CD Newsletter week 17

It's that time of the year where some teams have packed their bags, and some are fighting for their playoff lives, and very few are playing for a better seed. My memory reminds me that those teams that "have to win" usually don't. Dogs will have value.

JAX @ NE -15/41.5

Of all the teams who dwell in the NFL cellar, the Getty's are undoubtedly the worst. Trevor is lost, he's had the worst guidance you could ask for. Mac on the other hand was put in the best possible coaching situation you'd want. Although in his last 2 games he is reminding us that he is in fact not God, but a rookie in the nfl.

Jax might be the only dog I don't like this week. If you guys remember the trend I used to back the Patriots in the past, off of b2b losses, it's ripe again for this week. 

This look ahead was Pats -16, that is a strong lay.

PHI -3.5/46.5 @ WFT

Good lord the books are offering a layup here with Philly. Who in their right mind will back the WFT? If they can get some key run stoppers back on defense, this could actually be a game. I'm not sold on Hurts. If in the unlikely event of Minshew being named starter, I'd be on the Eagles hard, no joke. Fishiest line of the week imo.

CAR @ NO -6.5/40

Draft Kings is the only book I see offering a line, as the Saints play tonight. And who the hell knows who will play QB. Matt Rhule is starting to look like a dunce as opposed to the genius he was last year. Bringing in Sam Darnold was a huge mistake, bringing Cam Newton back was like trying to cover a cut with chewing gum. I have no opinion here.

MIA @ TENN -3/41

The Titans are 4-3 without Derek Henry. They have been out performing their metrics which is a sign of good coaching. The line is headed to 3.5, the juice on that 3 is -125 currently. A part of me wants to take it now as Miami could get banged up tonight vs the Saints. I have to be honest, the Phish I have not paid attention to this year. What I do see is 6 straight wins, and this 6 week stretch of sos is simply laughable with 5 home games and a week 14 bye. Hou, Balt, @Nyj, Car, Nyg, Nyj.

I just got an idea, I should probably play the Saints tonight against Miami. Think I will.

FWIW Raven / Rams flexed up to 1:00 start time 

Blake Bortles gonna relieve Ian Book and throw the winning TD to Lil' Jordan Humphrey. Will forever be hailed as Bourbon Street Bortles 

TB -13/45.5 @ NYJ

Looks like another over inflated spread, but for a warm weather team this time of year in Jersey? Tampa should win but I'm not laying that otr. Tampa clinched their division and has Carolina on deck. Could there be an easier stretch to 13-4 and a playoff bye? The planets seem to align for Brady every fucking year. If the public takes this to 14.5 I may be inclined to bet 1 unit on the Jets.

LV @ IND -7.5/45.5

That hook is a mother. The Raiders actually have a chance to make the playoffs. They've been an up n down team, lost their coach, and Carr is a high variance qb. The Colts had half of their team out to covid last week, and lost some linemen to in game injuries vs AZ. Frank Reich is pulling the right strings going 6-1 over their last 7. 2 of their 6 losses have been in OT. This is a gritty team who knows how to run the ball. They have lost to the Titans twice, so they'll be pushing to win out and hope for the best.

Tough cap, I hate that hook if I were to back Indy, not ecstatic about it if I were to back the Raiders. Both domed teams on turf will be in their comfort zones.

KC -4.5/49.5 @ CIN

The look ahead was -5, so we have some early home dog backers and I don't blame them. The Bengals have to win just 1 of their last 2 games to clinch the afc north. But this will be a tough test as the Chiefs are in the zone, especially defensively. Winners of 8 in a row where they've been allowing 12.87 ppg. Joe Burrow is the only real qb in the afc north, it should be a shoot out as the total suggests. Gun to head Bengals with the points. But I will sit out and cross my fingers on my +200 division ticket.

https://imgur.com/a/QW5w14F

 

Is Bortels really rostered?

Also, shut up I'm not done yet

Newsletter rules are we dont interrupt before its complete 

 

 

Fight club rule 1 

That's gold 

@trainwreck66

 Unless the editor takes all fucking day to get to page 2. 

@Getty3

 

NYG @ CHI -6/38

It's the Mike Glennon/Nick Foles Bowl 

I mentioned last week that I'd be on the easiest/squarest over of the year, and I still may. Weather permitting. 2 teams out of anything this late in the year creates an atmosphere where guys want to get out of the game healthy. I see no incentive for hard tackling. This should be the lowest viewed game of the week and I may need to have a wager to keep me interested. I wait for Cyrax's opinion. 

ATL @ BUF -14/45

Big let down spot for the Beef after their revenge game vs the Pats. One thing that makes me hesitant on the Falcons is the massive dvoa discrepancy, as these big discrepancies have worked out for me this year backing the favs. Buffalo #3, and Atlanta #32, somehow rated worse than the Getty's. Yet I lean Atlanta as this has backdoor written all over it. Perhaps we have an opportunity in the 1H to back Atlanta as the Bills could still be celebrating their greatness in beating the Pats? 

HOU @ SF -15/45

Another huge spread, and the oddsmakers don't give 2 shits that the Texicans beat the Chargers. I don't have much thoughts on this one. Jimmy G was 26 of 35 last week for 322, but 2 costly pics did them in. Good bounce back spot but laying DD's is tough.

I'm doing this from my phone ass curry.

I allow you to respond to my Bortles question 

Ass curry

Buffalo,NY next Sunday. Low 18 High 33 w/snow showers. The Falcons are burnt before they even get into the toaster. 

Also I like your idea of playing Tennessee now. If Miami loses tonite, that line re-opens at 4.5 or more. As you said the Dolphins have played a schedule of Vanderbilts, Dukes, and Northwesterns during their entire winning streak. And lest we forget they lost to Jacksonville. 

Reports say covid running rampant amongst the Panthers today. 

@undermysac

 

"Bills could still be celebrating their greatness in beating the Pats? "

 

Not the time of year for letdowns.  They just saved their season beating the Pats and they will curb stomp the Falcons this week. 

 

 

DEN @ LAC -6/45.5

2 teams who fell flat on their face last week. Earlier in the year this conference was a boat race, now KC has left everyone in their wake. Surely Justin Herbert is the better qb here. He went 27 of 36 for 366 vs the Texicans but 2 pics where one went 48 to the house was crippling. 

Wtf happened to the Bolts defense? Rex Burkhead ran for 149 and Mills was nearly perfect.

Denver always losses games that they should win. They have serious talent on their roster but qb play always seems to hold them back. 

Both "have to win", both played like shit last week. Maybe both were looking ahead to this week? I don't know, I really don't want a part of this game. Gun to head I'd take the dog.

DET @ SEA -7.5/42.5

I think I'll be on Detroit and I will have to bet it soon I believe. Once again 2 teams with nothing to play for and the over has my interest as well. I will allow my friends here in the box to convince me otherwise. 

LAR -3/47 @ BAL

Matt Stafford looked terrible vs Minny. He won a game he should of lost giving up 3 turnovers otr. Luckily for him he was facing Mike Zimmerman. The Rams D kept em in the game pressuring Cousins all game and stopping the run. 

We know that the Ravens are decimated by injury. Stafford should have an easier time vs this JV secondary. But look at the line(you too Red), this # is telling me that Lamar Jackson is playing. Convince me otherwise. 

My plan, let the news come that Lamar is in, then let the public bet on him, cause the Ravens are on life support and "have to win". We get value on the Rams in this situation. 

Plan B: Tyler Huntley is named starter, public whacks the Rams, we get a discount on the Ravens with a better qb. Not to sound cocky, but I think that is pretty simple. And it will work.

AZ @ DAL -5.5/49.5

AZ is sputtering. It's clear to me at this point in the season that their o line is subpar, and they will face one of the best D lines in the league(if not the best). This total is set too high for my liking, I ask our resident total experts in Getty and Cyrax for opinions. Look ahead was -5, early $ on Dallas and I don't have an argument against it.

I will do the 2 night games on a separate post to further piss off Getty. 

SNF:

MIN @ GB -7/48.5

This has to be the Vikings or no play at all. The jury is out on the Packers D. Hugh warned us early in the year. The Packers continue to pull games out of their asses week after week. Although I know that Rodgers is good enough to carry his team for a W, I'm not so confident in him covering a big spread. 

One note on this game, the refs were a big part of GB beating the Browns. If that happens again we have to live with it.

MNF:

CLE -3/41 @ PIT

If you like good quarterback play, do your self a favor and do not watch this game. Both coaches should call 75% run plays, but they won't. I see a high variance game of shit passes and flukey plays. By the end of the week I will want no part of this game. But the mains will have 79 different threads on what is the right side and ALL of them will be wrong, because no one should have $ on this game.

That does it, good luck 

@undermysac

 Tremendous effort!

@undermysac

  Outstanding!

I am making a commitment to not break the balls of bigred for the balance of this year.

Will it be difficult? Yes.

Am I up to the challenge? Affirmative

I'm not placing a bet on this game. As a Chargers fan, I don't need that extra stress. But I'll tell you this, Telesco (the Chargers GM) is good at loading the roster with stud players, and finding UDFA gems, but is weak at putting together the rest of the roster. The team has no depth. The Chargers lost to the Texans because of the following:

1. No Bosa (has the most sacks on the team, and most pressures)
2. No Derwin James Jr. & Mike Davis (made a thin secondary unit even thinner, but not having your best safety and best CB is tough)
3. No Justin Jones (along with Linval Joseph, arguably our best run stopper; it forced the team to play Jerry Tillery -- not the best of ideas if we can help it)
4. No Austin Ekeler (our run game played decent without him, but he's an integral piece to our passing game; we were missing the outlet passes)
5. No Mike Williams & Jaylen Guyton (our best deep threat and our #3 receiver, who happens to be the fastest on the team)

Back to the depth issue... we just don't have the players behind these guys to step up and take their place without missing a couple of beats. I'll still put some of the blame on coaching, as they didn't prepare well enough to mask those deficiencies. All I know is that we are now 1-5 in revenge games this year (a.k.a. teams with players who were on our team, but are no longer -- Melvin Gordon/Broncos, Melvin Ingram/Chiefs, Adrian Phillips + Hunter Henry/Patriots, & Tyrod Taylor + Desmond King/Texans = all losses). Maybe they have really good intel on our players.

All of these players, with the exception of Derwin (who could have played on an "emergency basis"), were out due to Covid. There's a great chance they play the Broncos at full strength. The Chargers are slowly starting to get a home field crowd (I'm a STH and can attest to this), which means playing at home and not traveling will actually work in their favor.

I'm not taking a side, but just some things to consider. Remember, the Chargers are a team that could have easily beat the Chiefs (a 2nd time), when they were almost at full strength. All they had to do was kick a FG instead of one of those downs where they went for it on 4th. 

BOL if you play this, but my guess is you won't.  For anyone else, just some things to keep in your mind if you had to play this game.

@iConsciousness

 

Good to see you still around 

@iConsciousness

That's solid right there 

@iConsciousness

Can you do next weeks Newsletter?

Sac does a nice job but I celebrated 2 birthdays from his first games breakdown to his last

 

 

You must be high as fuck right now