CD Newsletter Week 8

In the last 20 years, this game was basically a scrimmage for Pittsburgh as they would circle the Baltimore game (even though Cleveland fans still consider it a rivalry)....  Your last sentence probably true, but this is also the first time in many many many years the Steelers may have it circled also after last years Playoff loss  

MLB

10-9-1 -1.33U

World Series GM1 GRADED

ATL/HOU UN 8½ -120 2U +2.00
ATL/HOU F5 UN 4½ -120 3U  -3.60

1-1 -1.60U

Second pitch of the game, lower middle strike not given to Valdez, that decided it right there and I knew it was going to be an over game, ump shrinking the strike zone. Morton also had a few in the 1st lower in the zone that should have been strikes. Somehow the pens rocked and kept it under. Morton with the unintentional intentional walk to Álvarez 1st AB you knew that ATL brass didn't have their heads up their asses and will probably win the series. A great game overall.

Tonight taking:

ATL F5 (Fried/Urq) -108 (at Fanduel) 4U

ATL FG (Fried/Urq) EV 2U

too bad ATL on the road clobbered HOU last night, would have loved to get F5 ML Fried as a dog or even better +½ -120

You are right, the Steelers definitely have this game circled and rightfully so.

@barneybeans

 The Steelers have it circled after getting curb stomped in the playoffs last season....

Missed ur post BWS.....

Peter King ( a liberal but fair) had a great piece about how racism goes both ways in the NFL even way back when. Ray Schoenke was a rookie at Cleveland's training camp in 1966 when he took his lunch to a table of the team's black players. A veteran named Monte Clark grabbed him by the arm and said "We don't sit there, you sit with us." Sounds awful right ? Backstory is that it was the legendary Jim Brown who established the "racist detente" not the white guys.

@barneybeans

 Tonight's ump has a big ole strike zone Ron Kulpa has the 4th lowest walk rate of all umps, and his o/u record for games between 8.5-10 runs is 7-14-1.

Just went over lineups thoroughly, gonna be a tough one. 

If I were a hitter prop player(and may be tonight) Yuri Gurriel over hits, bases and a HR may be worth a look.

The fact that no one has seen either horse on the mound with a nice under ump behind the dish is conflicting the lefty/righty and GB/FB splits for me here.

The Astros plate discipline vs Left hand starters is quite amazing. I was liking Fried over K's but can't pull the trigger. 

The Braves might be making a mistake by having their 1,2 and 3 hitters lefty's, Urquidy has allowed a .191 BA against em this year.

Plays up in a bit. Probably should just watch, but the gambling Gods beckon.

Some stats :

Of the 39 outright upsets this year, 24 have been by an underdog of 3 or less. (short favorites are fool's gold.)

The last 5 TNF games have stayed under the total. This was always a cash cow until the Covid 2020 season. The SNF and MNF games however have gone 10-3-1 to the over. (just follow the trend, it's been like this forever)

The biggest favorite of the week (opening number) is 8-0 S/U and 6-2 ATS (2 teams shared biggest fave for week 1)

Tried getting in contact with my sister in Hull, MA but they're obviously out of power after getting pummeled by a northern hurricane last night. 

@undermysac

 I believe the Gambling Gods are on the bookie's payroll.

so true

if you don't put up any money on tonight's game then you're not worthy of starting the usual Sac Hot Stove thread 22 seconds after the world series ends.

It would suck for you to lose that spot bro.

This is what we live for even if the Cubs are eating wings and crying in their popcorn while watching reruns of Rizzo's wedding video.

Put in a play godammit and give me something to tail that doesn't involve assless chaps

Adding on to my plays above:

ATL/HOU OV 8.5 -120 4U

Urquidy OVER 3.5 K's(+120) *1/1.20

Fried OVER 3.5 K's(-185) *1/.54

Fried UNDER 4.5 K's(-143) *1/.70

Trying to middle this the hard way...

1st 5 UNDER 4.5(-102) *1/.98

Gurriel OVER 1.5 bases(+130) *.50/.65

Gurriel HR(+650) *.50/3.25

@barneybeans

 You are terrible 

Hot stove thread can wait till the end of November damn it

Taking a Prop parlay because I like giving away monies and because I have a Fanduel account:

Gets a hit

Altuve -380
Rosario -290
Gurriel -240
Albies -290

Pays +207

1U

I like the Urquidy play, mine is EV right now.  I'll wait for my Live app to kick on a few minutes before 1st pitch.  Thinking Riley Over 1.5 total bases also, got -105 but I'll wait on that too

Just remember, after we push all that money through the window, there's always fishing, booze, women and cigars

Although I'm not part of Sac's complete MLB prop teaser reverse hedge world series extravaganza play of the century, I will cherry pick from those slim pickens:

Taking:

Gurriel HR (+600) ½U

I wish you luck. The weak link there is Albies I fear. And if KeyElement saw this, he'd tear into your ass about the odds you got

Correa TB o1.5 +115

GL gents 

Urquidy O 3.5 K's +120

Riley O 1.5 total bases +110

Good luck degens

https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/im-here-roof-will-be-open-tonight-and-dry-air-ball-is-carrying-take-the-over-103575946/1

Priceless 

Wind blowing in at 12mph from left center

Before even seeing who made that thread, I knew it was buffer

Because jinxing myself is fun:

Gets a hit

Altuve -380 
Rosario -290
Gurriel -240
Albies -290 

1 and a third innings so far...