CD Newsletter Week 7

red....if you gonna talk all that game you should participate in the newsletter...it's the way of the box

you surely put yourself out there enough so juke and jive your way through it and squeeze in some flooring and ravens talk in each review...should be funner than a cup o noodle at midnight in the basement of uncle charlie's daddy-o...

C'mon man...do it and shut everyone up or may your flooring forever be bent...

Tigger said he doesnt want me to do it....

He did a great job last time.....

Let Cyrax or Hank do it...

Flooring is what I do.....

42  years..

Panthers @ Commanders -7.5 (51.5)

I did the math, this line is good. I'm surprised the books didn't bump it, because the Panthers do nothing but underwhelm and disapoint any of their few backers.

They are 1-5 and their expected wins are the same. They are terrible. 

If Bryce Young were to be the starter, I'd make this line 10.

To recap my summer predictions on the Commanders, and how I've done betting on them so far. I'm 0-1 after losing on them in week 1. Since, they're 4-1 su, 4-0-1 ats. Winning su as dogs twice, of +7.5 and +3.5

I hate myself and want to die

@ABooksNightmare

Red only likes too talk when his team is winning or his unposted plays are still undefeated after 30 years 

Shit....missed the edit...I shouldnt of said that ...gonna get an earful of bullit points here....my bad...I apologize 

They win a lot Wreck......

Dont be bitter cause u bet the Under in the Ravens game on Sunday....

@bigred84

 You got me on that one ....totally steaming on that under ...cutting myself

it dropped a point....52.5  to  51.5.....

Was shocked it only hit 53.....

Chiefs @ Niners -1(-115) 41.5

LFG this is gonna be good. SB rematch time.

There's a ton I can talk about in this game, and I'm sure that we will throughout the week.

I'd like to emphasize these teams in terms of halves, and how good or poor they play in the first and second halves.

The Niners with Kyle Shanahan in particular have been known to blow leads. It's true, it's a real problem. It follows Shanny way back to when he was the OC of the Falcons.

Against the Rams this year, the Niners were up 21-7 with 7:11 left in the 3rd quarter. With 11:57 left in the 4th, the Niners kicked a fg to go up 24-14, and they would not score again. The Rams went fg, td, and fg with 2 seconds left. End of game. 

Against the Cardinals, the Niners were up 23-10 at halftime. And they would not score again. The Cardinals went fg, td(2pt conversion), fg with 1:37 left. End of game.

These 2 games were divisional, so their opponents had familiarity with the Niners. Andy Reid played the Niners in the SB, the Niners had a 10-3 lead at halftime. Both teams traded leads a bunch in the 2H, with the Chiefs coming out on top in OT. In 2022, the Chiefs played SF where the Niners came out to a 10-0 lead mid way through the 1st quarter. The Chiefs took the lead in the 2nd quarter and never looked back in a 44-23 drubbing. 

Reid is familiar enough with Shanahan. And he is far superior to McVay and Jonathan Gannon. 

There's a site that I have followed for years that does 1H and 2H power rankings, they go like this.

KC 1H #13(1.1) SF 1H #3(8.2)

KC 2H #2(6.9) SF 2H #27(-4.2)

We've all seen this movie before. Andy Reid will out coach Shanahan in the second half. Put aside your hate for KC, all the referee alleged bias towards the Chiefs, and the Taylor Swift noise. Some will say that history repeats itself, and I don't see why it wouldn't here.

To add to it, we have the Andy Reid off a bye angle, the oldest and truest of trends there is. Reid is the master game planner, we all saw what he did to the Saints with limited weapons available 2 weeks ago.

KC is 4th in dvoa, SF is 5th. 

2 big disparities in this matchup is special teams, KC #14 dvoa, SF #31. And SOS, KC #1, SF #21.

Without discussing injuries and other things I'll leave it at that, who do you got?

Jets -1.5(-113) @ Steelers (38)

Shitty game to cap because of all the moving pieces.

The Steelers have big o line injuries, lost their starting center last game, and starting guard the previous game. Going back to pre season they lost their projected starting center then. And now is the time that Tomlin is hinting at Russell Wilson getting reps with the starters in practice? Wtf, maybe he's just trying to light a fire under Fields ass? Not a good spot for either qb behind this line, as the Jets d line is stout as can be(except vs the Bills).

The Jets fire Saleh, keep Hackett, lose to the Bills, and now aquire Davante Adams. All on a short week. And this is supposed to make them road favs in Steeler country?

Let's not forget that the Jets have thee worst kicker in football, in the most difficult stadium to kick field goals.

Gun to head I'm taking Tomlin as a home dog vs an interim coach. 

Ravens -3.5 @ Buccaneers (48)

I can't believe that the total isn't 67.

Both teams are 4-2.

In the Ravens 4 wins, their opponents point differential adds up to +35.

In the Buccaneers 4 wins,  their opponents point differential adds up to +107.

GOY Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML 

They wont punt.....

Gave up 27 points in a quarter....

To the Saints with Rattler....

Line dropping...

GFL...

Good Job on a short notice,  Sac

9 points is a lot and The total is kinda low, The total should go Over if the Titans head coach will let the offense play more.Still pondering the Total 

Chargers -2.5(-117) @ Cardinals (44)

The Chargers have played no one. The Cardinals have been through a gauntlet.

I respect Harbaugh's defense, but I want to see how his D has faired against mobile QB's. I'll be rooting for the dog if not betting on them.

Need more time to discuss this game further.

I'm drained, need a beer and a nap.

Good Luck everyone. 

@Cyrax

 The low total and high line in that game gravitates me to the dog(Titans)

  Good job....

Good job sac

We need se others to participate...I know the effort it takes for some of these newsletters to be put together so appreciate the time and opinions

Everyone else who doesn't contribute when asked...I'd insert the flipping off finger but it doesn't work anymore...

If bigred is winning all that then share the wealth how you come to those plays..

Glad you're OK . You gotta do what you gotta do to survive in FL

@undermysac

Tremendous effort

The Dankees go 2-0 up in the series, their bullpen is superior, as expected. Teams who have gone 2-0 are 76-15 overall.

@undermysac

 Great reading while sipping a coffee. Hell of a job!

I have a little down time at work. Can't remember exactly what I wrote last night about this game before it got zapped faster than BR resisting arrest at a taco bell drive through. 

I don't know if the Falcons, or Seahawks or good or bad yet.

Something is off about the Falcons, they seem to have ubber athletic guys on offense, and rely on just on their talents. In other words, to me, it looks like they just run random plays. Going for explosive plays. I don't really feel continuity, nor a solid gameplan in their play calling. But they have started to pop off some big plays.

The Falcons have been blessed with an amazing schedule to start the year. They've only had 2 road games, traveling to Philly and Carolina. This is their 5th home game of 7. Who stroked off the nfl schedule makers?

Don't know much about the Seahawks. I will admit that I've watched the least of them this year. They are coming off a bye which should be good.

The # at 3 gives me no reason to bet either team.

In general, the Newsletter has been very well written this year 

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Agreed...we have a dozen weeks left to change that....regression is bound to clog a colon or two

Nyet.

 Lish v Nish instead - BTS & Lish to win. A perfect throwball week and the Lish result ate into a negative 7 ish unit run.

I'm heading to the confessional. Just acquired some Liverp(h)ool to win outright (4.50).

  The # at 3 gives me no reason to bet either team.

2.5 now. Just purchased some Cons.