Cows at Dolphins -1.5 (51)
Doesn't get any easier on our run D going from Cook Johnson and sometimes Allen to Mostert and Achane. Buffalo exploited our lack of size at LB and to be honest, Quinn should have adjusted and put Micah back at LB once he saw what they were doing. Last thing we needed was another pass rusher when they weren't passing. Seems simple and yet no adjustments. Dolphins D looking like a completely new unit the last 5 weeks but they will be tested by a pissed off Cows team coming off a very embarrassing offensive effort. Depending on weather this feels like an over game. Something around 30-28. Will wait to see what these lines do. The 51 is already shaded on my book.
The Boys not having Hankins has had a domino effect. Obviously Hankins is their best run defender, but without him the O-Lineman have no issue getting to the 2nd level and pounding the Cowboys undersized LBers. DQ's 3 Safety scheme is cute, but against a power running game they are just too small. I do not believe the Dolphins have the O-line to take advantage of this obvious flaw the way the Bills did.
IMO this game comes down to your favorite QB vs the Throwin Samoan. Whichever QB plays better their team will win.
Status of Tyreek is huge.
BTW, Masi Smith will be out of football by the end of next year. He is slow off the ball, lacks power, and can't shed a block. He is Taco 2.0.
Nice job on the writeups 
More on Dallas @ Miami
Both teams are 10-4.
Dallas expected W/L record is 10.7-3.3, Miami's is 10.1-3.9
Dallas pt differential is +167, Miami's is +147. *Note here that 70-20 win over Denver.
Record vs teams .500 or better:
Dallas 3-3, Miami 0-3
By DVOA:
Overall: Dallas #6, Miami #4 *note here that dvoa puts more weight on offense.
Offense: Dallas #9, Miami #3
Defense: Dallas #6, Miami #13
Special Teams: Dallas #7, Miami #17
SOS: Dallas #29, Miami #31
The last 5 opponents that the Boys and Phins interest me the most. As we all know, the Dolphins defensive epa #'s are off the charts since their bye week. But look at the qb's they've faced...
Aiden O'Connell, Tim Boyle, Sam Howell(not aging well, he was benched last week), Will Levis(threw only 1 td in a win), and Zack Wilson(got hurt), and Trevor Siemian.
Is it safe to say that facing Dak with CD Lamb/Brandon Cooks will present a harder challenge?
The Cowboys in their last 5 games have faced:
Bryce Young, Sam Howell, Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen. Looks like it's gotten harder each game since week 11.
Tua is not a bad QB himself. Just off of simple qbr, Tua is #2 at 106, Dak is #3 at 104.
First look weather:
Saturday 4:30 Bengals @ Steelers 45F, 20% chance of rain showers, winds 5 mph
Sunday at 1:
Seahawks @ Titans 61F, 30% chance of showers, winds 9 mph
Redskins @ Jets 46F, 3% chance of rain, winds 7 mph
Packers @ Panthers, 57F, 4% chance of rain showers, winds 7 mph
@ 4:05:
Jags @ Bucs 71F, 10% chance of rain showers, winds 12 mph
Cards @ Bears 49F, 63% chance of rain (likely), winds 13 mph
Cowboys @ Dolphins 73F, 11% chance of rain, winds 13 mph
@ 8:15
Patriots @ Broncos 36F, 34% chance of snow, 10 mph
Christmas Day:
1 PM Raiders @ Chiefs 54F, 42% chance of rain, winds 12 mph
4:30 PM Giants @ Eagles 48F, 10% chance of rain, winds 6 mph
8:15 PM Ravens @ 49ers 54F, slight chance of drizzle, winds 7 mph
The books certainly know that Seattle was is gonna get strong backing and yet they opened it under 3 may be telling. As BD pointed out what is their plan going forward going to be? We know Will Levis is going to give it his all because he still has to prove himself but will the rest of the team give a hoot, will they give Henry the ball 16 times? This game may require a clothes pin a pint of whiskey and a wager. 
If i'm Harbaugh i put the carrot in front the donkey and tell the team if we win this game and take care of business against Miami the last game against Steelers will be meaningless and some starters that are banged up a little or could use a rest will sit out and have the following bye week off.He's gonna have to have them motivated to be 3000 miles away from family on Xmas day for a game that is more sexy than important.
[Quote: Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1]If i'm Harbaugh i put the carrot in front the donkey and tell the team if we win this game and take care of business against Miami the last game against Steelers will be meaningless and some starters that are banged up a little or could use a rest will sit out and have the following bye week off.He's gonna have to have them motivated to be 3000 miles away from family on Xmas day for a game that is more sexy than important.[/Quote
[Quote: Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1]If i'm Harbaugh i put the carrot in front the donkey and tell the team if we win this game and take care of business against Miami the last game against Steelers will be meaningless and some starters that are banged up a little or could use a rest will sit out and have the following bye week off.He's gonna have to have them motivated to be 3000 miles away from family on Xmas day for a game that is more sexy than important.[/Quote
This is great info on the Jags offense so far :
The Jags have completed more passes on receiver screens than any team in the league but are dead last in success rate on those plays.
The Jags EPA on running plays is #30 in the league despite the fact that Etienne is still #1 on forced missed tackles on runs/receptions.
When the Jags run between the tackles they are #32 in EPA, when running outside the tackles they barely exceed league average to the left but still remain slightly below to the right.
Conclusions?
First and foremost the offensive line sucks especially the interior.
Secondly OC Press Taylor has a limited acumen of what to call. When in doubt, just throw a bubble screen to Engram/Ridley/Kirk etc. even though the defense isn't fooled. Ravens head coach Harbaugh was asked about stopping the Jags on the last play of the 1st half last week. "Our defense was ready for it. We see that all the time." The play by the way was a receiver screen which was completed in bounds for no gain before time ran out. Apparently everyone has enough film on the Jags offense to know the bubble screen is their ill advised go to.
This is a team on the edge of a cliff and if they don't mix things up they're screwed. I'm not confident this late in the season...
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