CD Newsletter Week 7

First division to have all 4 teams with 4 or more wins after 6 weeks in nfl history. 

All 4 teams rank #1,2,3,4 in point differential 

@undermysac

 I guess I wasn’t really paying attention.

We have some quality around here.

Saints are missing their good WR's.....

Tonite's Shitfest

FGs made O3.5 (2.25)     Denver L6 (5,4,4,4,3,4)

Sunday(and Monday)

Cons -2.5 (back to 3 - still good)
Commies -8
Zona +2.5

Josh Allen is the only remaining qb without an interception thrown.

Now somebody talk to me why we should back the Titans at +9(-105) or +9.5(-112)

@kidd22

Here's a good one....

When an undefeated team is coming off a bye week, they are 32-10 ats.

Play on kc and minny 

The Lions have created 69 qb pressures this year. Aiden Hutchinson accounted for 45 of them

See has the worst passing O. They'll have to make it a fg game (it just might be).

Ills short week, overlooking inferior opp, yada yada yada

Don't do it. 

@lbcake

 You're probably right 

I'd have to find something that really sticks besides all of the old school angles.

Josh's lanky ass is putting together a nice start thus far but yet something tells me he falls apart somewhere when the weather starts to get colder or his hot pocket starts to cool down

@undermysac

 Check, if you can, how good are the Bills @ home ATS, when the spread is -9 ore more. I seem to recall that if they get the chance, they don't stop scoring at home.

Also, bare in mind how excited Amari Cooper is to make his debut.

Tampa Bay  8-2  HD    ATS  on MNF.......

Bills 2-9 off SUATS  away win....

6-0   O after playing the Jets

Marc L  Playbook.......

Eagles are only team not to score in the 1st quarter this year.

In their 5 games they have gained a TOTAL of 22 yards on their 1st drive.

That is a reflection of poor coaching and nothing more

Patriots +5.5(-108) *1.08/1.00

ML(+205) *.25/.51

Browns +6.5(-112) *1.12/1.00

ML(+230) *.25/.58

Raiders +7(-110) *1.00/.91

Chiefs ML(+102) *1.50/1.53

Buccaneers +3.5(-108) *2.16/2.00

ML(+168) *.75/1.26

Titans 1H +6(-115) *1.25/1.09

Titans 1H ML(+255) *.50/1.28

Titans 1H TT O7.5(+140) *.50/.70

I really think that the Bills on a short week, after a tough game vs the division Jets get caught snoozing vs the 1-4 Titans.

If you look at all the Titan's game box scores, they've put up a fight initially, to only falter in the 2H. All of the coaches in Tennessee are young, Callahan is 40, Holz is 40, and Wilson is 42. Looks like they get a good gameplan throughout the week, to only get out coached after halftime.

Their defense especially has been stellar in the 1H. 8th in epa per play, 3rd in success rate. Conversely, the Bills defense has been particularly bad in the 1H. #28 in epa per play, and #26 in success rate.

By 1H power rankings, Titans #11(2.2), and Bills #12(1.6). It's the 2H I want no part of, waking up a sleeping giant in Josh Allen is scary. In the 2H the Titans are #28, the Bills #4.

In 5 games this year, the Titans have averaged 10.6 ppg in the 1H. Going 4-1 in going over the total of 7.5

The Bills TT for the 1H is set at 13.5, and the under is heavily juiced. You can get the over for +100 and +102, that can't be the average Joe's betting the under on a halftime TT imo.

In 6 games, the Bills are 3-3 in going over the total of 13.5, averaging 15.66 ppg. Although one particular game is skewing that average, if you haven't guessed which game that was, they dropped 34 in the 1H on the Getty's. A team that has been known to go through the most brutal of "boot camp" like practice sessions. If you don't believe me, reference the video I posted the other day.

Full disclosure, you all know that I'm backing Will Levis, and fading Josh Allen. That's what makes these kind of plays hard to make. But If it weren't for those 2, we wouldn't get these kind of #'s.

Currently I see 80% of the tickets and 89% of the $ on the Bills. I'd love to see my 1H bets cash, and the public cashing in on the Titans for the 2H in pure outrage, cause that would be futile imo.

Or, I just get my ass handed to me again and all this work is for nothing. Who likes pain?

Great find 

@undermysac

 Debating Pollard over 63.5 rush yards....if titans have any chance they play tight d and pound the rock...apparently tyjae spears won't play so its Pollards  game

Last 10 games games going back to Dec 19 2021, 10-0 SU, 4-5-1 ats.

But the last 5 games, going back to Oct 30 2022, 0-5 ats

Sirianni should have been fired imo...new article going around saying this is jalen hurts offense...not kellen Moores....makes sense. Looks nothing like what kellen ran in Dallas...hurts not good under center and in middle of field 

WTF is in the water in Baltimore???

https://nypost.com/2024/10/17/sports/john-callis-idd-as-ravens-fan-from-attack-video-arrest-warrant-issued/

Is Reid like 18-4 off a bye ?? Dunno of that SU or ATS but I know the record is wild

Edit found it...21-4

13-1 with eagles

8-3 with chiefs