CD Newsletter Week 5

After the Texans lost to the Bills 0-40, I can't help to remember that they beat Jacksonville in week 1.

And that posses one question to Getty, honestly how bad are the Jaguars?

Forecast for TNF in Seattle says Temps in the 40's. If Goff was still QB this line would be Seattle -3 minimum. Stafford shouldn't play like Goff 2 weeks in a row no?

Jaire Alexander is hurt for the Packers, their best DB. He hasn't been ruled out but it doesn't sound promising,  while talks of "long term" plans supersede talks of if he'll play this week.

The Packers D looked great vs Pitt, but what D hasn't vs that offense?

Meanwhile the Bengals bolster the 5th best D per Dvoa. They are young and have speed all over the field.

As Hugh mentioned, extra rest and prep coming off TNF.

The Bengals are 10th overall in dvoa, and the Packers sit at 17.

This is a flat spot for the Packers otr with a divisional game on deck. Cincinnati surely won't be looking ahead to a game with the Lions.

What gives the Packers the right to be road favs here? Is it the name "Aaron Rodgers"? I bet that's it, it has to be. The public will undoubtedly be on the Packers. 

QB Rating thus far...

Rodgers #12 at 100.8

Burrow  #6 at 113.8

This is my best bet of the week 

MLB in this thread:
https://www.covers.com/forum/penalty-box-41/cd-newsletter-week-4-103565620/9#post-129533627

2-0 +5.6U

FUTURES:

WIN NL
SF +250 1U
WIN AL
TB +240 2U

Was about even money on my MLB season until the end of the season when the futures cashed. Got killed on all my pre season futures (SD all over the place, LAD and CWS both UN RSW, MIA and KC both OV RSW and to win the division)

So take what I saw with a very tiny grain of salt

Tonight I was going to take the home team for this single game elimination but was waiting for lineups and mostly a better line as all the meathead NYY bettors start piling in.

But the more I think about it this will be a bullpen game at almost any time, Sale not able to pitch if necessary and NYY having the better pen. JD Martinez in or out matters little to me. He's out.

Tonight AL WC

NYY -133 (Action/Action) 2U

Really want the Redfeet to win. I love the city and Fenway Park and all. Problem is the Yankees all or nothing bats can end this game in crunch time. Boston shouldn't be a home underdog but they are and that's the other problem.  Go Sox!

Adding on

Tonight AL WC

NYY TT OV 4½ +120 1U

It's a 1-15 team from a year ago which have gotten nothing from 3 of the 4 1st round picks over the past 2 drafts. Lawrence is going to be so good but he isn't there yet like most rookie QBs. WR Chark and RG Cann both put on IR today. I think the offense can and will be productive but the defense has been playing over it's head. That was very evident in last weeks game where they shut the Bengals out in the 1st half and then allowed 24 easy points in the 2nd half.

I'd be more inclined to focus on Jaguar over the total bets than anything else for the time being.

1st bet of the week is Over 48 JAX/TENN Pass go and collect your money.

Dont get me wrong ...I love the Bosox and always root for them ...as they say bet with your head not with the heart 

Some thoughts on last night's MNF game ...

Once the Raiders had to bring in a 5'8" back up CB as a result of injury to the CB who was playing in front of him, and they put him on 6'4" Mike Williams who is an athletic freak, and the announcers kept saying to throw it to Williams, Hugh from his couch in his underwear was screaming throw it to Williams, and Herbert rarely looked his way. Honestly, other than the first drive, I didn't care for the play calling at all. Herbert did miss Williams on a go route for a sure TD. The long pass to Allen wasn't over thrown, for some reason Allen got alligator arms on the play.

Last comment on this game ... LAC up 21-14 in the 4th qtr, with a 4th and 3 on their own 49. Normally I'm one who believes you should go for it on 4th down in just about every questionable situation. Chargers went for it last night, and I thought they should have punted. If you don't get it the momentum would have swallowed that entire stadium and LV is starting on your side of the field. Too dangerous there for me ... but the Chargers went for it and got it

@Biscuiteater1

 Back in the day, I used to post(in the PB) strictly unders in MLB (Bizarro World Plays). So me taking an over in a baseball game is like me backing Liverpool(never focking happen). Inconceivable. 

Mark Carlson umping tonight.

Eovaldi 3 games ERA 1.89

Cole 4 games ERA 2.96

Carlson this year had averged 17.85 k's per game, and 6.58 walks per game.

Cold air tonight, wind blowing in, 2 studs on the bump...gun to head I'd be on the under.

64% on the Yankees, 56% on the over

It's akin to Cyrax betting an Under

I have made my wager. As a life long tortured Mets fan, I am going to bet against the hated Yanks.

This is a bet on the Sox by default. They just happen to be the team that the Yankees are playing

You should be able to buy out if the Yanks get no runs in the 1st 

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Yes, by jove.

Up is down.

Down is up.

@lbcake

 I get it

@Hugh_Jorgan

 just missed...

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Fuck him and the  he rode in on.....

@undermysac

a certain someone is also     ill let the group guess

Cowboys release Jaylon Smith (thank you Jesus). 

Im sure another team will sign him because PFF has him as the 11th ranked LBer, and he led the team in tackles last year. The other side of that coin is that in my entire life I have never seen a LBer make more bad reads than Jaylon. He has been solely responsible for more big plays against than any defender in the history of the team. I say this with complete sincerity. 

Maybe the team feels that rookie Jabril Cox is ready. He is yet another speed freak. Releasing Jaylon now also probably means that Neal will be back this week 

I was yelling at the TV for the chargers to throw it in the flats...They were killing the raiders there , but kept going elsewhere ...

@Hugh_Jorgan

 
don’t follow Sturm on Twitter.  He has so many videos of how bad Jaylon truly is.  

@Getty3

You have to read Mike Silver’s Twitter regarding the Urban Meyer fiasco. Silver claims a player told him that Meyer had little credibility before this weekend and has none now. Player also claimed they felt Meyer was lying to them when he spoke to the team, and that they busted out laughing as soon as he walked out of the room. If this is true he is done in Jax