CD Newsletter Week 16

Hopefully this weeks "write ups" are short since we are nearing the end of the season and no surprises left.  Everyone knows who everyone is.  Lets get to it. 

- Saints at LAR  -4  (46)

Mcvay coaching at a ridiculous level right now. Allen not so much.  Both teams fighting for a playoff spot so this is a huge game for both sides.  Rams getting Kyren back has been the difference in this offense.  Even with the injuries and time missed he's approaching 1000 yards rushing and will eclipse that this week.  Its been 15 weeks and I still don't know who NOLA truly is as a team.  They are at their best when the work the Swiss army knife in there as much as they can yet last week he had 1 passing attempt and 1 rushing attempt.  Coming off of a mild injury but still not being utilized is puzzling to me.  That said they were still able to take care of a terrible Giants team and have set themselves up for a decent shot at the playoffs.  Lean Aints plus the points. 

- Bungles at Steel +2  (37)

Browning continues to impress.  Proving the scouts wrong for passing on him when he had a very solid college career at Wash.  Filling in very nicely for Burrow.  However, the injuries are starting to pile up for Cincy.  Chase, Boyd, Awuzie etc.  Its all but over for Pitt and possibly the Tomlin era.  They simply can't get anything out of the QB position and one of the reasons I actually thought they would make a push for A Rod a couple of years ago and actually laid some coin down on it because its really hurting them from being a solid playoff type team in a very tough division.  However, this game still gives me pause because they are at home and still a division game that you know they will get up for even though their playoff hopes are all but dashed.  (4.9%) chance of sneaking in.  No lean anywhere here.  Not even the total.   Check the weather 

- Bills at LAC +11  (44)

Bills with new life and 2 very winnable games upcoming until they end the season in south beach which could end up being a critical game or meaningless.  New OC deciding to run the ball down our throats all night is a strategy that seems to be working well and is helping limit turnovers ( Allen didn't throw a pick this game, actually barely threw at all). As discussed in earlier threads the Chargers have quit but with the fired coach angle do we get one more chance at a DD cover?  Fuck if I know, I won't be putting any hard earned money on this Chargers team so ill leave it up to you fellas to find any angle worth backing here.  One thing from a fantasy prospective is, Josh Allens projected points for this game are the lowest he's had all year.  And this was BEFORE the game plan they executed on the Cows.  Take that for what its worth.  Looks like another run it down your throat game for Buff.  

cont.......

cont.....

- Colts at Falcons -1  (44.5)

Another week of WTF is Arthur smith doing with their 1st round pick?  I don't get it.  7 carries?  1 catch?  You have a weapon you choose to never use.  Shit or get off the pot.  Falcons playoff chances took a massive hit last week and it doesn't get any rosier after this one with 2 on the road at the Sacs and at the Aints.  They only have 2 road wins all year and that was against the GD Jets who everyone beats and Tampa.  As for this one the Colts are still very much in the hunt for the division thanks to a Jags loss last week ( actually 3 straight but who's counting ) and would think they are gonna be the hungrier team coming into this one.  Status of Pittman very much in the air and I doubt he goes which limits them a ton on offense but looks like Moss will go.  According to him.  well see.  2 dome teams on turf so I get why the total is 44.5 but I still lean under here in an important game.  

- Pack at Panther +5  (36.5)

Pack losing 2 straight after winning 3 straight to get the town talking playoffs only for that door to be immediately shut.  Unless something crazy happens they look to home again in January.  What can be said about the other side?  I don't tune into many Panthers games for obvious reasons so if anyone else has anything on this team speak up.  They are unwatchable and I don't wanna spend any more time on this one.  

- Browns at Texicans -2.5  (42.5)

This one is rather interesting.  Will we see Keenum again?  Browns defense even with the injuries is still elite but don't travel all too well.  Texans favored says a ton here.  Who needs this game more?  I can't tell to be honest.  Browns finish the season with 2 winnable games in Jets and Bengals but with their destiny right in front of them they'll likely lose one of them.   line says they lose this one too but they somehow seem to pull out improbable wins.  That D and Hopkins masks a lot wrong with this team.  Flacco turning back the clock. Other side of the ball, DeMeco has this team believing and outside of Stroud they are getting healthy at the right time getting a lot of their weapons back. Tough one to call here.  Lean to the Brownies if it gets to 3.

- Hawks at Titans +2.5  (41.5)

What a win last night with DK leading that drive with some massive catches and getting them back to the line of scrimmage quickly.  I had u45.5 receiving for JSN so that last TD can suggit but whatever.  Once again the team who travels the most now has to fly to a very tough place to play in TN on a short week and try and most passed that emotional win and do it again if they want any chance at the postseason.  I assume Geno will give this one a go but even with Tenn last in the division and looking ahead to next season and what there plan will be at RB I still lean to Vrabel as a home dog playing spoiler.  Especially if Rams lose Thursday.  

cont.

cont.

- Commanderskins at Jets -3  (37.5)

Who the eff is making the Jets faves?  Oh, because they play a lame duck team who's lost 5 straight and 7 of their last 8.  Gave a decent effort yesterday in spite of Howell's lackluster performance ultimately getting him benched for Brissett ( where the hell has he been) who puts up a perfect passer rating.  Go figure.  I imagine this is one of those scenarios where the oddsmakers are sitting in a room and looking at each other saying " what do you have?"  "ionno, what do you have"?   fuck it, lets just put a 3 out there.           go fish.  

- Lions at Minny +3  (47)

Massive massive game for Vikings here.  3 straight division games actually to end the year.  The loss to the Brownings last week actually dropped their chances of making the playoffs but they still have around a 53% chance of getting in and its all right there in front of them.  JJ seems to be getting his sea legs and Chandler has been a nice fill in at RB. If they can limit the turnovers against a Lions D that I'm still not sold on this is a very winnable game for them at US Bank.  Lions on the other hand with extra rest and off a blowout dominating win against Denver can smell the playoffs and looking for home field.  I really can't see either offense being slowed down here so I lean the over.  Matter of fact, make that my first play            O47 -105 for 2u

- Jags at Bucs -1  (43)

what a resurgence for little Baker down in Tampa.  Goes into Lambeau and has a perfect passer rating which has never happened.  What to make of that?  Only conclusion is the Pack have quit and are planning Mexico trips for January.   For the Getty's this HAS to be a game they win and get back on track.  the D for Tampa is banged up so Ridley should have a field day with Jones gathering in all the underneath stuff.  T Law will likely look brilliant and Tampa and Baker will fall back to earth like the Meh they are.  Gettys ML is the lean.

- Cows at Dolphins -1.5  (51)

Doesn't get any easier on our run D going from Cook Johnson and sometimes Allen to Mostert and Achane.  Buffalo exploited our lack of size at LB and to be honest, Quinn should have adjusted and put Micah back at LB once he saw what they were doing.  Last thing we needed was another pass rusher when they weren't passing.  Seems simple and yet no adjustments.  Dolphins D looking like a completely new unit the last 5 weeks but they will be tested by a pissed off Cows team coming off a very embarrassing offensive effort.  Depending on weather this feels like an over game. Something around 30-28.  Will wait to see what these lines do.  The 51 is already shaded on my book.  

cont.

- Cards at Bears  -4.5  (44.5)

Bears D starting to really come around. Is Sweat the best pass rusher in the league now?  2.5 sacks and a FF.  It makes no sense for Chicago to win any of these next 3 games but tell that to the players.  AZ, then Atlanta, then GB.  Prolly win all 3 and screw up their draft position but is what it is.  The offense looked pretty awful last week but more of a product of the Browns D than anything.  Not sure JF is making a case to be the guy long term or not but he has 3 games to wow em.  Will be a nice test chasing Mighty Mouse around all day.  Slight lean to an over game here.  Gut feeling.  

- Pats at Broncos  -6.5  (34.5)

I simply don't care.  Play the under and hope.  

- Raiders at Chefs -10  (41.5)

Interesting total for this one when they put up 63 last game. These 2 teams tend to play over games with only 1 being an under in the last 4-5 years.  The Chefs lack of talent on offense is def catching up with them and missing Pacheco the last 2 has shown.  Mahomes tends to hold the ball way too long and I don't know if thats a product of him trying to play hero ball or guys just simply aren't open.  GL trying that strategy against Crosby who has a motor that doesn't stop.  Lean to the Raidazz plus the points.  The Chefs stay getting favorable lines and they simply aren't covering them.

- Giants at Eagles  -12  (42.5)

Division game, DD spread.  Normally you would take the points all day long but the Eagles need a win like blood and should get it here. I don't think it will come in any type of dominating effort since something def looks off with them the last few weeks.  Could simply be fatigue or Jalen hiding some injury.  Either way I'm not touching this one. Maybe the under since I don't see NY putting up more than 13-14

- Ravens at Niners  -5.5  (46.5)

Game of the week Imo.  True litmus test for BR's and potential SB matchup on Christmas night.  Clash of potential MVP's as well.  Ill let you decide who I'm referencing.   Run game for Balty took a huge hit with Keatons gruesome injury so they will lean heavy on Gus and likely mix in Hill on passing downs.  The nappy headed hoe will have to be better in the passing game this week and limit turnovers especially if SF gets up to an early lead.  Both teams looking to continue their winning ways to secure top spots in their conferences with home field throughout.  Not gonna dive too much into this one since I'm tired of typing and want this to be done with.  Last newsletter I do this season. This shit is exhausting.  

Discuss.  GO. 

Great ink....

One last valiant effort

Awesome job.

Reading what you said about the total between Raiders and Chiefs brought the tea leaves into sight.

This mother is going under 

Good point about the Phins run game...McDaniels was the run game coordinator of the Niners once. And now has tape on the Bills slicing the Cowboys D. Major point of concern. How is the health of the Phins o line? They were missing 4 guys last game. But vs a lifeless Jets team. 

Looks like the week starts off with what should be a real good Thursday game. We can't say that too often. And we usually don't bet Thursday games. But it's McVay vs Allen. Shit I want to bet the Rams on that alone. 

Red, I'm gonna be a Shrimp fan this weekend. There's no way around it. Books opened it 1.5 to 2 points to high. They know that Niner $ is coming. 

I can't say that the Ravens will cover, but this line is not right.

We just need pro's to be patient. Don't bust a nut early, wait for this sucker to hit 6 or 6.5.

Dolphins on deck.....

Ravens are 19-1  vs NFC last 20....

Great at night....

Vegas begging Ravens money....

Mitchell has been an electric addition 9 weeks ago..8-1....

Melvin Gordon to replace him.....

Not much tread on his tires....

@BIGDTITLE

 well dun sun

Sweat is legit...that commskins DL was elite before the trades

Stat of the year:

The Panthers haven't taken a snap on offense, with a lead in the 4th quarter, all year.

They have 2 wins...

@BIGDTITLE

 Nice work bruv 

After the storms on Sunday I'm still getting sporadic internet 

@sportschat

 You think thats bad ...a Polar bear just ate my satelite dish 

Lamar Jackson as a dog...11-2 ats 

11-3 soon and RR is dead man walking 

 on me BigD  

That 63 by the Raiders was indeed awesome, the nada zero zilch the week before not so much. 

Good

Better

And best is BigD giving his gosh darn all for the betterment of the community.  

One quick comment about the Jags game. TLaw is truly questionable (concuss protocol) and Zay Jones is doubtful (hammy). Jax has held on to the divisional lead for the last 3 weeks despite going 0-3 in that time. The safety net has been removed and they're either going to fly or crash. CJ Beathard can play. I'm not as concerned as most if we have to sit out Zeus for a game. 

Ok, here it is boys. Did all the work myself manually. I'll try to explain it the best I can.

Since 2021, Mike Mccarthy's Cowboys after a loss:

12-1 SU, PS= 33.54 pg, PA= 16.15 pg

On the road only after a loss:

6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS, PS= 31.50, PA= 15.66

They covered the ATS margin by 13.92 points on average. They were dogs only once in all 6 road games after a loss. And that one game was all the way back in 2021 in week 2 vs the Chargers. So ever since then, the books haven't dared to make em dogs otr after a loss.

Of all the 13 times after a loss since 2021, they've only lost once, as the 12-1 SU record shows above. That game was at home vs the Raiders in week 12 of 2021, and it went into overtime. The Raiders made 5 fg's in that game, including a 56 yarder with 1:56 left.

So needless to say, they nearly won that game too.

I have never seen a stronger bounce back factor in any team. Back in the day the Tom Brady Patriots were like this, but not nearly the strength in margin.

These dudes do not like losing b2b games. 

Discuss this game ad nauseum please, because we should.

@Getty3

Trevor Lawrence has never missed a game due to injury in his career. Zeus, as you put it is perfect. 

If he cuts his hair, does he become Sampson?

31 year old UDFA Raheem Mostert has as many TDs this season as the entire Steelers team... and more than the Giants and Jets.