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CD Newsletter week 18(safe house edition)

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Posted: #26

@dubz4dummyz

 @monkeebooger

 Thanks for the info peace_5

 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Rams +6.5 @ Seattle 41.5 This is a tough # to bet. I have 2 impossible futures tickets on the Seahawks that I've been looking to hedge on in some fashion. And I'm trying to figure out if this is the game to do it. If Seattle wins, they need the Lions to beat the Packers to get into the playoffs. Which feels kind of unfair, as when the Lions see the Seahawks win, then they don't have a chance(Det/GB is at night). My hedge would have to be Rams ats, as I don't trust them to win outright in Seattle. But currently I have no idea if there is any value in that # as I haven't looked at the game. But I suspect there should be since the Rams got hammered by the Chargers, and Seahawks beat the Jets. Any help on handicapping this game would be appreciated.

 

Seahawks run game suddenly alive. They at home. They just beat a better Jets team. They have everything to play for....The rams probably want to avoid injury...I would before vacation...but it is divisional...and anything over 3.5/4.5 is lots in a divisional

 
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Posted: #28

Lions +4.5(-110) *2.50/2.27

Lions ML(+185) *.50/.93

Patriots +7.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Panthers +3.5(-115) *1.15/1.00

Panthers ML(+160) *.35/.56

Will gather up record later, good luck everyone. 

 

 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Vikings -4 @ Bears 46 We talked a little about this game in last week's thread. The Bears have draft position to gain in losing, and the Vikings have seeding to gain in winning.  The line is inflated by a point or 1.5 pts or so because of this, but I don't know if it's enough for me to bet the home dog here. The Bears depth is terrible. The Vikings play is terrible. Being out doors and weather reports from Hank pending, I could see a slight advantage for the Bears if they get their ground game going. Justin Fields needs 64 yards to break Lamar's qb rushing record. I'll watch, just to watch I guess. Can't lean on a side or total at the moment.

 

 

I was listening to the SCORE, 670 AM, this afternoon.  Dan Bernstein is convinced that the entire Bears team, except for Fields, is on waivers.  Their lack of talent is amazing.  His rhetorical question was "who could start on a good team in the NFL?".  Their best defensive player already got shipped out before the season was over.  The Bears aren't going to let their only franchise player get hurt.

If you are liking the Vikings, bet them now.  The line is only going up.

 
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:

Vikings just moved to -6. Strong possibility Fields sits

If Nathan Peterman gets the start, I don't think the Bears could cover 14 let alone 6.

peace_5

 
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Posted: #31

@Cranky_Hank

That's a little much. Gotta love our Bears talk radio over reaction gods.

I'd say about 30 to 35% of the roster needs to be replaced, which is still a big haul. 

 
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Posted: #32

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Saturday: Titans +6.5 @ Getty's 39.5 I can't help but to lean the Jaguars here, and in a very "square like" view. And I'm not even hesitant on my opinion.  Watching the Titans last 6 weeks is like watching an old dog die, one that knows his time is up but somehow keeps chugging along. Their IR and injury list is incredibly long, recently losing a starting safety.  One might say that they have extra rest, and that Derek Henry sat last game. In all honesty, we have to admit that Henry has lost tread on his tires this year. The amount of carries and yards he's put on his legs is reaching the limit. Every RB has a shelf life, including freak specimens as himself.  The total of 39.5 at first glance could entice the "dog and the under" type of bettors, but I must say this spread and total is suggesting a Jaguars blow out. You'd have to put on your best Johnny Cochraine impression to sway me onto the Titans side, but I'd love to hear it.

Normally I'll side with Vrabel in a game like this but he's outmatched by Pederson, Lawrence and a defense which has not given up a TD in 2 straight games. It's an obvious trending up/trending down scenario but the sharp money played Titans +7. They're just playing a number and I get it. The value is on the over 39.5. Tenny with Dobbs showed they're capable of moving the ball even without Henry. Jax still has issues with mobile QBs and may see a dose of Willis from time to time. The Jags haven't had to speed up the offense in recent weeks but they will this time after the Titans get out to an early lead.

I'm betting Tennessee for the 1Q +1.5, Jax live betting after the Titans strike first, and the game over 39.5. Jags win 28-18 

 
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Posted: #33

@undermysac

 thumbs_up

 
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Posted: #34

Arent the Lions n with a win...confused

 
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Posted: #35

@bigred84

 

 Only if Seattle loses. Lions don't control their own destiny

 

GB in driver seat...win and in

 

That's why some don't agree with det/gb as last game....det eliminated before kickoff if seattle win

 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:

@bigred84    Only if Seattle loses. Lions don't control their own destiny   GB in driver seat...win and in   That's why some don't agree with det/gb as last game....det eliminated before kickoff if seattle win

The only legit "playoff game" is Jax/Tennessee but the powers that be didn't like the national interest in the game for the SNF finale. So they'll showcase it on Saturday in a stand alone game at 8:20 which is not considered prime time for the product. Even still, it's better than being thrown in the regular Sunday window.

 
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Posted: #37

@Getty3

 Jags in with a loss...only if pats, dolphins and steelers losepeace_5 crazy I know

 
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Posted: #38

Hawks/Jags 6 point 2 team teaser at -110 gets them each at -1/2 point...2 team ML Parlay is -121.   I like them both to win.  Going with the tease for juice reasons.  1 unit on that for now @ -110

4 team 13 point teaser lines you up at -130 with 4 motivated home teams: Jags +6.5, Hawks +6.5, Eagles -1, Pack +8.5.  I doubt the Jags, Hawks, or Pack are going to get blown out this weekend, and the Eagles still want that 1 seed and should be able to TCB against the GMen backups.  Put 1/2 unit on that for now at those lines. 

Dolphins +10, Raiders +17.5, Steelers +7.5 @ -120  Put 1 unit on that.  

nice job sac. thanks peace_5

 

 
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Posted: #39

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/chicago-bears-insider-hints-at-possibly-enormous-roster-move/%3famp

 
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Posted: #40

@dubz4dummyz

 wow....peace_5

 
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Posted: #41

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfc-playoff-clinching-scenarios-for-week-18-of-2022-nfl-season

Nfl.com has the nfc scenarios up, but not the afc. There still is no line for Ravens/Bengals.

Something has to be up with how they will determine playoff seeding in the afc because of this canceled game. I heard something about using win % instead of records, obviously the Bills and Bengals will be 1 game short 

 
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Posted: #42

Only game no time set is Ravens  n  Cinncy......confused

 
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Posted: #43

Here's some over thinking on the way....but,

If the Billls win vs Pats, they'd be 13-3

If KC loses vs the Raiders,  they'd be 13-4

So the Bills get the 1 seed and a playoff bye.

This week 17 canceled game, in a sense, was also a bye as they barely played. That would give them essentially 3 bye's this year.

They also had a neutral field game in Detroit because of the blizzard. So they lost a home game.

And now a player that almost died on the field.

That's a heck of a season.

 
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Posted: #44

Seahawks game should be 820 pm too...that's BS....an_shake

 
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Posted: #45

@undermysac

 Chiefs aint losing to the Raiders....Stidham isnt Joe Burrow...

Saw him at Auburn.....no...peace_5

 
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Posted: #46

If the Ravens beat the Bengals this week, they'll be 11-6, and the Bengals 11-5. And Cincy wins the division. 

I have a feeling that this canceled game will not sit well with some folks.

 
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Posted: #47

Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Saturday: Titans +6.5 @ Getty's 39.5 I can't help but to lean the Jaguars here, and in a very "square like" view. And I'm not even hesitant on my opinion.  Watching the Titans last 6 weeks is like watching an old dog die, one that knows his time is up but somehow keeps chugging along. Their IR and injury list is incredibly long, recently losing a starting safety.  One might say that they have extra rest, and that Derek Henry sat last game. In all honesty, we have to admit that Henry has lost tread on his tires this year. The amount of carries and yards he's put on his legs is reaching the limit. Every RB has a shelf life, including freak specimens as himself.  The total of 39.5 at first glance could entice the "dog and the under" type of bettors, but I must say this spread and total is suggesting a Jaguars blow out. You'd have to put on your best Johnny Cochraine impression to sway me onto the Titans side, but I'd love to hear it. Normally I'll side with Vrabel in a game like this but he's outmatched by Pederson, Lawrence and a defense which has not given up a TD in 2 straight games. It's an obvious trending up/trending down scenario but the sharp money played Titans +7. They're just playing a number and I get it. The value is on the over 39.5. Tenny with Dobbs showed they're capable of moving the ball even without Henry. Jax still has issues with mobile QBs and may see a dose of Willis from time to time. The Jags haven't had to speed up the offense in recent weeks but they will this time after the Titans get out to an early lead. I'm betting Tennessee for the 1Q +1.5, Jax live betting after the Titans strike first, and the game over 39.5. Jags win 28-18

I'm way ahead of you on the Over .. I've been eyeing the total when it first came out..

This week I got :

Getty / Titans over 38.5

Colts / Texans Over 38

Giants / Eagles Over 42.5 

Raiders +8 , ML+317

 

Good Write up Sac , Let's put our heads ( I'm talking about the Head you use to think, for you dirty bastardsan_arsed )  together and make some money this week.

I think the Rams might want to play the spoiler, They won't lay down that easily. The same thing can be said about the Broncos. They won't lay down either.

 

 
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Posted: #48

Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:

@undermysac  Chiefs aint losing to the Raiders....Stidham isnt Joe Burrow... Saw him at Auburn.....no...

And I just saw him drop 34 on the 49ers peace_5

 
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Posted: #49

@Cyrax

 Leaning Rams and Broncos peace_5

 
 
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Posted: #50

@undermysac

 U have a better chance of being 7 foot tall  next Monday....peace_5

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