What has happened to the Seahawks? Losers of 3 of their last 4, including an OT loss and a trip to Germany. It sure looks like the pendulum has swung hard on em, but that's what creates line value. This line was SF -1 on the look ahead and is heading for 4 soon.
Matchup wise, the Seahawks can't stop the run for shit, and the Niners run run run.
Brock Purdy is a spark plug, how do you not like this guy? He hurt his oblique last game and still did well. They're saying that he'll be able to play, but something to look out for. Debo will be out, he's a weapon that will be missed. From what I saw out of CMC yesterday, he looked as healthy and explosive as ever.
It'd be hard not to bet the Niners here, but be careful. Historically they don't do well in Seattle, and the Seahawks still have an outside shot at the division, and most certainly a wildcard.
I think we'd all be wise to take the great advice of Club Dirt and stay away from TNF, as Biscuit pointed out maybe he put a jinx on these games.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
TNF
49ers -3.5 @ Seahawks 43.5
What has happened to the Seahawks? Losers of 3 of their last 4, including an OT loss and a trip to Germany. It sure looks like the pendulum has swung hard on em, but that's what creates line value. This line was SF -1 on the look ahead and is heading for 4 soon.
Matchup wise, the Seahawks can't stop the run for shit, and the Niners run run run.
Brock Purdy is a spark plug, how do you not like this guy? He hurt his oblique last game and still did well. They're saying that he'll be able to play, but something to look out for. Debo will be out, he's a weapon that will be missed. From what I saw out of CMC yesterday, he looked as healthy and explosive as ever.
It'd be hard not to bet the Niners here, but be careful. Historically they don't do well in Seattle, and the Seahawks still have an outside shot at the division, and most certainly a wildcard.
I think we'd all be wise to take the great advice of Club Dirt and stay away from TNF, as Biscuit pointed out maybe he put a jinx on these games.
We talk about the Vikings fugazi record all the time. We acknowledge every week that we lose betting against them more often than not. Yesterday was the spot to fade them, as was the week vs the Cowboys.
I'll gladly stay away from fading them this week, as this is a get right spot vs the competition. What will the Colts be playing for? Jeff Saturday is 1-3, and looking like just a place holder till the off season. Colts off of a bye may actually be a negative here. Kind of like when you just get off of a vacation and have to work on a Monday afterwards, it's a rather unmotivated time.
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Saturday:
Colts +4 @ Vikings 47.5
The Vikings were -5 on the look ahead.
We talk about the Vikings fugazi record all the time. We acknowledge every week that we lose betting against them more often than not. Yesterday was the spot to fade them, as was the week vs the Cowboys.
I'll gladly stay away from fading them this week, as this is a get right spot vs the competition. What will the Colts be playing for? Jeff Saturday is 1-3, and looking like just a place holder till the off season. Colts off of a bye may actually be a negative here. Kind of like when you just get off of a vacation and have to work on a Monday afterwards, it's a rather unmotivated time.
Do we still think that Watson is an upgrade over Brissett, and that Huntley is a downgrade of Lamar? This is the perfect situation for us as sharp bettors who like dogs. One unforseen caveat before yesterday was that Huntley got hurt. Concussion protocol. He looked pretty sprite running into the locker room though.
The Browns dream crusher came yesterday. They're done. Do the players like Watson? He's just an over paid dude that has to play because the Browns organization doesn't want to look like idiots in sitting a guy that they paid so much. The more I think about it, it's too late, they look like idiots.
This line tells us that the Ravens would be what +.5 on a neutral, -2.5 in Baltimore? Weird stuff.
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Saturday:
Ravens +2.5 @ Cleveland 37
Look ahead was +3, and I took it.
Do we still think that Watson is an upgrade over Brissett, and that Huntley is a downgrade of Lamar? This is the perfect situation for us as sharp bettors who like dogs. One unforseen caveat before yesterday was that Huntley got hurt. Concussion protocol. He looked pretty sprite running into the locker room though.
The Browns dream crusher came yesterday. They're done. Do the players like Watson? He's just an over paid dude that has to play because the Browns organization doesn't want to look like idiots in sitting a guy that they paid so much. The more I think about it, it's too late, they look like idiots.
This line tells us that the Ravens would be what +.5 on a neutral, -2.5 in Baltimore? Weird stuff.
The total automatically tells me that it's a Bills type of game here.
The rookie coach down in Miami is starting to show us that he is not adjusting to teams who have adjusted to him. The Niners might have wrote the book in how to defend that explosive passing game. And the Bolts did a copy cat last night, and it happened to be a scheme that they were used to that has worked vs the Chiefs for some time.
McDaniel stayed bullish in both games, and refused to run the ball. He had 8 attempts vs SF, 8! Last night vs the Bolts(a team who isn't good against the run) he attempted 16 runs.
There is some snow in the forecast in Buffalo. Miami hasn't had a cold out door game year to date, and the Bills have revenge on their minds.
How does Miami score vs this D? They only mustered 21 last time in Miami.
Yet, I can't let myself lay 7.5 here in division.
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Saturday:
Dolphins +7.5 @ Bills 43.5
Look ahead was 6.5
The total automatically tells me that it's a Bills type of game here.
The rookie coach down in Miami is starting to show us that he is not adjusting to teams who have adjusted to him. The Niners might have wrote the book in how to defend that explosive passing game. And the Bolts did a copy cat last night, and it happened to be a scheme that they were used to that has worked vs the Chiefs for some time.
McDaniel stayed bullish in both games, and refused to run the ball. He had 8 attempts vs SF, 8! Last night vs the Bolts(a team who isn't good against the run) he attempted 16 runs.
There is some snow in the forecast in Buffalo. Miami hasn't had a cold out door game year to date, and the Bills have revenge on their minds.
How does Miami score vs this D? They only mustered 21 last time in Miami.
The Lions are arguably the hottest team in football. Winning 5 of their last 6, with that one loss vs the Bills where they could of won. The Lions are finally over the +- pt differential on the season at +2.
The Jets have lost 3 of their last 4, all losses otr. The one win in that span was vs the Bears, a spot we identified as a huge let down for the Bears. It wasn't even a contest. The Jets remain at +21 on the year, credit to that defense.
Biggest concern here is the status of Mike White. He got knocked around like a pinata by the Bills. When Matt Milano hit hit him, I didn't think he was getting up. Tough kid.
We could see the best battle of the trenches to date. The Lions O line vs the Jets D line is going to be a brawl.
We will see Sauce vs Amon Ra St Brown. 50/50 right there. The kid from Bama got his first nfl td last week.
This is going to be a great game if you are a lover of football, and the spread with the total represents it.
The Jets need this game like blood to stay play off relevant. Same for the Lions.
We must look at the Lions out doors though, this could be their one weakness on Sunday.
Real hard game for me to pick, but probably the one I want to watch the most.
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Lions pk @ Jets 44.5
The Lions are arguably the hottest team in football. Winning 5 of their last 6, with that one loss vs the Bills where they could of won. The Lions are finally over the +- pt differential on the season at +2.
The Jets have lost 3 of their last 4, all losses otr. The one win in that span was vs the Bears, a spot we identified as a huge let down for the Bears. It wasn't even a contest. The Jets remain at +21 on the year, credit to that defense.
Biggest concern here is the status of Mike White. He got knocked around like a pinata by the Bills. When Matt Milano hit hit him, I didn't think he was getting up. Tough kid.
We could see the best battle of the trenches to date. The Lions O line vs the Jets D line is going to be a brawl.
We will see Sauce vs Amon Ra St Brown. 50/50 right there. The kid from Bama got his first nfl td last week.
This is going to be a great game if you are a lover of football, and the spread with the total represents it.
The Jets need this game like blood to stay play off relevant. Same for the Lions.
We must look at the Lions out doors though, this could be their one weakness on Sunday.
Real hard game for me to pick, but probably the one I want to watch the most.
Dallas struggled and nearly lost as 17 pt favs, and the Jaguars won as 4 pt dogs. So the line adjusted accordingly. Note, it didn't move through any key #'s.
Could of the Cowboys down played their opponent? Absolutely. Could of the Jaguars gotten lucky with 3 recovered fumbles? Absolutely. Add in an interception, the boxscore was relatively close and the Jags had only 5 minutes of more t.o.p.
The Jags will need to run the ball on the Cowboys to win this game, I don't know if they will be able to. The last thing they want is to put Trevor in harms way vs that pass rush.
The Cowboys have the Eagles on deck, could they look ahead? Hard to say, as their performance vs the Texans will not sit well with Mccarthy.
We have to look at all the playoff scenarios and possibilities. I have no leans on this game.
Getty and Hugh, let the handicapping battle ensue. I'll be all ears.
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Dallas -4.5 @ Jaguars 48
Look ahead was 6.5
Dallas struggled and nearly lost as 17 pt favs, and the Jaguars won as 4 pt dogs. So the line adjusted accordingly. Note, it didn't move through any key #'s.
Could of the Cowboys down played their opponent? Absolutely. Could of the Jaguars gotten lucky with 3 recovered fumbles? Absolutely. Add in an interception, the boxscore was relatively close and the Jags had only 5 minutes of more t.o.p.
The Jags will need to run the ball on the Cowboys to win this game, I don't know if they will be able to. The last thing they want is to put Trevor in harms way vs that pass rush.
The Cowboys have the Eagles on deck, could they look ahead? Hard to say, as their performance vs the Texans will not sit well with Mccarthy.
We have to look at all the playoff scenarios and possibilities. I have no leans on this game.
Getty and Hugh, let the handicapping battle ensue. I'll be all ears.
Well, do the Chiefs win by 13, 14, or 17? Fucked if I know.
Can the Texans play out their ass 2 weeks in a row? ^see above response.
I didn't pay much attention to either of these teams games on Sunday, minus the 4th quarter of the Chiefs where I was rooting for Getty.
The best highlight of the week was Willie Gay intercepting Russell Wilson, then stiff arming him into the ground as he ran in for a td. Could there be a bigger low point for Russ? Answer is yes, as he got a concussion later.
Strangely enough, if this one pic 6 doesn't happen, the Broncos win by 1.
What is going on with the qb situation in Houston? Did Davis Mills get hurt, or benched?
I don't want any part of this game.
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Chiefs -14 @ Texans 48.5
Well, do the Chiefs win by 13, 14, or 17? Fucked if I know.
Can the Texans play out their ass 2 weeks in a row? ^see above response.
I didn't pay much attention to either of these teams games on Sunday, minus the 4th quarter of the Chiefs where I was rooting for Getty.
The best highlight of the week was Willie Gay intercepting Russell Wilson, then stiff arming him into the ground as he ran in for a td. Could there be a bigger low point for Russ? Answer is yes, as he got a concussion later.
Strangely enough, if this one pic 6 doesn't happen, the Broncos win by 1.
What is going on with the qb situation in Houston? Did Davis Mills get hurt, or benched?
Look ahead was 8, and I took it, probably put too much on it.
What is there to say here that everyone doesn't all ready know? The Eagles are 3 times the team that the Bears are. Are they capable of winning by 20+? Yes, easily.
I'll hold my bet as the situation is one where I can't pass up, ever. The Eagles are in the midst of 3 straight road games book ended by divisional games, with Dallas on deck to boot.
The Bears are off a bye, and have nothing to lose with Justin Fields at qb.
Interesting coaching matchup. Nick Sirianni and Matt Eberflus were coordinators for Frank Reich in Indy for quite some time. Who knows who better? Are they buds? If the Eagles are up by 2 scores late in the game, will Sirianni get off the gas as to not embarrass his friend?
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Eagles -9 @ Chicago 48
Look ahead was 8, and I took it, probably put too much on it.
What is there to say here that everyone doesn't all ready know? The Eagles are 3 times the team that the Bears are. Are they capable of winning by 20+? Yes, easily.
I'll hold my bet as the situation is one where I can't pass up, ever. The Eagles are in the midst of 3 straight road games book ended by divisional games, with Dallas on deck to boot.
The Bears are off a bye, and have nothing to lose with Justin Fields at qb.
Interesting coaching matchup. Nick Sirianni and Matt Eberflus were coordinators for Frank Reich in Indy for quite some time. Who knows who better? Are they buds? If the Eagles are up by 2 scores late in the game, will Sirianni get off the gas as to not embarrass his friend?
How bad is Kenny Pickett hurt? Trubisky looked awesome on every throw that wasn't one of the 3 pics.
Some how the Panthers can still win the nfc south believe it or not. They are a really tough and gritty team. When their o line leans on a defense it's hard to get off of their blocks. It feels like any RB they plug in runs well, and runs hard.
This team could easily be 7-6, as their first 2 games of the year they lost by a combined 5 points. They also lost by 3 in OT vs the Falcons in week 8. And Matt Rhule probably doesn't get fired.
Pitt's run D is middle of the pack on the year, 15th giving up 115 yards per game. But in their last 3 games have given up 157 which is 26th in that span.
I think that's where this game should be handicapped. The total of 38.5 agrees.
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Steelers +2.5 @ Panthers 38.5
I believe the look ahead was pk? Not sure.
How bad is Kenny Pickett hurt? Trubisky looked awesome on every throw that wasn't one of the 3 pics.
Some how the Panthers can still win the nfc south believe it or not. They are a really tough and gritty team. When their o line leans on a defense it's hard to get off of their blocks. It feels like any RB they plug in runs well, and runs hard.
This team could easily be 7-6, as their first 2 games of the year they lost by a combined 5 points. They also lost by 3 in OT vs the Falcons in week 8. And Matt Rhule probably doesn't get fired.
Pitt's run D is middle of the pack on the year, 15th giving up 115 yards per game. But in their last 3 games have given up 157 which is 26th in that span.
I think that's where this game should be handicapped. The total of 38.5 agrees.
Gonna be hard for Texican to match intensity of last week they were up for bragging rights sorta kinda. I'm not kidding i believe i have lost laying dd 3 maybe 4 times, but i just don't see the Texicans covering.
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Gonna be hard for Texican to match intensity of last week they were up for bragging rights sorta kinda. I'm not kidding i believe i have lost laying dd 3 maybe 4 times, but i just don't see the Texicans covering.
I'll be biased here, as I took the Falcons big +4.5 and ML.
Both teams off a bye. One team has an outside shot at winning the the nfc south, the other doesn't.
One team is changing their quarterback, a rookie that no one knows anything about. And I suspect that he can be better than Marriota. Especially in the running game since he is young and has fresh legs. And the Falcons love to run with their qb, or 6 back offense as Michael Lombardi puts it.
The Saints have faced mobile qb's 3 times this year. Week 1 vs these Falcons and Mariotta, gave up 26 pts...with a missed extra pt and fg from ATL. Week 7 at AZ vs Murray, gave up 42. And week 9 vs Baltimore and Lamaar, gave up 27.
In last week's thread I pointed out that the Falcons are better by dvoa, and have a better record and +- pt diff vs common opponents.
The only way the Falcons lose is if Desmond Ridder completely falls on his face. I don't think Andy Dalton is beating them.
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Falcons +4 @ Saints 43.5
I'll be biased here, as I took the Falcons big +4.5 and ML.
Both teams off a bye. One team has an outside shot at winning the the nfc south, the other doesn't.
One team is changing their quarterback, a rookie that no one knows anything about. And I suspect that he can be better than Marriota. Especially in the running game since he is young and has fresh legs. And the Falcons love to run with their qb, or 6 back offense as Michael Lombardi puts it.
The Saints have faced mobile qb's 3 times this year. Week 1 vs these Falcons and Mariotta, gave up 26 pts...with a missed extra pt and fg from ATL. Week 7 at AZ vs Murray, gave up 42. And week 9 vs Baltimore and Lamaar, gave up 27.
In last week's thread I pointed out that the Falcons are better by dvoa, and have a better record and +- pt diff vs common opponents.
The only way the Falcons lose is if Desmond Ridder completely falls on his face. I don't think Andy Dalton is beating them.
Bet the Lions +3 @ -112 for a good bit on the lookahead. I bet it, then thought about it, then bet it some more right afterwards. There was zero chance in my mind that line stayed there.
I am all in Lions. Jets are experiencing regression, this is not surprising. That game is not even up at my local right now.
I like the Falcons angle, I may look into that more, I really like them on a tease.
Also agree with take on Minny and Bills.
Wish my book that gives me better teasers would put the Lions and Bills games back on the board lol. I wanna hammer these.
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Bet the Lions +3 @ -112 for a good bit on the lookahead. I bet it, then thought about it, then bet it some more right afterwards. There was zero chance in my mind that line stayed there.
I am all in Lions. Jets are experiencing regression, this is not surprising. That game is not even up at my local right now.
I like the Falcons angle, I may look into that more, I really like them on a tease.
Also agree with take on Minny and Bills.
Wish my book that gives me better teasers would put the Lions and Bills games back on the board lol. I wanna hammer these.
I believe the look ahead was Raiders -1, not sure.
Patriots yet to play, mnf vs AZ.
The Raiders had their dreams crushed on Thursday by Baker Mayfield. All while being a Ram for only 3 days.
So there's a lot going on here. The Raiders on 10 days rest, will it matter though as they should be sulking. And the Pats on short rest playing on mnf.
A lot will depend on line movement whether the Pats win or lose tonight.
The main story line will be Josh McDaniels vs his teacher in Bill Belichick.
It feels like a handicapping nightmare as of now, unless we find something pertinent to talk about throughout the week. I don't see anything concrete as of now.
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Patriots -1 @ Raiders 45
I believe the look ahead was Raiders -1, not sure.
Patriots yet to play, mnf vs AZ.
The Raiders had their dreams crushed on Thursday by Baker Mayfield. All while being a Ram for only 3 days.
So there's a lot going on here. The Raiders on 10 days rest, will it matter though as they should be sulking. And the Pats on short rest playing on mnf.
A lot will depend on line movement whether the Pats win or lose tonight.
The main story line will be Josh McDaniels vs his teacher in Bill Belichick.
It feels like a handicapping nightmare as of now, unless we find something pertinent to talk about throughout the week. I don't see anything concrete as of now.
Ok, I see a dog to target. Purely on the basis that the public will be all over the Bolts after that prime time win vs the fish, and that the Titans bit it hard vs the Jags. Remember the 4 turnovers.
I will have to look at where this line was last week, and how the value has swung, as I'm sure it has.
The Titans are still 7-6 and leading their division, even after 3 straight losses. They have 3 winnable games of their last 4, and this is one of them.
I don't think that it will be easy, but to be a 3pt dog is crazy. Last I checked they are still better than the Chargers by dvoa, we'll see where they are tomorrow when that updates.
Derrick Henry should beast vs the Bolts run D. How the fish attacked that D last night was inexcusable.
For the Chargers, I can definitely say that they looked healthy on offense, and that the Dolphins made a critical mistake in drafting Tua over Herbert. Yet they had 3 key guys on defense out, checking their status is a must.
This is a wise guy spot no doubt. Let's look it over the next couple days to make sure that it's a decent bet.
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Titans +3 @ Chargers 46
Can't remember the look ahead line.
Ok, I see a dog to target. Purely on the basis that the public will be all over the Bolts after that prime time win vs the fish, and that the Titans bit it hard vs the Jags. Remember the 4 turnovers.
I will have to look at where this line was last week, and how the value has swung, as I'm sure it has.
The Titans are still 7-6 and leading their division, even after 3 straight losses. They have 3 winnable games of their last 4, and this is one of them.
I don't think that it will be easy, but to be a 3pt dog is crazy. Last I checked they are still better than the Chargers by dvoa, we'll see where they are tomorrow when that updates.
Derrick Henry should beast vs the Bolts run D. How the fish attacked that D last night was inexcusable.
For the Chargers, I can definitely say that they looked healthy on offense, and that the Dolphins made a critical mistake in drafting Tua over Herbert. Yet they had 3 key guys on defense out, checking their status is a must.
This is a wise guy spot no doubt. Let's look it over the next couple days to make sure that it's a decent bet.
Atlanta +4.5/ML is the only thing signed, sealed, and delivered for me thus far but some of your thought processes has me intrigued with other games as well. I actually agree that a red hot Lions vs. a cold Jets team in NY is a most interesting game with the loser likely out of the playoff race.
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Brilliant effort ol' chap.
Atlanta +4.5/ML is the only thing signed, sealed, and delivered for me thus far but some of your thought processes has me intrigued with other games as well. I actually agree that a red hot Lions vs. a cold Jets team in NY is a most interesting game with the loser likely out of the playoff race.
Fuck, I lean the Bucs. Do or die game, they have the Panthers and Falcons on their heels. And Tom Brady's only ticket to the playoffs is through the division.
They hit their lowest point of the season vs the Niners. That was an obliteration. And Brady lost to a qb making his first ever start.
Why isn't this line Bengals -7? Seriously, how do the bucs stand any chance, the Bengals aren't just any team. And they're tied for the division lead with the Ravens.
The Bucs WILL NOT be able to run. It's not as if they can vs anyone, nor do they try.
Burrow is a killer, 17-3 ats last 20.
The books have spoken though, hot damn it, the least I will do is stay away from Cincy. My belly wants me to bet the Buccaneers.
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Bengals -3.5 @ Buccaneers 43
Fuck, I lean the Bucs. Do or die game, they have the Panthers and Falcons on their heels. And Tom Brady's only ticket to the playoffs is through the division.
They hit their lowest point of the season vs the Niners. That was an obliteration. And Brady lost to a qb making his first ever start.
Why isn't this line Bengals -7? Seriously, how do the bucs stand any chance, the Bengals aren't just any team. And they're tied for the division lead with the Ravens.
The Bucs WILL NOT be able to run. It's not as if they can vs anyone, nor do they try.
Burrow is a killer, 17-3 ats last 20.
The books have spoken though, hot damn it, the least I will do is stay away from Cincy. My belly wants me to bet the Buccaneers.
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