not sure how much time i have today but hopefully i'll get it finished before the weekend.
NO @ Atl +10 we've been saying the last couple of weeks that Atl was still getting too much respect in the lines. they were only +6 vs. seattle and got blown out and then were basically even on the road last week against a clearly better team. if only we bet against them. and i think the same is true this week. i think 10 is too low. that being said, i'd be tempted to take Atl if i ever bet these thursday games. again, on paper, i see this as a 12 - 13 point spread. but, the situation isn't great for NO. if Atl is ever going to play hard again, you have to figure it is this one. the saints clearly aren't the same team on the road. they haven't been terrible on the road but it's another thing to ask them to cover a double digit spread which they haven't done all season on the road.
NO is also coming off a very tough game against SF and have their toughest game of the season on the road next week. i think NO is more than 10 points better here but it is not a good situation to be betting them on the road on a short week.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD 25-23
not sure how much time i have today but hopefully i'll get it finished before the weekend.
NO @ Atl +10 we've been saying the last couple of weeks that Atl was still getting too much respect in the lines. they were only +6 vs. seattle and got blown out and then were basically even on the road last week against a clearly better team. if only we bet against them. and i think the same is true this week. i think 10 is too low. that being said, i'd be tempted to take Atl if i ever bet these thursday games. again, on paper, i see this as a 12 - 13 point spread. but, the situation isn't great for NO. if Atl is ever going to play hard again, you have to figure it is this one. the saints clearly aren't the same team on the road. they haven't been terrible on the road but it's another thing to ask them to cover a double digit spread which they haven't done all season on the road.
NO is also coming off a very tough game against SF and have their toughest game of the season on the road next week. i think NO is more than 10 points better here but it is not a good situation to be betting them on the road on a short week.
TB @ Det -9.5 i'm not sure what i'm seeing with this line. we've been pretty high on TB the last couple of weeks, in the newsletter at least, not because we think they re all that great but they are certainly better than their record and what bettors are giving them credit for. i think if i ranked all of the teams, i'd find 6-7 who are worse than TB. glennon seems to be good enough and is getting better and they seem to put any RB in the backfield and he can have a good game. maybe it's because their last two wins were at home and they haven't won on the road yet but the last three weeks don't seem to justify this line at all.
i also like Detroit a little better than most but they haven't been anything special at home. i don't see what it is about their defense that makes people want to play them here at 9.5. might play TB with what looks like an inflated line for some reason.
Minn @ GB -4.5 we got suckered into GB last week and they never really had much of a chance. i think i underestimated the impact of rodgers. not that he's the best QB in the league; we've said that for a couple of years now. but how GB's other flaws would be so exposed without rodgers. when rodgers is in the game, you tend to forget how bad their OL is and how their running game isn't any good and how their receivers aren't as good as they used to be. with wallace or tolzein, that shows much more.
so here they are 4.5 point favorites over Minn who can't figure out who they want at QB for more than a week at a time. this is probably the GB gets a win with the backup but that's a lot of points given what GB has done the last two weeks.
SD @ KC +4 we said KC would probably get exposed at Denver last week. Denver got the cover but i think we were wrong. no shame in what KC did in that one. they hung in there and slowed down denver's offense and easily could have covered that one.
SD is a team where we just didn't understand how they would get the 8+ wins needed to be their season win total but they've been better than expected. however, it looks like they are reverting to form having lost 3 in a row and haven't beaten a real NFL team since Oct 14. i'm sure a lot of people will be playing the KC bounceback angle. wouldn't surprise me at all if KC is a little hungover after that one and loses here. manning wasn't perfect but he did have 300+ yards and no Int's. rivers actually has a better completion percentage and is right up there with manning in other categories.
i may not play this one. KC hasn't lost yet so we don't know how they will respond after a loss. also, with the loss to denver, you could argue that KC doesn't have any really good wins. but, i don't like SD much either so i'm a little biased against both teams.
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TB @ Det -9.5 i'm not sure what i'm seeing with this line. we've been pretty high on TB the last couple of weeks, in the newsletter at least, not because we think they re all that great but they are certainly better than their record and what bettors are giving them credit for. i think if i ranked all of the teams, i'd find 6-7 who are worse than TB. glennon seems to be good enough and is getting better and they seem to put any RB in the backfield and he can have a good game. maybe it's because their last two wins were at home and they haven't won on the road yet but the last three weeks don't seem to justify this line at all.
i also like Detroit a little better than most but they haven't been anything special at home. i don't see what it is about their defense that makes people want to play them here at 9.5. might play TB with what looks like an inflated line for some reason.
Minn @ GB -4.5 we got suckered into GB last week and they never really had much of a chance. i think i underestimated the impact of rodgers. not that he's the best QB in the league; we've said that for a couple of years now. but how GB's other flaws would be so exposed without rodgers. when rodgers is in the game, you tend to forget how bad their OL is and how their running game isn't any good and how their receivers aren't as good as they used to be. with wallace or tolzein, that shows much more.
so here they are 4.5 point favorites over Minn who can't figure out who they want at QB for more than a week at a time. this is probably the GB gets a win with the backup but that's a lot of points given what GB has done the last two weeks.
SD @ KC +4 we said KC would probably get exposed at Denver last week. Denver got the cover but i think we were wrong. no shame in what KC did in that one. they hung in there and slowed down denver's offense and easily could have covered that one.
SD is a team where we just didn't understand how they would get the 8+ wins needed to be their season win total but they've been better than expected. however, it looks like they are reverting to form having lost 3 in a row and haven't beaten a real NFL team since Oct 14. i'm sure a lot of people will be playing the KC bounceback angle. wouldn't surprise me at all if KC is a little hungover after that one and loses here. manning wasn't perfect but he did have 300+ yards and no Int's. rivers actually has a better completion percentage and is right up there with manning in other categories.
i may not play this one. KC hasn't lost yet so we don't know how they will respond after a loss. also, with the loss to denver, you could argue that KC doesn't have any really good wins. but, i don't like SD much either so i'm a little biased against both teams.
Car @ Miami +4.5 Carolina continues to be one of our favorite teams ATS as they were vastly underrated to start the season and now are properly rated but continue to play well. the defense is solid every week and newton makes some big plays and fewer bad plays. last week's win was huge as NE ran well and brady played pretty well and they managed to close it out.
pretty big step down in competition here. the only thing you have to worry about is a letdown here. Carolins can't be letdown proof and they are coming off three huge wins (Atl counts because it's been a while since they were in a position to dominate them). on the road in miami seems like a pretty good place for a letdown. plus, miami has been pretty good at home.
i'd have a hard time betting against Carolina right now. i don't like Miami much. but like the saints, this doesn't seem to be a good spot for carolina.
Pitt @ Clev -1 Pitt won two in a row and i would have thought they'd get the symbolic -2 spread here. should that tell us that Pitt gets back in the losing column here? Clev was a mess against Cincy last week (how do you throw Campbell 50+ times). i didn't watch it but that sounds like the kind of horrible coaching that cost Clev the win against miami in week 1. i'm going to trust what i see here. Clev- better defense and good at home vs. Pitt - bad running game, bad rushing defense, not good on the road. definitely lean to Clev.
Chc @ Stl -1 interesting line. Chc has been pretty good since cutler got hurt and they are dogs on the road to Stl who can be good but frequently just doesn't show up? are people putting too much emphasis on that beatdown against Indy? that was a nice win but it's week 12 and they really only have one of those so i think it's safe to assume that was just one of those games where one team has it and the other doesn't.
i guess i can make a case for Stl. they are playing better now that they have a better running game and giving the ball to stacy more. they have been better at home and don't have any bad home losses. i don't trust Chc's run defense at all and if Stl gets the run game going, they should be in a position to win. this one needs to be looked into more.
NYJ @ Blt -4 like the shrimps here. tough loss last week and they haven't had a strong win in a while but i think the jets are getting too much respect. and this looks like a good spot for Blt who has had a tough stretch against good teams and road games. this is probably their easiest matchup since week 3 against houston.
the jets were a mess last week as they often are on the road. smith was terrible. not sure he'll be able to bounce back in Blt. not an easy thing for a rookie to do. i would expect the jets will run the ball more this week to take pressure off smith. ivory had a good average last week. if Blt can anticipate that and slow down the jets running game, this looks like a good win for the shrimps.
Tenn @ Oak -1 not going to reiterate what i wrote after tenn blew that game last week against Indy but it was the classic case of a coach being too dumb to adjust and sticking too long with his defensive gameplan. Indy adjusted, killed Tenn with the short routes and crossing patterns and they moved the ball at will to get the lead. of course, Tenn also gave up on the run with the lead although CJ was having a great first half. idiot coaching 101.
so that scares me. but, i think Tenn is a decent play here. i'm not a big fan of Oakland and haven't been all year. we've had some success betting against them on short spreads. this looks like another game where the better team just needs to win.
apparently, mcgloin had a great game last week and everyone is high on him. i think i remember the same thing with pryor a couple of weeks ago. but i'm not sold on this team at all. Tenn has actually been a little better on the road than at home. i could see a possible play here.
Indy @ AZ -1 AZ has also been a team we liked to bet but they clearly aren't underrated anymore. i'm sure a lot of people will get excited by that one point spread and jump on Indy at first glance. i may as well. but keep in mind AZ has only one home loss, to seattle, and has beaten some good teams at AZ. other than playing Jax there's probably an argument that AZ has the toughest schedule in the league this season yet they are 6-4.
Indy has had it pretty tough too and they are one game better. indy also has some nice road wins.
so the question is, who is more "for real" i'd tend to say indy. i really like their coaching this season and while luck has been pretty average at times, he's also been very good in those same games when it counts, with the exception of the SD game.
this may be one to just watch.
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Car @ Miami +4.5 Carolina continues to be one of our favorite teams ATS as they were vastly underrated to start the season and now are properly rated but continue to play well. the defense is solid every week and newton makes some big plays and fewer bad plays. last week's win was huge as NE ran well and brady played pretty well and they managed to close it out.
pretty big step down in competition here. the only thing you have to worry about is a letdown here. Carolins can't be letdown proof and they are coming off three huge wins (Atl counts because it's been a while since they were in a position to dominate them). on the road in miami seems like a pretty good place for a letdown. plus, miami has been pretty good at home.
i'd have a hard time betting against Carolina right now. i don't like Miami much. but like the saints, this doesn't seem to be a good spot for carolina.
Pitt @ Clev -1 Pitt won two in a row and i would have thought they'd get the symbolic -2 spread here. should that tell us that Pitt gets back in the losing column here? Clev was a mess against Cincy last week (how do you throw Campbell 50+ times). i didn't watch it but that sounds like the kind of horrible coaching that cost Clev the win against miami in week 1. i'm going to trust what i see here. Clev- better defense and good at home vs. Pitt - bad running game, bad rushing defense, not good on the road. definitely lean to Clev.
Chc @ Stl -1 interesting line. Chc has been pretty good since cutler got hurt and they are dogs on the road to Stl who can be good but frequently just doesn't show up? are people putting too much emphasis on that beatdown against Indy? that was a nice win but it's week 12 and they really only have one of those so i think it's safe to assume that was just one of those games where one team has it and the other doesn't.
i guess i can make a case for Stl. they are playing better now that they have a better running game and giving the ball to stacy more. they have been better at home and don't have any bad home losses. i don't trust Chc's run defense at all and if Stl gets the run game going, they should be in a position to win. this one needs to be looked into more.
NYJ @ Blt -4 like the shrimps here. tough loss last week and they haven't had a strong win in a while but i think the jets are getting too much respect. and this looks like a good spot for Blt who has had a tough stretch against good teams and road games. this is probably their easiest matchup since week 3 against houston.
the jets were a mess last week as they often are on the road. smith was terrible. not sure he'll be able to bounce back in Blt. not an easy thing for a rookie to do. i would expect the jets will run the ball more this week to take pressure off smith. ivory had a good average last week. if Blt can anticipate that and slow down the jets running game, this looks like a good win for the shrimps.
Tenn @ Oak -1 not going to reiterate what i wrote after tenn blew that game last week against Indy but it was the classic case of a coach being too dumb to adjust and sticking too long with his defensive gameplan. Indy adjusted, killed Tenn with the short routes and crossing patterns and they moved the ball at will to get the lead. of course, Tenn also gave up on the run with the lead although CJ was having a great first half. idiot coaching 101.
so that scares me. but, i think Tenn is a decent play here. i'm not a big fan of Oakland and haven't been all year. we've had some success betting against them on short spreads. this looks like another game where the better team just needs to win.
apparently, mcgloin had a great game last week and everyone is high on him. i think i remember the same thing with pryor a couple of weeks ago. but i'm not sold on this team at all. Tenn has actually been a little better on the road than at home. i could see a possible play here.
Indy @ AZ -1 AZ has also been a team we liked to bet but they clearly aren't underrated anymore. i'm sure a lot of people will get excited by that one point spread and jump on Indy at first glance. i may as well. but keep in mind AZ has only one home loss, to seattle, and has beaten some good teams at AZ. other than playing Jax there's probably an argument that AZ has the toughest schedule in the league this season yet they are 6-4.
Indy has had it pretty tough too and they are one game better. indy also has some nice road wins.
so the question is, who is more "for real" i'd tend to say indy. i really like their coaching this season and while luck has been pretty average at times, he's also been very good in those same games when it counts, with the exception of the SD game.
Denver @ NE +1 pretty impressive that Carolina was able to beat NE in a game where NE was able to run the ball 25 times and average 4+ yards per carry and brady had a good game for the most part. that tells you Carolina is for real. i think that same gameplan works better against denver and also probably wins this game. of course, i don't know how much i trust NE's defense against Denver. Denver managed 400+ yards against a better defense than NE has.
i'm still thinking about those games Denver played against potentially top offenses like Indy and dallas and think Ne will watch those films and put up a lot of points. i think it's a lot to ask denver to win this one after the big game last week. i'd lean to NE here.
SF @ Wash +5 - made a mistake playing wash last week. shitty defense as usual gave up the early lead and then RG3 gives the game away with a terrible Int when it looked like they had the philly defense on the ropes for a late cover.
the problem for wash is, as we mentioned last week, kaepernick has become like vick, which is always meant in a bad way. hereally struggles against the good defenses that make him read and check to 2nd and 3rd receivers, but he should look pretty good against bad defenses. and wash has a bad defense. SF just had to play Car and @ NO which are two brutal games. now, they get a much weaker team with a terrible defense and a QB with no confidence calling out his coaches. SF brings the better team, better defense, much better coaching and has lost two in a row. one more and they are potentially fighting with Stl for last place in the division. hard to see SF losing this one.
don't really like anything enough to make an early play but will probably find a few things by sunday.
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Denver @ NE +1 pretty impressive that Carolina was able to beat NE in a game where NE was able to run the ball 25 times and average 4+ yards per carry and brady had a good game for the most part. that tells you Carolina is for real. i think that same gameplan works better against denver and also probably wins this game. of course, i don't know how much i trust NE's defense against Denver. Denver managed 400+ yards against a better defense than NE has.
i'm still thinking about those games Denver played against potentially top offenses like Indy and dallas and think Ne will watch those films and put up a lot of points. i think it's a lot to ask denver to win this one after the big game last week. i'd lean to NE here.
SF @ Wash +5 - made a mistake playing wash last week. shitty defense as usual gave up the early lead and then RG3 gives the game away with a terrible Int when it looked like they had the philly defense on the ropes for a late cover.
the problem for wash is, as we mentioned last week, kaepernick has become like vick, which is always meant in a bad way. hereally struggles against the good defenses that make him read and check to 2nd and 3rd receivers, but he should look pretty good against bad defenses. and wash has a bad defense. SF just had to play Car and @ NO which are two brutal games. now, they get a much weaker team with a terrible defense and a QB with no confidence calling out his coaches. SF brings the better team, better defense, much better coaching and has lost two in a row. one more and they are potentially fighting with Stl for last place in the division. hard to see SF losing this one.
don't really like anything enough to make an early play but will probably find a few things by sunday.
not sure how much time i have today but hopefully i'll get it finished before the weekend.
NO @ Atl +10 we've been saying the last couple of weeks that Atl was still getting too much respect in the lines. they were only +6 vs. seattle and got blown out and then were basically even on the road last week against a clearly better team. if only we bet against them. and i think the same is true this week. i think 10 is too low. that being said, i'd be tempted to take Atl if i ever bet these thursday games. again, on paper, i see this as a 12 - 13 point spread. but, the situation isn't great for NO. if Atl is ever going to play hard again, you have to figure it is this one. the saints clearly aren't the same team on the road. they haven't been terrible on the road but it's another thing to ask them to cover a double digit spread which they haven't done all season on the road.
NO is also coming off a very tough game against SF and have their toughest game of the season on the road next week. i think NO is more than 10 points better here but it is not a good situation to be betting them on the road on a short week.
For any "situational" capper, this game is a must-play on the Falcons.
While this won't be one of my larger wagers this week, I will most likely be on ATL
bigreds daddy
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
YTD 25-23
not sure how much time i have today but hopefully i'll get it finished before the weekend.
NO @ Atl +10 we've been saying the last couple of weeks that Atl was still getting too much respect in the lines. they were only +6 vs. seattle and got blown out and then were basically even on the road last week against a clearly better team. if only we bet against them. and i think the same is true this week. i think 10 is too low. that being said, i'd be tempted to take Atl if i ever bet these thursday games. again, on paper, i see this as a 12 - 13 point spread. but, the situation isn't great for NO. if Atl is ever going to play hard again, you have to figure it is this one. the saints clearly aren't the same team on the road. they haven't been terrible on the road but it's another thing to ask them to cover a double digit spread which they haven't done all season on the road.
NO is also coming off a very tough game against SF and have their toughest game of the season on the road next week. i think NO is more than 10 points better here but it is not a good situation to be betting them on the road on a short week.
For any "situational" capper, this game is a must-play on the Falcons.
While this won't be one of my larger wagers this week, I will most likely be on ATL
HJS, after the first four weeks, i become a partial situational handicapper, partial pull picks out of my behind handicapper. i'll be looking for a second consecutive play of the year against the jets this week from HJS.
captain, no, they shouldn't. i may drive down for that one for my (sometimes) annual trip to gainesville. i haven't bet on the florida games much. if i go, i'll be needing a play. should i go ahead and lock in your Ga Southern lock right now then?
shrimpo, truck, davidN
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HJS, after the first four weeks, i become a partial situational handicapper, partial pull picks out of my behind handicapper. i'll be looking for a second consecutive play of the year against the jets this week from HJS.
captain, no, they shouldn't. i may drive down for that one for my (sometimes) annual trip to gainesville. i haven't bet on the florida games much. if i go, i'll be needing a play. should i go ahead and lock in your Ga Southern lock right now then?
TB @ Det -9.5 i'm not sure what i'm seeing with this line. we've been pretty high on TB the last couple of weeks, in the newsletter at least, not because we think they re all that great but they are certainly better than their record and what bettors are giving them credit for. i think if i ranked all of the teams, i'd find 6-7 who are worse than TB. glennon seems to be good enough and is getting better and they seem to put any RB in the backfield and he can have a good game. maybe it's because their last two wins were at home and they haven't won on the road yet but the last three weeks don't seem to justify this line at all.
i also like Detroit a little better than most but they haven't been anything special at home. i don't see what it is about their defense that makes people want to play them here at 9.5. might play TB with what looks like an inflated line for some reason.
I'm going to wait for a +10, if I get it it's worth a small wager on the Bucs
bigreds daddy
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
TB @ Det -9.5 i'm not sure what i'm seeing with this line. we've been pretty high on TB the last couple of weeks, in the newsletter at least, not because we think they re all that great but they are certainly better than their record and what bettors are giving them credit for. i think if i ranked all of the teams, i'd find 6-7 who are worse than TB. glennon seems to be good enough and is getting better and they seem to put any RB in the backfield and he can have a good game. maybe it's because their last two wins were at home and they haven't won on the road yet but the last three weeks don't seem to justify this line at all.
i also like Detroit a little better than most but they haven't been anything special at home. i don't see what it is about their defense that makes people want to play them here at 9.5. might play TB with what looks like an inflated line for some reason.
I'm going to wait for a +10, if I get it it's worth a small wager on the Bucs
SD @ KC +4 we said KC would probably get exposed at Denver last week. Denver got the cover but i think we were wrong. no shame in what KC did in that one. they hung in there and slowed down denver's offense and easily could have covered that one.
SD is a team where we just didn't understand how they would get the 8+ wins needed to be their season win total but they've been better than expected. however, it looks like they are reverting to form having lost 3 in a row and haven't beaten a real NFL team since Oct 14. i'm sure a lot of people will be playing the KC bounceback angle. wouldn't surprise me at all if KC is a little hungover after that one and loses here. manning wasn't perfect but he did have 300+ yards and no Int's. rivers actually has a better completion percentage and is right up there with manning in other categories.
i may not play this one. KC hasn't lost yet so we don't know how they will respond after a loss. also, with the loss to denver, you could argue that KC doesn't have any really good wins. but, i don't like SD much either so i'm a little biased against both teams.
Another "situational" players dream game, as KC finds itself in the Bronco sandwich game.
Cyrax, here is game #1 of the HJ Sports Syndicate 1 million star play.
Chargers +4.5, and ML
bigreds daddy
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
SD @ KC +4 we said KC would probably get exposed at Denver last week. Denver got the cover but i think we were wrong. no shame in what KC did in that one. they hung in there and slowed down denver's offense and easily could have covered that one.
SD is a team where we just didn't understand how they would get the 8+ wins needed to be their season win total but they've been better than expected. however, it looks like they are reverting to form having lost 3 in a row and haven't beaten a real NFL team since Oct 14. i'm sure a lot of people will be playing the KC bounceback angle. wouldn't surprise me at all if KC is a little hungover after that one and loses here. manning wasn't perfect but he did have 300+ yards and no Int's. rivers actually has a better completion percentage and is right up there with manning in other categories.
i may not play this one. KC hasn't lost yet so we don't know how they will respond after a loss. also, with the loss to denver, you could argue that KC doesn't have any really good wins. but, i don't like SD much either so i'm a little biased against both teams.
Another "situational" players dream game, as KC finds itself in the Bronco sandwich game.
Cyrax, here is game #1 of the HJ Sports Syndicate 1 million star play.
Car @ Miami +4.5 Carolina continues to be one of our favorite teams ATS as they were vastly underrated to start the season and now are properly rated but continue to play well. the defense is solid every week and newton makes some big plays and fewer bad plays. last week's win was huge as NE ran well and brady played pretty well and they managed to close it out.
pretty big step down in competition here. the only thing you have to worry about is a letdown here. Carolins can't be letdown proof and they are coming off three huge wins (Atl counts because it's been a while since they were in a position to dominate them). on the road in miami seems like a pretty good place for a letdown. plus, miami has been pretty good at home.
i'd have a hard time betting against Carolina right now. i don't like Miami much. but like the saints, this doesn't seem to be a good spot for carolina.
As noted by the wonderful analysis of CD, this is a letdown game for Carolina. I've been riding the Panthers for a few weeks, but have to jump off the train this week and pound the Fins.
Cyrax ... this is game #2
bigreds daddy
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
Car @ Miami +4.5 Carolina continues to be one of our favorite teams ATS as they were vastly underrated to start the season and now are properly rated but continue to play well. the defense is solid every week and newton makes some big plays and fewer bad plays. last week's win was huge as NE ran well and brady played pretty well and they managed to close it out.
pretty big step down in competition here. the only thing you have to worry about is a letdown here. Carolins can't be letdown proof and they are coming off three huge wins (Atl counts because it's been a while since they were in a position to dominate them). on the road in miami seems like a pretty good place for a letdown. plus, miami has been pretty good at home.
i'd have a hard time betting against Carolina right now. i don't like Miami much. but like the saints, this doesn't seem to be a good spot for carolina.
As noted by the wonderful analysis of CD, this is a letdown game for Carolina. I've been riding the Panthers for a few weeks, but have to jump off the train this week and pound the Fins.
Denver @ NE +1 pretty impressive that Carolina was able to beat NE in a game where NE was able to run the ball 25 times and average 4+ yards per carry and brady had a good game for the most part. that tells you Carolina is for real. i think that same gameplan works better against denver and also probably wins this game. of course, i don't know how much i trust NE's defense against Denver. Denver managed 400+ yards against a better defense than NE has.
i'm still thinking about those games Denver played against potentially top offenses like Indy and dallas and think Ne will watch those films and put up a lot of points. i think it's a lot to ask denver to win this one after the big game last week. i'd lean to NE here.
Just as KC is, Denver is in the KC sandwich game. This game is simply bigger for the Pats than it is for Denver. NE trots just enough defense onto the field to keep Mr Manning honest. Line is 2.5 right now ... I'm waiting and hoping for a +3 so I can pounce
bigreds daddy
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
Denver @ NE +1 pretty impressive that Carolina was able to beat NE in a game where NE was able to run the ball 25 times and average 4+ yards per carry and brady had a good game for the most part. that tells you Carolina is for real. i think that same gameplan works better against denver and also probably wins this game. of course, i don't know how much i trust NE's defense against Denver. Denver managed 400+ yards against a better defense than NE has.
i'm still thinking about those games Denver played against potentially top offenses like Indy and dallas and think Ne will watch those films and put up a lot of points. i think it's a lot to ask denver to win this one after the big game last week. i'd lean to NE here.
Just as KC is, Denver is in the KC sandwich game. This game is simply bigger for the Pats than it is for Denver. NE trots just enough defense onto the field to keep Mr Manning honest. Line is 2.5 right now ... I'm waiting and hoping for a +3 so I can pounce
not sure how much time i have today but hopefully i'll get it finished before the weekend.
NO @ Atl +10 we've been saying the last couple of weeks that Atl was still getting too much respect in the lines. they were only +6 vs. seattle and got blown out and then were basically even on the road last week against a clearly better team. if only we bet against them. and i think the same is true this week. i think 10 is too low. that being said, i'd be tempted to take Atl if i ever bet these thursday games. again, on paper, i see this as a 12 - 13 point spread. but, the situation isn't great for NO. if Atl is ever going to play hard again, you have to figure it is this one. the saints clearly aren't the same team on the road. they haven't been terrible on the road but it's another thing to ask them to cover a double digit spread which they haven't done all season on the road.
NO is also coming off a very tough game against SF and have their toughest game of the season on the road next week. i think NO is more than 10 points better here but it is not a good situation to be betting them on the road on a short week.
I just bought a half point and locked in ATL +10.
Noticed that the line was dropping at a few shops so pulled the trigger now
bigreds daddy
0
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
YTD 25-23
not sure how much time i have today but hopefully i'll get it finished before the weekend.
NO @ Atl +10 we've been saying the last couple of weeks that Atl was still getting too much respect in the lines. they were only +6 vs. seattle and got blown out and then were basically even on the road last week against a clearly better team. if only we bet against them. and i think the same is true this week. i think 10 is too low. that being said, i'd be tempted to take Atl if i ever bet these thursday games. again, on paper, i see this as a 12 - 13 point spread. but, the situation isn't great for NO. if Atl is ever going to play hard again, you have to figure it is this one. the saints clearly aren't the same team on the road. they haven't been terrible on the road but it's another thing to ask them to cover a double digit spread which they haven't done all season on the road.
NO is also coming off a very tough game against SF and have their toughest game of the season on the road next week. i think NO is more than 10 points better here but it is not a good situation to be betting them on the road on a short week.
I just bought a half point and locked in ATL +10.
Noticed that the line was dropping at a few shops so pulled the trigger now
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