CD Newsletter Week 7

@bigred84

 YABFWP

@lbcake

While I consider myself quite well versed, in football (the real one) slang, your terms sometimes elude me, so let me give it a shot: that's Liechtenstein vs Gibraltar, right?

Betting on Pool seems like an emotional support bet, so in case they win the payout can serve as consolation . I see they have 2 big games upcoming, vs Chelsea and @ Arsenal, so those odds might shift. At those odds it's a value bet, gunners are chokers, so if it comes down to them and Pool, they'll find away to fumble it. The only concern remains Pep and shitty, imo this season will be decided by injuries, because the schedule is insane.

I'm preparing myself for some disappointments next week, Barca vs Bayern and 3 days after El Clasico, they ain't winning both.

GFYMIHA....

Will dig through the week 5 thread and update the record later.

Patriots +5.5(-108) *1.08/1.00

ML(+205) *.25/.51

Browns +6.5(-112) *1.12/1.00

ML(+230) *.25/.58

Raiders +7(-110) *1.00/.91

Chiefs ML(+102) *1.50/1.53

Buccaneers +3.5(-108) *2.16/2.00

ML(+168) *.75/1.26

I'm gonna be on the gmen as well I think, waiting out the line and injury reports. If this card doesn't give any of you guys a stroke, check on me Sunday morning for symptoms. 

The following are the look ahead lines for week 8. The Bears/Commanders game in week 8 has been moved to 325 central. Jim Nantz and Tony Romo will be in the booth for CBS. 

Vikings  -3 and 46 at Rams

Falcons at Bucs  -1.5 and 48

Eagles at Bengals  -2.5 and 48.5

Colts at Texans  -5.5 and 47.5

Ravens  -9.5 and 43 at Browns

Titans at Lions  -9.5 and 45

Packers  -4 and 48 vs Jags

Jets  -6.5 and 40 at Patriots

Cardinals at Dolphins  -2.5 and 47.5

Bills  -3 and 48 at Seahawks

Saints at Chargers  -6.5 and 39

Chiefs  -9 and 43.5 at Raiders

Bears at Commanders  -1.5 and 47

Panthers at Broncos  -4 and 43

Cowboys at 49ers  -7 and 49

Giants at Steelers  -3.5 and 37.5

@yaongingy

 3 options(IMO)  - Arse, Fool and Shitty. 

 Arse 11/8 (fuck that, not deserving - just don't see it)
Shitty 7/4
Fool 7/2

Boils down to Shitty and Fool. 

Shitty were pegged as 83% favs pre-season and now according to Opta 70%. Still favs, but not as strong.Their implied odds (36%) still make them a value play.

Fool have doubled their chances of titling. From 5% to 11ish%. Implied odds at 22% make them a super value play. Fool's back end is formidable (conceded 2 only). Salah and Diaz are in mid season form. Plus, it's Fool's best ever onset in history.  

As for Lish v Nish - ENGlish v FINnish

@undermysac

 That's a case of Symply's.

Tampa great selection....

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C97ZRXDxFbF/?igsh=bDI1cnhpcGY0dWk=

Good you didn't call it Land v Land

Hmmm Rodri is a big blow, didn't thought it could account for 13%, but their game isn't inspiring either. The problem with them is that they can afford to bring in some help, in January, if they need it.

I dunno they reign must come to an end, Pep has never spent so much time at one team. I saw that, unlike your guys, the rules don't apply to them, so they wont face any consequences for all those allegations? Ridiculous...

Btw, congrats on Tuchel.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAo5JvhscXI/?igsh=MWZ0eGUyejhtaG9kYg==

https://steelersdepot.com/2024/10/bill-belichick-weighs-in-on-steelers-qb-dilemma-says-russell-wilson-has-tough-task/

At 4-2, Tomlin is really making this a make or break moment for the Steelers. I mean, what's really going on here?

Did Tomlin maybe promise Russ that he was going to start no matter what when he got healthy? Is he just honoring his word?

I still have to believe that he's just playing mind games with the Jets. He's too good of a coach, right?

Den / Saints got me wondering how teams that swallowed a fifty burger fared next time out ATS. 2013 - 2014

3 - 2 but a tad deceiving cause one team lost in OT by the hook the other on a 48 yd TD pass with 38 secs left. Could have been 5-0 SU.

2014  5 - 2 very interesting year, the 2024 SB runner up Bears lost to the Pats 51 - 23 had a bye week to recover and lick wounds and comeback anew, but they came back the same with a 55-14 loss to the Pack.They did cover the following week. 

2015  2 -1

2016  None that I saw.

2017  1 - 4

2018 1 - 2 one of the losses was KC after losing 54-51 to Rams missed cover as fav by the hook 40-33 against Raiders (on memory)

2019  2 - 2

2020  0 - 1  

2021  4 - 0

2022  2 - 0

2023  1 - 1 - 1  the push did result in a SU win however

i did not count 2 games where the beat down occurred in the final game of season.

@Biscuiteater1

 Regarding the Saints and Broncos game, I didn't look into injuries at the time of doing the Newsletter. The Saints looking like the walking wounded

@undermysac

The final score against the Raiders was a tad misleading, since the Steelers defense did force 2 fumbles and had an INT. I can tell you that in the first Q, the Steleers where in Raiders territory and Caleb did the following: on 1st down he had a guy alone in the end zone, he didn't even see him; on 2nd down he overthrow a guy who was wide open; on 3rd down he overthrow another guy who was also wide open. All those 3 plays were in succession, and he should've made all those throws. I didn't follow him closely after they took the lead, but he did finish 14/24 with 145 yards.

You've seen Caleb play more than any of us in here, but I don't see it far fetched for Tomlin to give Russ a try. Also, I don't know how good the Jets are against the pass, because if Tomlin's game plan dictates they throw the ball more, why not put Russ in?

@Biscuiteater1

fifty burger aka Double Decker Jerry 

@yaongingy

 Majority(not including myself) will ptooey on it. German running anything English is openly frowned upon.

As for the Toffs, could fucking care less. Apathy has set in. Can add the 'Boys to the numb train.

The Shitty drop in odds has more to do with draws v Arse and Castle. Circle 01.12 for clarity.

@yaongingy

 I know you mean Fields.

Good points.

I think that the Steelers gameplan should be to run the ball, and run often. Especially when they are shuffling the o line due to injuries. 

The Jets D is # iin dropback epa, and #5 in dropback success rate. They are #2 in sack percentage. 

It's easier to run block than pass blocking, get those boys moving forward. 

The question is, do the Steelers want a mobile qb in there when that rush is coming at him, or a slow footed vet? I don't know what they are game planning, or how. 

This game has easily fallen to the un-bettable range for me.

^#6 in dropback epa

@lbcake

 Yeah, I saw the headline in the Daily Mail, on reddit, which was really uncalled for. I know tradition is important, in your neck of the woods, but I don't see how Tuchel is worse than Southgate, the man has actual achievements, trophies won, coached in the PL. One thing you can say he didn't have was continuity, at the clubs he trained, yet the NT should be something else. He can surely do better, given the talent in the England NT, at least aesthetically he can provide something better, than the terrorist tactics that Southgate had.

How numb are we talking? Comfortably numb?

Before that game Pool also play Real, at home, 2 big games 4 days apart.

@undermysac

Of course I was talking about Fields, couldn't edit it in time.

That's an ugly game to cap, but the Steelers do have a proper coach, as opposed to the Jets.

Saquon revenge game....looking at TD and his rushing prop....don't like that Mailata out for eagles (starting LT)...they usually run to his side (mailata/Dickerson combo is elite)

Sean Payton revenge game....Saints whole roster injured

Already locked in hou/gb over 46.5 on Monday morning....see 23-20 as the low score for the game so ill take a chance they score 4+ more points ...

Waiting to see where balt/tb sea/atl and det/min totals go....prefer 47 on all them as that gives you a push on 27-20....atl/sea opened at 49.0 for me prob shoulda bet it there but ill be patient and see if it somehow moves down

Nice work sac

The Giants have injury problems of their own.

Nost Tackle Dexter Lawrence didn't practice, hip injury. But, this interview makes me think he's fine.

https://youtu.be/ebAUc1Gc8FU?si=V5bVFdS6B3dnViRf

He's scoring an 89.6 per pff. He's a beast of a dude.

Linebacker Brian Burns didn't practice. LB Kayvon Thibodaux had wrist surgery after the Seattle game. Gonna need good LB play against Saquon. 

On the bright side, Malik Nabers was limited, and trending the right way to playing.