Deebo Samuel likely out for the remainder of the regular season. Brock Purdy questionable for TNF. If he's a no go the 49ers are down to a 4th string QB who is 56 year old journeyman Josh Johnson. This is Johnson's 4th time as a 49er (is that a record?) .His football history between numerous stints with numerous NFL teams plus his years in the UFL and XFL is fascinating. He has been under contract with 17 different football teams in his career. (definitely a record )
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Deebo Samuel likely out for the remainder of the regular season. Brock Purdy questionable for TNF. If he's a no go the 49ers are down to a 4th string QB who is 56 year old journeyman Josh Johnson. This is Johnson's 4th time as a 49er (is that a record?) .His football history between numerous stints with numerous NFL teams plus his years in the UFL and XFL is fascinating. He has been under contract with 17 different football teams in his career. (definitely a record )
I think my card this week is pretty much complete. Lookaheads. The rest will be teases.
Chargers -1.5 @ -112 1 unit
Lions +3 @ -112 3 units
Steelers -1.5 @ -105 1 unit
Cards +2 @ -105 1 unit
Bengals -2.5 @ -112 1 units
Bengals 1 unit -110 to win division. I bit last week. Only because I don't like them
Sauce Gardner to win DROY 1 unit @ +1050 odds.
I have about 20 other statistical futures, which when they all get graded, based on where they are or look like they will be, should net +0.35 units. Exciting. The Lamar Jackson, Zach Wilson, and Matt Stafford yardage unders, plus the Miles Sanders yards and TD props are evening out bad bets like Kyle Pitts yardage over, Kittle yards over, and the Bucs win total .
I think that the Bucs, in that division, are the biggest bust of the year. Who else? Denver? Raiders? Did anyone really expect either of them to do what they hadn't done? These Bucs are a poop pillow. I can't believe I confidently bet their team total over.
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I think my card this week is pretty much complete. Lookaheads. The rest will be teases.
Chargers -1.5 @ -112 1 unit
Lions +3 @ -112 3 units
Steelers -1.5 @ -105 1 unit
Cards +2 @ -105 1 unit
Bengals -2.5 @ -112 1 units
Bengals 1 unit -110 to win division. I bit last week. Only because I don't like them
Sauce Gardner to win DROY 1 unit @ +1050 odds.
I have about 20 other statistical futures, which when they all get graded, based on where they are or look like they will be, should net +0.35 units. Exciting. The Lamar Jackson, Zach Wilson, and Matt Stafford yardage unders, plus the Miles Sanders yards and TD props are evening out bad bets like Kyle Pitts yardage over, Kittle yards over, and the Bucs win total .
I think that the Bucs, in that division, are the biggest bust of the year. Who else? Denver? Raiders? Did anyone really expect either of them to do what they hadn't done? These Bucs are a poop pillow. I can't believe I confidently bet their team total over.
I have about 20 other statistical futures, which when they all get graded, based on where they are or look like they will be, should net +0.35 units. Exciting.
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Quote Originally Posted by JDD:
I have about 20 other statistical futures, which when they all get graded, based on where they are or look like they will be, should net +0.35 units. Exciting.
Saturday: Ravens +2.5 @ Cleveland 37 Look ahead was +3, and I took it. Do we still think that Watson is an upgrade over Brissett, and that Huntley is a downgrade of Lamar? This is the perfect situation for us as sharp bettors who like dogs. One unforseen caveat before yesterday was that Huntley got hurt. Concussion protocol. He looked pretty sprite running into the locker room though. The Browns dream crusher came yesterday. They're done. Do the players like Watson? He's just an over paid dude that has to play because the Browns organization doesn't want to look like idiots in sitting a guy that they paid so much. The more I think about it, it's too late, they look like idiots. This line tells us that the Ravens would be what +.5 on a neutral, -2.5 in Baltimore? Weird stuff.
Still on the same podcast. Chris Andrews just said, "the Browns signing DeSean Watson is arguably the worst contract in the history of American sports"
He also pointed out that he won only 4 games with the Texans in his final year there. Then the rub n tug scandal
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Saturday: Ravens +2.5 @ Cleveland 37 Look ahead was +3, and I took it. Do we still think that Watson is an upgrade over Brissett, and that Huntley is a downgrade of Lamar? This is the perfect situation for us as sharp bettors who like dogs. One unforseen caveat before yesterday was that Huntley got hurt. Concussion protocol. He looked pretty sprite running into the locker room though. The Browns dream crusher came yesterday. They're done. Do the players like Watson? He's just an over paid dude that has to play because the Browns organization doesn't want to look like idiots in sitting a guy that they paid so much. The more I think about it, it's too late, they look like idiots. This line tells us that the Ravens would be what +.5 on a neutral, -2.5 in Baltimore? Weird stuff.
Still on the same podcast. Chris Andrews just said, "the Browns signing DeSean Watson is arguably the worst contract in the history of American sports"
He also pointed out that he won only 4 games with the Texans in his final year there. Then the rub n tug scandal
It makes me physically ill to think I'll be hoping the Browns win this weekend to help my Bengals division future. With that said, I'm sitting out the remaining few weeks as my regular season futures/props are all looking good except for the Lions Under 6.5 wins. No need to hurt those winnings and with all these injuries, weird game days and teams quitting I'm not messing with it.
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It makes me physically ill to think I'll be hoping the Browns win this weekend to help my Bengals division future. With that said, I'm sitting out the remaining few weeks as my regular season futures/props are all looking good except for the Lions Under 6.5 wins. No need to hurt those winnings and with all these injuries, weird game days and teams quitting I'm not messing with it.
As far as the "just pick the winner and don't worry about the spread" goes, there is a glaring exception. In the Mahomes era KC as a divisional road favorite of 7 or more is 8-0 S/U and 1-7 ATS. What does this have to do with this week? Absolutely nothing because even though they're a road favorite of 7+ they are not playing in division.
Hugh knows the Jaguars are going to catch the Cowboys sleeping for the 2nd straight week. Dallas has nothing to play for yet and Jax has a path to the playoffs with a win. I see early money is on Jax.
On a very sad note I realize that college football coach Mike Leach is near death after a cardiac episode. Leach is a character. Pete Prisco shared some stories about him when he was a regular on the Jax sports radio scene. They would always end in a laugh. Very funny, eccentric man. Prayers to Mike
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As far as the "just pick the winner and don't worry about the spread" goes, there is a glaring exception. In the Mahomes era KC as a divisional road favorite of 7 or more is 8-0 S/U and 1-7 ATS. What does this have to do with this week? Absolutely nothing because even though they're a road favorite of 7+ they are not playing in division.
Hugh knows the Jaguars are going to catch the Cowboys sleeping for the 2nd straight week. Dallas has nothing to play for yet and Jax has a path to the playoffs with a win. I see early money is on Jax.
On a very sad note I realize that college football coach Mike Leach is near death after a cardiac episode. Leach is a character. Pete Prisco shared some stories about him when he was a regular on the Jax sports radio scene. They would always end in a laugh. Very funny, eccentric man. Prayers to Mike
Significant move, Cardinals move from pick to -2.5 @ Denver. I'm assuming Russell Wilson will be out for sure...but is that a bad thing? The Cardinals vs Pats hasn't kicked off yet. I'm tempted to bet Denver +2.5 now, as the Cardinals could sustain injuries and will be on a short week. JDD, you are in a nice middling zone
What's the total? That game could go under 30. Ugly ass football at Mile High.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Significant move, Cardinals move from pick to -2.5 @ Denver. I'm assuming Russell Wilson will be out for sure...but is that a bad thing? The Cardinals vs Pats hasn't kicked off yet. I'm tempted to bet Denver +2.5 now, as the Cardinals could sustain injuries and will be on a short week. JDD, you are in a nice middling zone
What's the total? That game could go under 30. Ugly ass football at Mile High.
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