CD Newsletter Week 7

For starters, I am demanding that TW bring his ass back in this thread. It's kinda lonely in here without all of his boner-provoking commentary.

Indy-Tenn is the only game this week featuring 2 teams with winning records.

NO @ Ari -1 44.5 (Thur Night)

Jameis the open receiver Winston might be back under Center this week for the injury riddled Saints, who have been playing without WR's Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, not to mention one of their backup WR's, and TE Adam Trautman. They are also without their best CB in Lattimore. The Saints at 2-4 are still very much alive in the division being only 1 game behind the Bucs. Meanwhile the Cards at 2-4, and also 1 game behind the leaders of their division appear to have about as much chance as a walleye swimming by Sacs boat. Ari does get Deandre Cheater Hopkins back from suspension this week, which will help their beleaguered offense, and also added Robbie put-me-in-coach Robinson from the Panthers (yawn). If the Saints were healthier they would be my initial lean, but I don't really know who is suiting up for the this week.

Det @ Dal -7 48

The Lions have become easy to root for, and after both their offense and defense lit up the scoreboard the first 4 weeks, they got blanked by the Belichicks in week 5. They had their bye last week. Cowboys coming off the Sunday night rivalry game get #4 back for the first time since week 1. Thumb injuries on throwing hands are historically tricky, as the thumb may feel fine, but QB's who have had similar injuries have been known to randomly throw ducks for a few weeks after returning. Status of TE Schultz is unknown right now, but rookie TE Furgeson sure looks the part of a TE1. Cowboys D will play well this week ... again. Crap shoot how well Dak plays. Lean Cowboys and Under

NYG @ JAX -3 42.5

GMen roll into Florida sporting the 2nd best record in the NFL. Not a person alive seen that coming. As Sac likes to point out, the battling Getty's are a DVOA darling, but only have a 2-4 record to show for it. Only the Bills and SF have given up less YPC than the Jags, which bodes well for containing Saquan, Of interest, NY is +14 in point differential, Jax is +24. I suspect NY to be flat after their emotional last second win last week. Love the Getty's in this spot, especially at less than a FG

Indy @ Tenn -2.5 43.5

The Matt Ryans got to 3-2-1 with a gutsy win last week. I know I am in the minority, but I love Frank Reich as a HC. The Colts need to run the ball to have success, unfortunately their all-world RB JT is questionable to return this week from injury, as is his backup, Hines. The Tits are reasonably healthy and coming off their bye. HC Vrabel is 4-0 with the weeks rest. Why is this line only 2.5???

Atl @ Cin -6 47.5

Both teams at 3-3 which is a little surprising, but what is really shocking is that ATl has outscored the Joe Cool's. Hard to get a read on either team thus far, but we should expect plenty of points. (Cyrax can be heard cheering in the background)

Cle @ Bal

We all know how this game will go ... Ravens will jump out to a 47-0 lead after 3 quarters, and bigred will post in this thread how the punt returner is the greatest QB ever. Then as the game clock strikes zero, and Balt has lost 49-47, bigred will re-enter the thread to blame one play in the 1st quarter as being the reason his beloved team lost. Speaking of the punt returner, he carries the ball in one hand and away from his body. Fumbling in big spots will be an issue for him again this season. Go Browns!!! (BWS just puked)

TB -11 @ Car 40.5

Perhaps instead of screaming at his O-line, TB12 should have showed up at the teams Saturday walk-through instead of attending Kraft's wedding. Coupled with Brady's 2 week absence earlier in the year due to marital woes, there's is no way in hell that he has not lost some respect in that locker room. They are in a little disarray at the moment, but not nearly as much as the team they are playing.

GB -5.5 @ WFT 41.5

The Ayahuasca kid has proven to be a much better QB than a GM. Perhaps it's time for him to stop dictating who the team signs and just focus on playing football. I won't write the Pack off yet, Rodgers is still Rodgers and the NFL regular season is still his neighborhood. Is there any doubt that Riverboat Ron had something to do with the Wentz injury? I don't know who he paid, or who he prayed to, but he got what he wanted. Da Bears once had Miller time, well now the Skins have Heineken time. I believe this is an upgrade at QB for WFT, but I think they are waking into a very difficult situation this week. Lean GB

NYJ @ Den -2 39.5

The J-E-T-S  are becoming quite interesting. I'm still not sold on their young QB's ability to play football, but I am more than impressed with his ability to bang cougars. NY has a few play makers on D, but overall that unit still has some holes. Denver brings the better D into this game, plus the HFA. Broncos 0-3 on the road, but 2-1 at home, even after last nights OT loss. OK, so Russ can't cook, matter of fact don't even let him near the kitchen. WTF happened to him? Did you see Jeudy showing frustration during the game? Russ has lost the locker room ... but it's a must win for the Bronco's, and playing at home, so lets' drink some pepto bismol and take Den

Hou @ LVR -7 45.5

Texans at 1-3-1 somehow come into this tilt with the better record. I wouldn't bet this game with the loose change from bigreds infamous couch, but Hou is probably due to get blown out by someone.

KC -3 @ SF 48.5

Chiefs coming off a huge game and will be hard pressed to be in a peak emotional state this week. KC's D played better last week, but let's not be fooled, they still are not very good. I would love the 9ers in this spot, however of the projected 11 defensive starters going into the season, only 2 are healthy. (thank God bigred is not a 49er fan ... that's 3 mentions already for bigred!) I still lean SF, pending injury reports. I might love SF by kickoff.

Sea @ LAC 6.5 51

The flying Geno's visit the much injured Chargers in what should be a Cyrax wet dream type of game. (2 mentions for Cy). Geno is balling right now, and should have success against the Chargers D. Unfortunately for old man Carroll, every QB will have success against the Lesion Of Doom he is trotting out onto the field every week. Cyrax Special

Pitt @ Mia -7 44.5

Who starts at QB for the Steelers this week? I'm not sure it matters. I expect Mia to put up points on an untalented Pitt defense. Once the Steeler QB is forced to play catch-up in the Miami heat, the blow out will be on.

Sac's @ NE -8 39

This is the lowest total on the board and for good reason. Expect another insomnia-curing type of game between these 2 teams. Belichick knows the Bears are limited on offense, so he will make this a close to the vest, methodical type game. Most interesting aspect of this game is who plays QB for NE

Word 

Excellent job Hugh 

@Hugh_Jorgan

We need to talk about your Boys vs the Lions.

There's an interesting matchup here that is catching my eye, and that's thee best o line in football vs the #1 pass rush in football. 

Per dvoa, Detroit #1 pass protection vs Dallas #1 pass rush. Unstoppable force meet immovable object.

But Detroit has the edge in run blocking, #3 in adjusted line yards, vs Dallas #13 adjusted line yards, and Dallas has the #32 power rank. They're built on speed and pure quarterback murdering, not particularl for getting gritty in the trenches vs a 3 point stance.

D'Andre Swift should return, he's missed 3 weeks now if you include the bye. He was ridiculously good with a sample sized 27 carries thus far. And a major threat as a receiver. His back up Jamal Williams has been surprisingly good, 13th in effective yards, and 14th by dvoa.

I got an itch that the bye week, combined with the embarrassing 0-29 loss last time out will have the Lions playing inspired football. 

Also, if you remember I faded the Lions vs the Pats. One of the reasons was that it was their first outdoor game. They get the comfort of a dome again, fwiw.

And as you mentioned, in your best Dave Wanstedt voice, "Dak has a thumb". It may be healed, but does he have all his strength back? Also, the Cowboys as a team held the ship steady in Dak's absence. In other words, did they play "up" while Cooper Rush was at the helm? Of course they did, Rush wasn't the reason they won while he was gone.

Do the Cowboys exhale now that their leader is back?

Just something to think about, I personally find that +7 attractive, considering all those factors.

NFL 27-21-2 (+8.48)

MLB 4-6-2 (-1.81)

Week 6: 2-7 (-4.50) 

Jets +3(-110) *1.10/1.00

ML(+145) *.25/.36

Seahawks +7(-110) *1.25/1.14

ML(+255) .25/.64

Falcons +6(-110) *1.00/.91

All look ahead lines. As mentioned above leaning Detroit. Also leaning the Getty's as I agree with Hugh's thoughts.

In 2 weeks I'll be in Dallas for the Bears game. Current look ahead is Bears +9.5, and I'll be auto betting that as I always do, when my buddy's gather for our annual destination game.

@BIGDTITLE

Best bars and strip clubs?

My friends are animals, much more so than me. I get anxiety because any one of them could get into a fight, go to jail, or go missing. 

Last year in Cleveland, one guy pissed the couch after showing up at 4am missing his shirt and wallet. Another guy didn't sleep for over 2 days cause of too much coke, and he got really weird. Another guy cheated on his wife for the 3rd or 4th time. 

Years ago for that Denny Green "we let them off the hook" game, 2 of my buds never made it into the game because the police tazered them at the gates and put them in jail.

Pitt @ Mia -7 44.5

Who starts at QB for the Steelers this week? I'm not sure it matters. I expect Mia to put up points on an untalented Pitt defense. Once the Steeler QB is forced to play catch-up in the Miami heat, the blow out will be on.

Tua looks to be back for this one.  Will he be Tua or Timid?   Tomlin will bring the heat.  Tough one.   Thats a lot of T's 

@undermysac

Sherlocks by the stadium (assuming its still open, thats where Josh Hamilton got a few handies in the bathroom) for after the game followed by Ricks Cab off 183   

I like your style Hugh 

Pepto Bismol used to love that stuff now just go with the big soft fruity chewables 

Right now is my 1st look @ the lines and the Miami - 7 does seem to scream take me.

TW is busy as a beaver getting ready for winter, killing animals large & small, chopping wood and shoring up the igloo. 

Dont get me started on the Ravens but chew on this, if Joe Flacco had not gone down when he did Harbaugh stood a good chance of getting the boot at the end of the season, Biscotti had hinted as much. Ravens get the win and cover.

This is always a concern, as is any thumb injury. Tough to bet the Boys this week.

On the other side, it is possible that the Goff-led powerhouse that was the Lions offense simply came back to reality vs the Pats, and they are not really that good.

Side note - starting this week, Dallas plays against the NFC North teams in 4 consecutive weeks

What are the chances that TW keeps a woman chained up as a sex slave in his igloo?

Spanish Primera     Cadiz v Betis    Betis to win (2.10)
Portuguese 2 (Segunda)     Nacional v Vilafranquense   O2.5 (2.20)

Europe 3-6  (-2.925)
America 17-8  (+9.185)

Hugh dotes on that 58.

If i thought Carolina would be able to put 17 on the board i'd gladly take 10 - 11, problem is they have done so only twice. Their pass D is basically middle of the pact, but they dont get much pressure on opposing qb's.

Tigger  .....play the House of Pain....

U actually write very well....

Bravo, Hugh ! Even Red thinks you write very well 

Jaguars full steam ahead. The local mouth pieces are already predicting doomsday against the 5-1 Gigantes despite all of them chalking this game up as a likely win at the start of the season. I love New York's coach but Pederson has been just as sharp without the results so far. Big regression game incoming. Jax in a mostly one sided affair 27-14.

This is all I need to hear, they're making my card 

You're starting to remind me of TW