs Bills that primetime game

If they play this game 100 times, I bet the jets cover 30-35 of them.  The jets are a different team now than they were in the beginning of the season imo.  I think you are correct, I think the bills are much better than perceived by gamblers......and I think these 10 points are gonna make people try to get cute and be 'sharper' than necessary.

I put bills in tease obviously, but I am not even comfortable adding jets to a dog tease.  The chance of blowout is too likely.  Yes, they beat them with wilson, but the bills turned that ball over in redzone.....and there was a lot of bonehead mistakes by them.  They will clean them up, like they did vs Pats.  Pats handled jets, bills really should handle them too.  Allen's elbow potentially wasn't right then as well, threw 2 picks.  And they still had the ball with chance to tie......really tight game even with all the miscues.  Buffalo gave it away.  

I am not gonna lay the points, but it is bills or pass for me.  Bills in 1 tease thats it.   Revenge game also, at home.  If the jets somehow get up early in that game, I will fire a live bet with the quickness.  There is nothing wrong with acknowledging a team being good and covering. If that makes me square then so be it.  Like that cowboy game.  Why even bother taking the texans?  Is it more likely that they get blown out? Sure is.  is 17 a lot, yes, but are you betting them for a backdoor cover? is that smart?  When I bet the Lions +9 against the bills, I really thought the spread should have been about 4/5...6 the most, based on my own perception of the teams.   

Maybe I am overvaluing the chargers as well this week, but I think that entire line is wrong.  I have no clue how the chargers are catching 3, or 3.5 points at home.  I feel like that line should be PK.

Anything can obviously happen......just thinkin out loud.

I'm fine with laying the points with the Bills but need a pep talk concerning my Gints +7. 

Last 32 games between Steelers and Ravens.............the dog is 22-7-3 to cover

Last 24 games without Jimmy G at QB........Shanny is 9-15 ATS

Also, as chalk, he is only 3-8 ATS without Jimmy G.

@lostsailor

 Hang in there, hold, have faith

Wtf they smoked him so fast...

Christ, the Broncos are 1-11 o/u.

We at the Club Dirt Newsletter Organization should be deeply ashamed of ourselves for not being on these unders all year.

Sadly, I know what everyone here(including myself) is thinking. 

"If we get on now, we will lose"

After 12 games, the Steelers have only 8 passing td's, and 10 interceptions. 

In 8 starts, Pickett has 4 td's and 5 pics.

63-52-7 (+18.13)

Lions 1H ML(-135) *3.00/2.22

Lions 1H -1(-115) *1.00/.87

Giants +7(-110) *1.00/.91

Ravens +2.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Ravens ML(+125) *.50/.63

49ers -3.5(+105) *1.00/1.05

Chargers +3(+102) *1.00/1.02

Chargers ML(+155) *.25/.39

3 Team Parlay(+144) *.75/1.08

Bengals -1(-220), Titans -1(-165), Cowboys ML(-2200)

Just having a little tease fun today.  Perfect football weather at the Link.  Low to mid 40s, sunny, 0% chance of rain.  Those teams didn't turn the ball over once in last years game.  Here are some fun stats.....last 3 games between Army/Navy.......275 total rush attempts, 2 fumbles.

4 team 13 point teaser

Army +15.5

Over 19.5

Ravens +14.5

Chargers +16

-130  (.65/.50)

Some college hoops for the afternoon:  bet some yesterday on lookies......couple just now

Detroit +8

Cleveland +9

Utah Valley -3.5

Richmond +2.5

Wright +8.5

Mastodons +7

all just 1/4 unit.....may add more

I should have bet Yale.  I bet Yale often.  Stupid.  No balls

best player out scared me away

@JDD

 If it's the point guard don't regret it

The Army/Navy game today has gone under the total for 16 straight years. However if every one of those totals were 32 (same as today) the over would have gone 9-7. I bet over 14.5 for the 1H and had to pay (120) for it. What does this have to do with the Broncos? Absolutely nothing. 

@Getty3

Antoine Davis just hit his 7th 3 pointer............and he is about to break into the all time top 10 scoring list

And hopefully win me a bet in the process.......that line could not have been more wrong imo.   lotta game left, but Detroit is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Neither of my books even offered me a moneyline on it or I would have 10000% fired on it

The tackling in this Army/Navy game is outstanding. 

There will be players limping and carted off, often.

@BIGDTITLE

 Do you think people actually buy into the stuff in the CBB Mains that guy Fizzle wrote today?  He speaks as if he is actually being followed.  Who would give out those instructions? lol

If the guy liked the plays so much why is he telling people to buy out of the bets?  Because he has had a bad day? and he figures he will be wrong?  

This is why I rarely ever look around out there.  It amazes me that people may be actually tailing this person.  I almost wanna fire on the bets he wants to cancel lol.  He will probably hit them.  He seems like a nice enough guy though.  All over the place.  lol.  After looking through his instructions a gambler should safely assume they are better making their own decisions.....lol

I saw you in the thread so I was hoping you did not follow along.  I am taking a look at the games he is bailing out on now lol

Adding Norfolk also now. small.  Charlotte giving Detroit a game now.  Maybe I was lucky to not bet a ML.