This will be a short expedited edition. I'm having a tough time with every game/line. There's a lot of information yet to be determined, like who's playing, who's not, motivation etc. I'm not certain on all the exact playoff scenarios, so I'm sure you guys can plug that info in throughout the week.
Saturday:
Chiefs -7.5 @ Raiders 52
The Raiders with Jarrett Stidham last week had their best offensive game of the year, and vs the best defense in the nfl in the 49ers. Can they do it again? Were the Niners over looking this bunch with a backup qb? I would like to think so.
The Chiefs are notoriously known for winning games but not covering big spreads. Their D is 23rd by dvoa compared to the Niners #1. Hard not seeing a dead nut over here in the dome. But my gut says that the Vegas offense won't have another boat race against a blitzing coordinator like Steve Spagnuolo.
Are the Chiefs now locked into the one seed since the Bills game wasn't concluded? Are the Bills making up their W17 game? Doesn't feel like it.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This will be a short expedited edition. I'm having a tough time with every game/line. There's a lot of information yet to be determined, like who's playing, who's not, motivation etc. I'm not certain on all the exact playoff scenarios, so I'm sure you guys can plug that info in throughout the week.
Saturday:
Chiefs -7.5 @ Raiders 52
The Raiders with Jarrett Stidham last week had their best offensive game of the year, and vs the best defense in the nfl in the 49ers. Can they do it again? Were the Niners over looking this bunch with a backup qb? I would like to think so.
The Chiefs are notoriously known for winning games but not covering big spreads. Their D is 23rd by dvoa compared to the Niners #1. Hard not seeing a dead nut over here in the dome. But my gut says that the Vegas offense won't have another boat race against a blitzing coordinator like Steve Spagnuolo.
Are the Chiefs now locked into the one seed since the Bills game wasn't concluded? Are the Bills making up their W17 game? Doesn't feel like it.
I can't help but to lean the Jaguars here, and in a very "square like" view. And I'm not even hesitant on my opinion.
Watching the Titans last 6 weeks is like watching an old dog die, one that knows his time is up but somehow keeps chugging along. Their IR and injury list is incredibly long, recently losing a starting safety.
One might say that they have extra rest, and that Derek Henry sat last game. In all honesty, we have to admit that Henry has lost tread on his tires this year. The amount of carries and yards he's put on his legs is reaching the limit. Every RB has a shelf life, including freak specimens as himself.
The total of 39.5 at first glance could entice the "dog and the under" type of bettors, but I must say this spread and total is suggesting a Jaguars blow out.
You'd have to put on your best Johnny Cochraine impression to sway me onto the Titans side, but I'd love to hear it.
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Saturday:
Titans +6.5 @ Getty's 39.5
I can't help but to lean the Jaguars here, and in a very "square like" view. And I'm not even hesitant on my opinion.
Watching the Titans last 6 weeks is like watching an old dog die, one that knows his time is up but somehow keeps chugging along. Their IR and injury list is incredibly long, recently losing a starting safety.
One might say that they have extra rest, and that Derek Henry sat last game. In all honesty, we have to admit that Henry has lost tread on his tires this year. The amount of carries and yards he's put on his legs is reaching the limit. Every RB has a shelf life, including freak specimens as himself.
The total of 39.5 at first glance could entice the "dog and the under" type of bettors, but I must say this spread and total is suggesting a Jaguars blow out.
You'd have to put on your best Johnny Cochraine impression to sway me onto the Titans side, but I'd love to hear it.
No lines up. Assuming it's because of the unfinished game.
So the Bengals are 11-4, with a possible make up game or the league issues them a draw. If so, 11-4-1 vs a Ravens team who is 10-6. So even if the Ravens win this game, the Bengals still win the division? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'll go ahead and congratulate BWS on his division bet anyway.
Who knows if Lamar plays or not. The Ravens need to fix that passing offense asap. It's not surprising though that they are at 10-6 on basically defense and special teams alone.
Before the tragic collapse of Damar Hamlin last night, Joe Burrow looked sharp as could be. That dude is a stone cold killer of a nfl qb. 19-3 ats in his last 22 starts, and that's not a coincidence. The Bengals easily have the best trio of wr's in the league.
We'll talk about this game some more when we get more news.
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Ravens @ Bengals
No lines up. Assuming it's because of the unfinished game.
So the Bengals are 11-4, with a possible make up game or the league issues them a draw. If so, 11-4-1 vs a Ravens team who is 10-6. So even if the Ravens win this game, the Bengals still win the division? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'll go ahead and congratulate BWS on his division bet anyway.
Who knows if Lamar plays or not. The Ravens need to fix that passing offense asap. It's not surprising though that they are at 10-6 on basically defense and special teams alone.
Before the tragic collapse of Damar Hamlin last night, Joe Burrow looked sharp as could be. That dude is a stone cold killer of a nfl qb. 19-3 ats in his last 22 starts, and that's not a coincidence. The Bengals easily have the best trio of wr's in the league.
We'll talk about this game some more when we get more news.
That line isn't a typo. Clearly the Bucs will treat this as a bye week and rest players, especially Tom Brady.
I have no opinion on this game but only one premonition. And that is the Bucs will only hurt themselves for the 1st round of the playoffs by sitting instead of working on the so many deficiencies that they have on offense.
A small part of my brain says to bet on the Bucs +4.5 along with their backups. Those dudes could be itching to play, and the Falcons don't really know what to expect.
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Buccaneers +4.5 @ Falcons 40.5
That line isn't a typo. Clearly the Bucs will treat this as a bye week and rest players, especially Tom Brady.
I have no opinion on this game but only one premonition. And that is the Bucs will only hurt themselves for the 1st round of the playoffs by sitting instead of working on the so many deficiencies that they have on offense.
A small part of my brain says to bet on the Bucs +4.5 along with their backups. Those dudes could be itching to play, and the Falcons don't really know what to expect.
Sharps are on DeSean Watson again and are 3-2 ats betting on him. Only 22% of the tickets are on the Browns, but 33% of the money. According to one site(who knows how accurate) but the line is moving in the Browns favor.
So the Steelers have a long shot at the playoffs, they have to win. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as a HC, and this is his rubber game sitting at 8-8.
The Ravens controlled the lead vs Pitt for most of the game until 56 seconds left in the game when Kenny Pickett pulled off an elite type qb drive to win the game. They have momentum on their side here. They are 6-2 since their bye week, with a 7 pt loss to the Bengals and a 2 pt loss to the Ravens.
Last time these teams played Cleveland won 29-17 vs Trubisky.
The Browns have gone W,L,W,L,W in their last 5. Do they have the motivation to play spoiler here? If they do, it should be a classic afc north trench warfare game. The total is too sharp for me to go under.
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Browns +3(-120)/+2.5(even) @ Steelers 40.5
Sharps are on DeSean Watson again and are 3-2 ats betting on him. Only 22% of the tickets are on the Browns, but 33% of the money. According to one site(who knows how accurate) but the line is moving in the Browns favor.
So the Steelers have a long shot at the playoffs, they have to win. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as a HC, and this is his rubber game sitting at 8-8.
The Ravens controlled the lead vs Pitt for most of the game until 56 seconds left in the game when Kenny Pickett pulled off an elite type qb drive to win the game. They have momentum on their side here. They are 6-2 since their bye week, with a 7 pt loss to the Bengals and a 2 pt loss to the Ravens.
Last time these teams played Cleveland won 29-17 vs Trubisky.
The Browns have gone W,L,W,L,W in their last 5. Do they have the motivation to play spoiler here? If they do, it should be a classic afc north trench warfare game. The total is too sharp for me to go under.
The Saints beat the Eagles out right as 5.5 to 7 pt dogs depending when you got the line. We identified that Saints bet last week, it was the perfect spot to fade Philly. Thanks to Hugh for the Lane Johnson stat.
Let's update that to: The Eagles are 3-11 su when LJ is out of the lineup.
Also, the Panthers lost and did not cover vs the Bucs last week. If you watched that game, they were in it for quite some time. Being without Jaycee Horn eventually did hurt them as I thought it could. The Bucs wr's got past that secondary one too many times. Getting burned by Mike Evans on a 9 rt is kind of embarrassing, and something that Evans can't do anymore in his age. But alas, it happened.
This is a meaningless game for both teams. Last game of the year and let's try to get out of it healthy type games. If there's any motivation anywhere it should be from Sam Darnold, he's proving recently that yes, I can be a starter in the nfl.
Andy Dalton can't wait to get back into a backup roll next year and earn a check.
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Panthers +3.5(-115) @ Saints 41.5
Ok, here's a nice buy low/sell high line.
The Saints beat the Eagles out right as 5.5 to 7 pt dogs depending when you got the line. We identified that Saints bet last week, it was the perfect spot to fade Philly. Thanks to Hugh for the Lane Johnson stat.
Let's update that to: The Eagles are 3-11 su when LJ is out of the lineup.
Also, the Panthers lost and did not cover vs the Bucs last week. If you watched that game, they were in it for quite some time. Being without Jaycee Horn eventually did hurt them as I thought it could. The Bucs wr's got past that secondary one too many times. Getting burned by Mike Evans on a 9 rt is kind of embarrassing, and something that Evans can't do anymore in his age. But alas, it happened.
This is a meaningless game for both teams. Last game of the year and let's try to get out of it healthy type games. If there's any motivation anywhere it should be from Sam Darnold, he's proving recently that yes, I can be a starter in the nfl.
Andy Dalton can't wait to get back into a backup roll next year and earn a check.
Jags playing on short rest (6 days) vs TEN playing extra rest (10 days). since 2000 w/one tm having -4 day rest disadv or worse occurring week 15 on. Those tms are 3-7-1 ATS. If one tm has a short week like Jax they are 1-5 ATS
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Jags playing on short rest (6 days) vs TEN playing extra rest (10 days). since 2000 w/one tm having -4 day rest disadv or worse occurring week 15 on. Those tms are 3-7-1 ATS. If one tm has a short week like Jax they are 1-5 ATS
Jags got somewhat screwed with the Saturday night game given that Tenn is on extended rest as well. Veteran playoff team versus first timers in playoffs. Should be a close game but jags prevail by 3
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Jags got somewhat screwed with the Saturday night game given that Tenn is on extended rest as well. Veteran playoff team versus first timers in playoffs. Should be a close game but jags prevail by 3
Is there a chance for Miami to make the playoffs with a win?
The line certainly says that Tua won't play, and Teddy broke his finger last week but might play.
The great Mike White hype disappointed sharps last week as a short road dog. He looked terrible in Seattle vs a terrible defense. Maybe he wasn't ever that good to begin with. That win vs the Bears was fugazi imo, if you remember that was a huge fade of my Bears that week. Vs a terribly depleted secondary.
The Jets are 1-6 since their bye week. What was so sharp about betting on them last week? I leaned the Seahawks hard but passed after the line movement and tout pics all on the Jets.
This is a tough game to peg a # on, especially with Miami's qb situation. If you put a gun to my head though, I'd side with the home team in a divisional game at a pk.
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Jets pk(-105) @ Miami 38
Is there a chance for Miami to make the playoffs with a win?
The line certainly says that Tua won't play, and Teddy broke his finger last week but might play.
The great Mike White hype disappointed sharps last week as a short road dog. He looked terrible in Seattle vs a terrible defense. Maybe he wasn't ever that good to begin with. That win vs the Bears was fugazi imo, if you remember that was a huge fade of my Bears that week. Vs a terribly depleted secondary.
The Jets are 1-6 since their bye week. What was so sharp about betting on them last week? I leaned the Seahawks hard but passed after the line movement and tout pics all on the Jets.
This is a tough game to peg a # on, especially with Miami's qb situation. If you put a gun to my head though, I'd side with the home team in a divisional game at a pk.
Well the Colts had the most unforseen season of any this year. They were odds on favorites to win the afc south to start the year.
Now they sit as short home favs vs the worst team in football.
Their game vs the Giants definitely showed signs of "I don't want to be here" last week.
The Texans have played incredibly well for 3 weeks until they realized that the #1 draft pick could slip away from them if they won a game. They had a terrible showing vs the Jaguars.
"Sharps" were on the Texans.
I don't know what to do here. I definitely won't be watching, and I suspect no one else will.
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Texans +2.5(-105)/+3(-115) @ Colts 38
Well the Colts had the most unforseen season of any this year. They were odds on favorites to win the afc south to start the year.
Now they sit as short home favs vs the worst team in football.
Their game vs the Giants definitely showed signs of "I don't want to be here" last week.
The Texans have played incredibly well for 3 weeks until they realized that the #1 draft pick could slip away from them if they won a game. They had a terrible showing vs the Jaguars.
"Sharps" were on the Texans.
I don't know what to do here. I definitely won't be watching, and I suspect no one else will.
We talked a little about this game in last week's thread. The Bears have draft position to gain in losing, and the Vikings have seeding to gain in winning.
The line is inflated by a point or 1.5 pts or so because of this, but I don't know if it's enough for me to bet the home dog here.
The Bears depth is terrible. The Vikings play is terrible.
Being out doors and weather reports from Hank pending, I could see a slight advantage for the Bears if they get their ground game going. Justin Fields needs 64 yards to break Lamar's qb rushing record.
I'll watch, just to watch I guess. Can't lean on a side or total at the moment.
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Vikings -4 @ Bears 46
We talked a little about this game in last week's thread. The Bears have draft position to gain in losing, and the Vikings have seeding to gain in winning.
The line is inflated by a point or 1.5 pts or so because of this, but I don't know if it's enough for me to bet the home dog here.
The Bears depth is terrible. The Vikings play is terrible.
Being out doors and weather reports from Hank pending, I could see a slight advantage for the Bears if they get their ground game going. Justin Fields needs 64 yards to break Lamar's qb rushing record.
I'll watch, just to watch I guess. Can't lean on a side or total at the moment.
I bet the Pats on this same line a few days ago. Now I'm feeling like I might be drawing dead as the Bills could have the most motivated game of the year for their team mate. Or they will still be distressed if his situation doesn't get better in the near future. Just a terrible situation for him and the Bills, I don't ever want to see anything like that again.
I remember why I bet this in the first place, something like I felt that it was too many points to give Bill in a division game, and the Bills on a short week, and were going to be off a high leverage game in Cincinnati.
Well that dynamic has changed, as they didn't even play an entire quarter. But, they are facing a much more emotional challenge at the moment.
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Patriots +7.5 @ Bills 42.5
I bet the Pats on this same line a few days ago. Now I'm feeling like I might be drawing dead as the Bills could have the most motivated game of the year for their team mate. Or they will still be distressed if his situation doesn't get better in the near future. Just a terrible situation for him and the Bills, I don't ever want to see anything like that again.
I remember why I bet this in the first place, something like I felt that it was too many points to give Bill in a division game, and the Bills on a short week, and were going to be off a high leverage game in Cincinnati.
Well that dynamic has changed, as they didn't even play an entire quarter. But, they are facing a much more emotional challenge at the moment.
Do the Cowboys need the win for seeding, or can they lay off?
Wentz is a dumpster fire.
Reports out of Washington say that Ron Rivera didn't know that they were still alive for the playoffs last week. And he found out on the podium after the loss.
I don't know if I believe that or not, but there is something toxic going on with this team, and it probably starts with Daniel Snyder.
If there is a way to handicap this game, lmk.
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Cowboys -5 @ Commanders 41
A peculiarly tough handicap here imo.
Do the Cowboys need the win for seeding, or can they lay off?
Wentz is a dumpster fire.
Reports out of Washington say that Ron Rivera didn't know that they were still alive for the playoffs last week. And he found out on the podium after the loss.
I don't know if I believe that or not, but there is something toxic going on with this team, and it probably starts with Daniel Snyder.
The Broncos 2 weeks ago layed down faster than a w-hore at a penis convention. They lost vs the Rams on purpose and got Hacket fired. The following week they gave the Chiefs the ultimate ride, and at Arrowhead. Losing by 3 points.
I wish that we would of saw that coming, we should have honestly. Those players wanted to show people that they weren't the problem, but Hacket was.
Now do they have it in them to try again, at home for the fans? They really don't have anything else to play for. I believe that the Chargers are locked into their seed(not sure), so they might not have anything to prove here. Nor would they want to get into a rumble with that defense in altitude.
The Broncos will be a wise guy spot here imo. The public will be on the Chargers.
Who in their right mind would want to ride with Russell Wilson? Fuckin ay I think I do. It feels right.
Let's go over the details and anything else before placing a wager.
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Chargers -3(-120)/-3.5(-105) @ Broncos 39.5
The Broncos 2 weeks ago layed down faster than a w-hore at a penis convention. They lost vs the Rams on purpose and got Hacket fired. The following week they gave the Chiefs the ultimate ride, and at Arrowhead. Losing by 3 points.
I wish that we would of saw that coming, we should have honestly. Those players wanted to show people that they weren't the problem, but Hacket was.
Now do they have it in them to try again, at home for the fans? They really don't have anything else to play for. I believe that the Chargers are locked into their seed(not sure), so they might not have anything to prove here. Nor would they want to get into a rumble with that defense in altitude.
The Broncos will be a wise guy spot here imo. The public will be on the Chargers.
Who in their right mind would want to ride with Russell Wilson? Fuckin ay I think I do. It feels right.
Let's go over the details and anything else before placing a wager.
For Chargers game, they’ve clearly stated they want the 5th seed. If they lose, they could drop to 6th seed would would face AFC SOUTH winner. Would they rather play AFC SOUTH OR NORTH winner? Sounds like a rematch against jville.
For Chargers game, they’ve clearly stated they want the 5th seed. If they lose, they could drop to 6th seed would would face AFC SOUTH winner. Would they rather play AFC SOUTH OR NORTH winner? Sounds like a rematch against jville.
I have 2 impossible futures tickets on the Seahawks that I've been looking to hedge on in some fashion. And I'm trying to figure out if this is the game to do it.
If Seattle wins, they need the Lions to beat the Packers to get into the playoffs. Which feels kind of unfair, as when the Lions see the Seahawks win, then they don't have a chance(Det/GB is at night).
My hedge would have to be Rams ats, as I don't trust them to win outright in Seattle. But currently I have no idea if there is any value in that # as I haven't looked at the game. But I suspect there should be since the Rams got hammered by the Chargers, and Seahawks beat the Jets.
Any help on handicapping this game would be appreciated.
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Rams +6.5 @ Seattle 41.5
This is a tough # to bet.
I have 2 impossible futures tickets on the Seahawks that I've been looking to hedge on in some fashion. And I'm trying to figure out if this is the game to do it.
If Seattle wins, they need the Lions to beat the Packers to get into the playoffs. Which feels kind of unfair, as when the Lions see the Seahawks win, then they don't have a chance(Det/GB is at night).
My hedge would have to be Rams ats, as I don't trust them to win outright in Seattle. But currently I have no idea if there is any value in that # as I haven't looked at the game. But I suspect there should be since the Rams got hammered by the Chargers, and Seahawks beat the Jets.
Any help on handicapping this game would be appreciated.
Chargers -3(-120)/-3.5(-105) @ Broncos 39.5 The Broncos 2 weeks ago layed down faster than a w-hore at a penis convention. They lost vs the Rams on purpose and got Hacket fired. The following week they gave the Chiefs the ultimate ride, and at Arrowhead. Losing by 3 points. I wish that we would of saw that coming, we should have honestly. Those players wanted to show people that they weren't the problem, but Hacket was. Now do they have it in them to try again, at home for the fans? They really don't have anything else to play for. I believe that the Chargers are locked into their seed(not sure), so they might not have anything to prove here. Nor would they want to get into a rumble with that defense in altitude. The Broncos will be a wise guy spot here imo. The public will be on the Chargers. Who in their right mind would want to ride with Russell Wilson? Fuckin ay I think I do. It feels right. Let's go over the details and anything else before placing a wager.
"There are penis conventions?" -trainwrecks next post
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Chargers -3(-120)/-3.5(-105) @ Broncos 39.5 The Broncos 2 weeks ago layed down faster than a w-hore at a penis convention. They lost vs the Rams on purpose and got Hacket fired. The following week they gave the Chiefs the ultimate ride, and at Arrowhead. Losing by 3 points. I wish that we would of saw that coming, we should have honestly. Those players wanted to show people that they weren't the problem, but Hacket was. Now do they have it in them to try again, at home for the fans? They really don't have anything else to play for. I believe that the Chargers are locked into their seed(not sure), so they might not have anything to prove here. Nor would they want to get into a rumble with that defense in altitude. The Broncos will be a wise guy spot here imo. The public will be on the Chargers. Who in their right mind would want to ride with Russell Wilson? Fuckin ay I think I do. It feels right. Let's go over the details and anything else before placing a wager.
"There are penis conventions?" -trainwrecks next post
I get the feeling that the 49ers don't let the Cardinals do a Raiders on them this week. Just a feeling. I'm not implying laying 14, just not thinking AZ +14 is a smart bet.
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Cardinals +14 @ 49ers 40
I get the feeling that the 49ers don't let the Cardinals do a Raiders on them this week. Just a feeling. I'm not implying laying 14, just not thinking AZ +14 is a smart bet.
I bet the Lions for 2.50 units, posted on last week's thread. Got my reasons there. Hugh pointed out the playoff fuckery of the Lions the way they time slotted this game and Seattle/Rams.
I'm still rolling with Dan Campbell in prime time whether his motivation is to make the playoffs or play spoiler.
That's all of them, good luck
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Lions +4.5 @ Packers 49.5
I bet the Lions for 2.50 units, posted on last week's thread. Got my reasons there. Hugh pointed out the playoff fuckery of the Lions the way they time slotted this game and Seattle/Rams.
I'm still rolling with Dan Campbell in prime time whether his motivation is to make the playoffs or play spoiler.
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