For any "situational" capper, this game is a must-play on the Falcons.
While this won't be one of my larger wagers this week, I will most likely be on ATL
As a TV type mentioned on the radio today, this is the Falcons Super Bowl. "They have nothing left to play for after tonite." I have New Orleans as a 15 point favorite in this game, and that factors in the home field, motivation, divisional dog, etc. I'm playing opposite and have happily grabbed the Saints at -9.5. The FireMikeSmith.com bandwagon will be in full force in Atlanta tomorrow I believe. Best of luck, old friend.
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Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:
For any "situational" capper, this game is a must-play on the Falcons.
While this won't be one of my larger wagers this week, I will most likely be on ATL
As a TV type mentioned on the radio today, this is the Falcons Super Bowl. "They have nothing left to play for after tonite." I have New Orleans as a 15 point favorite in this game, and that factors in the home field, motivation, divisional dog, etc. I'm playing opposite and have happily grabbed the Saints at -9.5. The FireMikeSmith.com bandwagon will be in full force in Atlanta tomorrow I believe. Best of luck, old friend.
not sure how much time i have today but hopefully i'll get it finished before the weekend.
NO @ Atl +10 we've been saying the last couple of weeks that Atl was still getting too much respect in the lines. they were only +6 vs. seattle and got blown out and then were basically even on the road last week against a clearly better team. if only we bet against them. and i think the same is true this week. i think 10 is too low. that being said, i'd be tempted to take Atl if i ever bet these thursday games. again, on paper, i see this as a 12 - 13 point spread. but, the situation isn't great for NO. if Atl is ever going to play hard again, you have to figure it is this one. the saints clearly aren't the same team on the road. they haven't been terrible on the road but it's another thing to ask them to cover a double digit spread which they haven't done all season on the road.
NO is also coming off a very tough game against SF and have their toughest game of the season on the road next week. i think NO is more than 10 points better here but it is not a good situation to be betting them on the road on a short week.
If i can get 10 i'll take it and like my chances.
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
YTD 25-23
not sure how much time i have today but hopefully i'll get it finished before the weekend.
NO @ Atl +10 we've been saying the last couple of weeks that Atl was still getting too much respect in the lines. they were only +6 vs. seattle and got blown out and then were basically even on the road last week against a clearly better team. if only we bet against them. and i think the same is true this week. i think 10 is too low. that being said, i'd be tempted to take Atl if i ever bet these thursday games. again, on paper, i see this as a 12 - 13 point spread. but, the situation isn't great for NO. if Atl is ever going to play hard again, you have to figure it is this one. the saints clearly aren't the same team on the road. they haven't been terrible on the road but it's another thing to ask them to cover a double digit spread which they haven't done all season on the road.
NO is also coming off a very tough game against SF and have their toughest game of the season on the road next week. i think NO is more than 10 points better here but it is not a good situation to be betting them on the road on a short week.
Car @ Miami +4.5 Carolina continues to be one of our favorite teams ATS as they were vastly underrated to start the season and now are properly rated but continue to play well. the defense is solid every week and newton makes some big plays and fewer bad plays. last week's win was huge as NE ran well and brady played pretty well and they managed to close it out.
pretty big step down in competition here. the only thing you have to worry about is a letdown here. Carolins can't be letdown proof and they are coming off three huge wins (Atl counts because it's been a while since they were in a position to dominate them). on the road in miami seems like a pretty good place for a letdown. plus, miami has been pretty good at home.
i'd have a hard time betting against Carolina right now. i don't like Miami much. but like the saints, this doesn't seem to be a good spot for carolina.
Pitt @ Clev -1 Pitt won two in a row and i would have thought they'd get the symbolic -2 spread here. should that tell us that Pitt gets back in the losing column here? Clev was a mess against Cincy last week (how do you throw Campbell 50+ times). i didn't watch it but that sounds like the kind of horrible coaching that cost Clev the win against miami in week 1. i'm going to trust what i see here. Clev- better defense and good at home vs. Pitt - bad running game, bad rushing defense, not good on the road. definitely lean to Clev.
Chc @ Stl -1 interesting line. Chc has been pretty good since cutler got hurt and they are dogs on the road to Stl who can be good but frequently just doesn't show up? are people putting too much emphasis on that beatdown against Indy? that was a nice win but it's week 12 and they really only have one of those so i think it's safe to assume that was just one of those games where one team has it and the other doesn't.
i guess i can make a case for Stl. they are playing better now that they have a better running game and giving the ball to stacy more. they have been better at home and don't have any bad home losses. i don't trust Chc's run defense at all and if Stl gets the run game going, they should be in a position to win. this one needs to be looked into more.
NYJ @ Blt -4 like the shrimps here. tough loss last week and they haven't had a strong win in a while but i think the jets are getting too much respect. and this looks like a good spot for Blt who has had a tough stretch against good teams and road games. this is probably their easiest matchup since week 3 against houston.
the jets were a mess last week as they often are on the road. smith was terrible. not sure he'll be able to bounce back in Blt. not an easy thing for a rookie to do. i would expect the jets will run the ball more this week to take pressure off smith. ivory had a good average last week. if Blt can anticipate that and slow down the jets running game, this looks like a good win for the shrimps.
Tenn @ Oak -1 not going to reiterate what i wrote after tenn blew that game last week against Indy but it was the classic case of a coach being too dumb to adjust and sticking too long with his defensive gameplan. Indy adjusted, killed Tenn with the short routes and crossing patterns and they moved the ball at will to get the lead. of course, Tenn also gave up on the run with the lead although CJ was having a great first half. idiot coaching 101.
so that scares me. but, i think Tenn is a decent play here. i'm not a big fan of Oakland and haven't been all year. we've had some success betting against them on short spreads. this looks like another game where the better team just needs to win.
apparently, mcgloin had a great game last week and everyone is high on him. i think i remember the same thing with pryor a couple of weeks ago. but i'm not sold on this team at all. Tenn has actually been a little better on the road than at home. i could see a possible play here.
Indy @ AZ -1 AZ has also been a team we liked to bet but they clearly aren't underrated anymore. i'm sure a lot of people will get excited by that one point spread and jump on Indy at first glance. i may as well. but keep in mind AZ has only one home loss, to seattle, and has beaten some good teams at AZ. other than playing Jax there's probably an argument that AZ has the toughest schedule in the league this season yet they are 6-4.
Indy has had it pretty tough too and they are one game better. indy also has some nice road wins.
so the question is, who is more "for real" i'd tend to say indy. i really like their coaching this season and while luck has been pretty average at times, he's also been very good in those same games when it counts, with the exception of the SD game.
this may be one to just watch.
Rams & Shrimps solid
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
Car @ Miami +4.5 Carolina continues to be one of our favorite teams ATS as they were vastly underrated to start the season and now are properly rated but continue to play well. the defense is solid every week and newton makes some big plays and fewer bad plays. last week's win was huge as NE ran well and brady played pretty well and they managed to close it out.
pretty big step down in competition here. the only thing you have to worry about is a letdown here. Carolins can't be letdown proof and they are coming off three huge wins (Atl counts because it's been a while since they were in a position to dominate them). on the road in miami seems like a pretty good place for a letdown. plus, miami has been pretty good at home.
i'd have a hard time betting against Carolina right now. i don't like Miami much. but like the saints, this doesn't seem to be a good spot for carolina.
Pitt @ Clev -1 Pitt won two in a row and i would have thought they'd get the symbolic -2 spread here. should that tell us that Pitt gets back in the losing column here? Clev was a mess against Cincy last week (how do you throw Campbell 50+ times). i didn't watch it but that sounds like the kind of horrible coaching that cost Clev the win against miami in week 1. i'm going to trust what i see here. Clev- better defense and good at home vs. Pitt - bad running game, bad rushing defense, not good on the road. definitely lean to Clev.
Chc @ Stl -1 interesting line. Chc has been pretty good since cutler got hurt and they are dogs on the road to Stl who can be good but frequently just doesn't show up? are people putting too much emphasis on that beatdown against Indy? that was a nice win but it's week 12 and they really only have one of those so i think it's safe to assume that was just one of those games where one team has it and the other doesn't.
i guess i can make a case for Stl. they are playing better now that they have a better running game and giving the ball to stacy more. they have been better at home and don't have any bad home losses. i don't trust Chc's run defense at all and if Stl gets the run game going, they should be in a position to win. this one needs to be looked into more.
NYJ @ Blt -4 like the shrimps here. tough loss last week and they haven't had a strong win in a while but i think the jets are getting too much respect. and this looks like a good spot for Blt who has had a tough stretch against good teams and road games. this is probably their easiest matchup since week 3 against houston.
the jets were a mess last week as they often are on the road. smith was terrible. not sure he'll be able to bounce back in Blt. not an easy thing for a rookie to do. i would expect the jets will run the ball more this week to take pressure off smith. ivory had a good average last week. if Blt can anticipate that and slow down the jets running game, this looks like a good win for the shrimps.
Tenn @ Oak -1 not going to reiterate what i wrote after tenn blew that game last week against Indy but it was the classic case of a coach being too dumb to adjust and sticking too long with his defensive gameplan. Indy adjusted, killed Tenn with the short routes and crossing patterns and they moved the ball at will to get the lead. of course, Tenn also gave up on the run with the lead although CJ was having a great first half. idiot coaching 101.
so that scares me. but, i think Tenn is a decent play here. i'm not a big fan of Oakland and haven't been all year. we've had some success betting against them on short spreads. this looks like another game where the better team just needs to win.
apparently, mcgloin had a great game last week and everyone is high on him. i think i remember the same thing with pryor a couple of weeks ago. but i'm not sold on this team at all. Tenn has actually been a little better on the road than at home. i could see a possible play here.
Indy @ AZ -1 AZ has also been a team we liked to bet but they clearly aren't underrated anymore. i'm sure a lot of people will get excited by that one point spread and jump on Indy at first glance. i may as well. but keep in mind AZ has only one home loss, to seattle, and has beaten some good teams at AZ. other than playing Jax there's probably an argument that AZ has the toughest schedule in the league this season yet they are 6-4.
Indy has had it pretty tough too and they are one game better. indy also has some nice road wins.
so the question is, who is more "for real" i'd tend to say indy. i really like their coaching this season and while luck has been pretty average at times, he's also been very good in those same games when it counts, with the exception of the SD game.
HJS, after the first four weeks, i become a partial situational handicapper, partial pull picks out of my behind handicapper. i'll be looking for a second consecutive play of the year against the jets this week from HJS.
captain, no, they shouldn't. i may drive down for that one for my (sometimes) annual trip to gainesville. i haven't bet on the florida games much. if i go, i'll be needing a play. should i go ahead and lock in your Ga Southern lock right now then?
shrimpo, truck, davidN
I'm guessing it's a little late in the year for shrooms but if you do end up in Gainesville..well
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
HJS, after the first four weeks, i become a partial situational handicapper, partial pull picks out of my behind handicapper. i'll be looking for a second consecutive play of the year against the jets this week from HJS.
captain, no, they shouldn't. i may drive down for that one for my (sometimes) annual trip to gainesville. i haven't bet on the florida games much. if i go, i'll be needing a play. should i go ahead and lock in your Ga Southern lock right now then?
shrimpo, truck, davidN
I'm guessing it's a little late in the year for shrooms but if you do end up in Gainesville..well
I'm guessing it's a little late in the year for shrooms but if you do end up in Gainesville..well
shrooms are good year round in gainesville if i remember correctly. i'll have the kids with me though. i think they are still too young for that kind of thing. maybe next year.
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Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:
I'm guessing it's a little late in the year for shrooms but if you do end up in Gainesville..well
shrooms are good year round in gainesville if i remember correctly. i'll have the kids with me though. i think they are still too young for that kind of thing. maybe next year.
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