CD Newsletter Week 17

I got the worst of every line I bet on Tuesday. 

The Bucs and Cowboys lines are calling me as well. All chalk

@undermysac

 does PFF or DVOA rank the complete OL in the run-game as a unit??

or just the individual players and their respective run-grades?

wondering what rams/9ers  ranks are

TNF

NYJ +7.5

GL, fella's

@Hugh_Jorgan

 GL Tonight 

Yes, if you pay for their memberships for more detail. I haven't this year

@dubz4dummyz

 In years past with dvoa, all you had to do was create an account and sign in with football Outsiders, and you got real good stuff. This year the creater of dvoa left football Outsiders, that site didn't last too much longer. Now he's with som ftn fantasy site where his dvoa stuff is at. The price of admission is bogus

Do the stanky leg, and good luck 

@Hugh_Jorgan

 BOL 

@Hugh_Jorgan

 BOL 

The Saints haven't played an outdoor game since week 5. In an odd scheduling quirk, their 5 road games in that time have all been at enclosed venues. Sac brought it up first, but we really have to consider Todd Bowles the better coach than Dennis Allen. Not that eclipsing Allen's competence is a very high bar but it's true. Lattimore is a huge loss at CB and opens the door for another Mayfield day. 

@Getty3

 Yes I just heard that thing about the Saints not playing outdoors since week 5. I love that, it's a thing not many people think is a big deal, which makes it even more appetizing. 

There was a team last year(forget who) who played a bunch of consecutive indoor games, went otr outdoors and got smacked.

Love it 

https://sports.yahoo.com/is-dak-prescott-or-mike-mccarthy-driving-cowboys-offensive-success-the-answer-might-determine-their-playoff-fate-003902645.html

Kind of digging the Cowboys state of mind, even after losing to Miami. 

With all of Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua on the field this season, the Rams are averaging 6.8 yards per offensive play.

The 49ers lead the NFL with 6.8 yards per play on the season.

Stafford is averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt with 15 touchdowns and just one interception on 191 dropbacks with all three of those players on the field this season.

@undermysac

 Stafford has been sipping from the Fountain of Youth. The neck/back injuries of the past few years were worse than he led us to believe. And what a great job by McVay and GM Les Snead identifying Puka as a 3rd day steal. Everything I read about him says it's not a fluke. He's the real deal.

Ya I don't blame ya

 Paying for all that shit fucks with your ROI in my opinion. Some would disagree but to each their own

@undermysac

 Debating Kyren and cmc rush prop....both should push 100+ if their teams have leads.....waiting on trent Williams status for the cmc bet. May lock in and hedge out if he announced out

@undermysac

 
We are seeing the defensive effort from the jets you thought we’d see from your bears 

@Getty3

The Giants have 11 players on IR, and 8 are questionable. 6 are now probable, but dealing with shit.

The Rams will be on 10 days rest.

Common opponents point differential margin:

Rams -1.37(8 of 10 games in Nov or earlier)

Giants -10.81

The Giants are 5-10. They're expected w/l record is 3.2-11.8

The Rams real record is nearly dead on with expected wins.

The Giants average 5.3 ppg in the 1H, they allow 13.3 ppg in the 1H.

Looking at epa and success rate stats(1H) on the year, since week 11(Rams bye) and since week 14(Giants bye) between these 2 teams has me buggin' out.

I'll be betting big on Rams 1H, on top of the full game bet at a bad #.

Just look at Robert Saleh. I wouldn't want to put my body on the line for that guy.

The Browns could definitely take the foot off the gas at any moment here. In fact, they most definitely will.

This backdoor is still swingin' for our buddy Hugh.

@undermysac

I might join you on the Rams 1H

The Jest had gone 33 straight games, without allowing a 300-yard passer, Flacco ended that streak by finishing with 309. Flacco went over 300 yards for the 4th straight game - a franchise record for the Browns.

Browns are the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs having started 4 QBs.

The quote of the game though: "Pounding on that trash can, you would think the Astros are in town" - Al Michaels no chill whatsoever

Zay Flowers DNP yesterday, calf. Lets see what goes today, if he were to be out sunday make no mistake that would be big loss.