CD NFL Newsletter #5

(TNF) DEN -3 Indy O/U 43. Hard to believe that Wilson and Ryan look like nothing more than veteran bridge QBs right now. Denver coach Hackett is a hack job but I've also soured on Frank Reich who seems to lack a sense of urgency. Very little interest in this game by sharp money which makes sense. One tidbit to throw out there : Games with a total of less than 44.5 but more than 49.5 have hit the under 64% so far. I would certainly consider the under here.

(SUN AM London) GB -8 NYG O/U 41.5 So Rodgers basically admits that he's not playing well and that the offense as it is is not sustainable. Fair enough. Rodgers has always taken some time to get in a groove. There is some optimism that Danny Jones will play but there's also a reason the Giants are auditioning AJ McCarron and Jake Fromm. I think this line can only go up from here so if you like the Packers bet them now. 

Charge -3 CLV O/U 48. You simply have to make a stand here. The banged up Chargers will win again on the road or the Browns will take advantage of a bad scheduling spot and win a game. Advantage Chargers.

NE -3 Det O/U 45.5. Dan Campbell said after Sunday that although he trusts DC Aaron Glenn, he will personally have some input on the defense this week. The Bailey Zappe led Pats and Belichick's own defensive mind should make for a surprising under the total opportunity here. Personally I like the Lions outright as well.

TB -8 Atl O/U 48. The Falcons are the only perfect ATS team in the league (4-0). Regression to the mean. Sharp money already moved the line from -7.5 to -8.5. This could be blowout city.

NO -5.5 Sea O/U 45.5  Seattle is already a public dog after learning that Geno Smith is suddenly Russell Wilson x 2. Great opportunity for the significantly better team to lay a beatdown on a road weary opponent. 

JAX -7 Hou O/U 44.5. Sharp money took Houston +7.5 and also bet the over. I'm on board with the over here as well. Pederson has been a godsend for this team and he won't let off the brakes despite an error filled game in the rain last week. Texicans truly are a bad team and the Jags owe them a punch in the mouth after losing both games last year. Jags 33-20.

BUFF -14 Pitt O/U 47.5 Pickett plays and Allen rolls. Not much to see here other than the Bills racking up points and the Steelers throwing in a few garbage scores. Over 47.5 is the play.

MIA -3 Nyj O/U 44 Jets are the most overachieving team in the league right now and people will look to Zack Wilson's 4th quarter last week as a sign that all is great. Miami with a better roster and coaching staff will win this game convincingly.

MIN -7 Chi O/U 43.5. Justin Fields has been sacked on almost 20% of his dropbacks this year. The Vikings are a nice team without leadership. This could be a closer game than people think. Too obvious to play the high flying Vikes at home at this short number.

SF -3.5 CAR O/U 39.5  Let down for the 9ers after MNF win? I think so. Panthers season is on the line here. They're not as bad as you think they are.

LAR -4.5 Dal O/U 43.5  Not buying the Rams this year but I think this becomes game of the year material for them if Stafford still has a fucking heart. The Cowboys Cinderella bullshit ends here.

Phl -5.5 AZ O/U 48.5 Give me the home dog here all day. Philly getting fat and happy even though they weren't that effective against Jax last week.

SHRIMP -3 Cinci O/U 48.5 Shrimp are winless at home and they'll continue to be after this game. Smart money playing the smart side which is Cinci.

2 blown huge leads....players hopefully  return Sunday night.....Harbaugh end game 

decisions are a joke...lots of hatred of Burrow...passed 7-11 employees blind

last year....Bowser/Houston and Ojabo...pass rushers might be ready....GL.....

Nice ink....

Good job Getty. Tough card this week. 

Steelers are on their 3rd left tackle, and lost their starting right tackle. I can't lay 14 in the nfl, nor will I back Pitt with 14. Also feels like a teaser disaster whatever side.

Leaning your Getty's and Pats. Both teams have had only 1 home game thus far, kinda playing from behind the eight ball in a sense.

Thanks Getty! 

Anyone notice that no teams in AFC North, AFC South, NFC South and NFC West have a winning record yet?  And who woulda thought the NFC East would have 3 teams with 3+ wins after week 4?

I think the Thurs night game will be "Must Miss TV" - expecting a frustrating, boring, back-and-forth slog, with plenty of mistakes, penalties and coaching F-ups.

How the hell are the Skins only 2 pt dogs at home?  Quick reaction is they should be maybe 6 point dogs?  But the more I'm thinking about it, maybe WAS is the play of the week?  

LAC is a west coast team playing a 1pm game on east coast time, but it's against the freaking Browns, so maybe that tendency doesn't matter?  Maybe they didn't even go back home after the game in HOU.  Anyone know?

The Skins are ready to implode....Rivera on his last legs.....Wentz looks very bad...

Cowboys toyed with them...Henry runs for 150 plus...

@bluecompass

was thinking the same......its messing with my head how the oddsmakers continue to dangle these can't miss lines against them.  I only have the Titans in a +7.5 tease for this week but for some reason I'm thinking that might end up being a sweat.  

Skins DL is elite even without chase ...what titans OL rank right now ? I think Lewan out. Didnt see colts/titans did colts get lotta pressure?

Titans coming off big win. Maybe let down spot? 

Trying to see what Oddsmakers see lol

NFL 18-9-2 (+9.49)

MLB 3-6-2 (-2.91)

Cowboys +7(-115) *1.00/.87

Seahawks +5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Jaguars -7(-110) *2.20/2.00

Jaguars -10(+128) *.80/1.02

Perfect spot for a bounce back vs maybe the worst team in the nfl. Trevor Lawrence had 4 fumbles last week and lost all of them. It's random who recovers them, very unfortunate. The rain screwed him, he had a college game(can't recall) where he sucked in the rain as well.

Davis Mills also has 4 fumbles on the season, but lost only 1. The discrepancy in QB talent between these 2 guys is astronomical. I don't have to explain those stats.

Here's a simple(but key) breakdown of dvoa ratings and sos of both teams.

Jax's sos by offense has faced the #4 rated defenses. Houston's D is ranked #27.

Houston's sos by offense has faced the #10 rated defenses. Jax's D is rated #6.

Jax's sos by defense has faced the #26 rated offenses. Houston's O is ranked #30.

Houston's sos by defense has faced the #32 rated offenses. Jax's offense is #12.

It's rare to find all those lined up in favor of one team, hence why I'm not hesitant to lay the chalk.

If we're worried about the back door, consider that the Texans are on bye next week. Do you think an 0-3-1 team is going to try and fight back from behind, or have one foot on the plane late in the game?

Lastly, they're coach is Lovie Smith.

Wash wins outright.

The 'west coast team playing east coast 1:00' angle has been over played for many years.

Whatever disadvantage there is has been factored into the line, as has the public's perception that there is still a disadvantage in betting such teams, thus the slight advantage becomes the west coast team.

It is similar to the 'Cowboys are a public team so there is no value in betting them' theory. At the start of the season I posted the Cowboys ATS record over the last 10 years, I believe they were about 10 games over 500.

Wash D-line is dominant, particularly their interior line. They gave the Dallas O-line fits last week. I do not see King Henry having a big game this week. Skins secondary isn't good, but Im not sure that Tannehill and his subpar WR's can take advantage.

Only 5 teams in the NFL have given up more points than Tenn ... although Wash is one of them

baker mayfield is as bad as you think he is. i approve of the rest of this message

@Getty3

 It really does not take much to get me thirsty on a sunday morning but these 1st 2 matchups are not much help. 

We interrupt this program to bring you some sad news .....

The guy who caught Judge's 62nd homer is an investment banker with a pretty hot wife who is a local sports reporter.

I'd be much happier for him and his potential financial windfall if he sold flooring for a living.

I'm guessing an investment banker doesn't need the money that badly

More sad news, Tommy Terrific and his ( without make-up & bright lights is somewhat homly wife) are on the outs. 

This was the rumor concerning his leave of absence during training camp. Where there's smoke there's fire. 

Breaking news

The TB situation may be my fault ... I never should of got involved with Gisele ... Crazy whackjob 

My Pappy taught me to be very very very leary of laying dd in any nfl game but i was thinking of doing just that with the Bills coming home after 2 tough games, but alas, they are calling for 15 - 25 mph winds sunday. No thanks 

Yet more heartbreaking news,#22 ..#1 in our hearts, Jimmy Smith has retired his oft injured self. BOL ole boy. 

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Make decent money ,wife as well....thanks for being yourself....

Zebras cant change their stripes ,you cant either...

Just piling on with the bad news, #5 Blue Collar Blake Bortles has hung up the cleats. Enjoy your single season franchise records for passing yardage, completions, and TDs. They're all going to be broken this year.