ClubDirtSports Playoff Newsletter

2015 Regular Season:  44 - 45

tough season for ClubDirtSports.  winning seasons are not guaranteed but hopefully we'll be back next season and do better.  at a minimum there were a lot of solid picks by everyone, some good discussion and some insight into how we view nfl betting that has produced a lot more wins than losses over the years.

anyway, early subscribers know we put out the first newsletter in the summer and at some point, throw out some future we think are interesting.  at the end of the season, we like to see how they did.  i never bet these mainly because, for the team totals, by the time i feel good about making a call on a team, the odds usually don't make it worthwhile anymore.  as for the other futures, i just don't like to have bets tied up that long.  anyway, here's what we posted in august:


i can see going half a unit each on KC to win the AFC West at +315 and SD at +425

- definitely a good bet on KC at that number but didn't quite get there. 

Carolina winning the NFC South at +225

- damn, great number for an easy win if anyone took it. 

Seattle not winning the NFC West at +255

- another great number for a bet that was essentially won early

Detroit making the playoffs at +160

- not a great number but if johnson didn't fumble at the goalline vs. seattle and the ref didn't fuck up the call plus the hail mary against GB< this would have won.  then again, if my aunt had balls . . .

Half a unit each on AZ (+150) and Stl (+200) to make the playoffs

- pretty good number for AZ for what turned out to be an easy winner.  Stl, on the other hand, 


as for over/unders:

Atl under 9 but it's already up to -185, can't pay that.  anyone get this at a reasonable price?

- i remember really liking this one, but then again, so did most people, hence the -185 that i would never pay for a bet like this. 

Shrimps under 9.5 -136 

-     Shrimps at 9.5  

Detroit over 8 -130

- tough break for anyone who took this one

Pitt under 9 -121

- not a good call and at -121

SF under is too expensive, as expected

- i don't remember what this was but it was obviously out of range, despite hoe easy it may have been

Seattle under 11.5 -133

- if i recall, some people actually jumped on this one.  tough to hit 12+ year after year in a division like that

Stl over 7.5 -131

- close but a tough bet to make at -131

ok, back to the playoffs.  no need to wait until wednesday as it's impossible to get away from the matchups during playoff time.

let's see what the lines are:

KC @ Houston.  KC -3/-130 or -3.5 -105.  first, be very wary going against home dogs in the playoffs.  second, houston's defense is in top form and they've won 3 straight.  but, looking at their wins, those last three were against the three garbage teams in their division.  however, they are 2-3 against playoff quality teams (i include the jets here) so that's pretty good.  i'd be very careful going against the better defensive team at home at 3+ when they've beaten 2 playoff level teams already. 

of course, everyone knows KC is arguably the hottest team in the league.  they are 3-4 against playoff teams but all 4 losses came by week 6 and they played in a much tougher division. 

Pitt @ Cincy.  Pitt is -2.5 -110.  Looks like mccarron will be playing but something to keep an eye on.  with mccarron, they lost to denver but no shame in losing @ Denver by 3.  i won't include the Pitt game since mccarron had to play with no preparation.  otherwise, they were 3-4 against playoff teams but their last win was against Pitt in week 7. 

Pitt probably lost another RB so that could be a problem against a good defense on the road.  Roethlisberger has been throwing a lot of picks against much worse defenses lately.  Pitt is also 3-4 against playoff teams.  however, keep in mind, other than the game where the bengals had to throw mccaron into the mix, Pitt has a total of zero good road wins. 

Seattle @ Minnesota  Seattle is -5.5 -110.  not sure why minnesota wanted to beat GB last night to play seattle but here we are.  minnesota got blown up by seattle a few weeks ago because i think this is a bad matchup for them.  they are 2-4 against playoff teams and i'm not sure how much we should count last night as it appeared that rodgers and GB had no interest in winning that one. 

seattle might be in top form.  i say might because people assume they are yet they lost to the rams two weeks ago.  anyway, they are 3-4 against playoffs teams but they have won 3 straight and covered all three.  lynch should be back.  if they can stop peterson, and i suspect they can, it'll be tough for minnesota.

Gb @ Wash  Wash is -1.5.  people are writing GB off, which is odd given they have the best QB in the playoffs. sure they looked terrible last night but i'm going to disregard that game.  of course they got lit up by AZ the week before and you can't disregard that.  but Wash is no AZ.  before that, they won 3 straight against decent competition.  3 - 4 against playoff teams but only one win in the second half.

people are high on wash but i'm not that impressed.  they played in a horrible division, played only three playoff quality teams and went 0-3 and lost all three by double digits. granted, all three were on the road.  i think they have one good win, which was buffalo three weeks ago, possibly philly in week 4.


so, we have three home dogs and Wash is close.  home teams are going at least 2-2 this week.  which ones are going to win?

of course, everyone knows KC is arguably the hottest team in the league.  they are 3-4 against playoff teams but all 4 losses came by week 6 and they played in a much tougher division.  

people are high on wash but i'm not that impressed.  they played in a horrible division, played only three playoff quality teams and went 0-3 and lost all three by double digits. granted, all three were on the road.  i think they have one good win, which was buffalo three weeks ago, possibly philly in week 4.

Pitt @ Cincy.  Pitt is -2.5 -110.  Looks like mccarron will be playing but something to keep an eye on.  with mccarron, they lost to denver but no shame in losing @ Denver by 3.  i won't include the Pitt game since mccarron had to play with no preparation.  otherwise, they were 3-4 against playoff teams but their last win was against Pitt in week 7.  

seattle might be in top form.  i say might because people assume they are yet they lost to the rams two weeks ago.  anyway, they are 3-4 against playoffs teams but they have won 3 straight and covered all three.  lynch should be back.  if they can stop peterson, and i suspect they can, it'll be tough for minnesota.

I'm of the belief that Alex Smith will have to have an above average Alex Smith type game to insure a victory.Waiting and hoping +4

My 1st thoughts about the Packers were along the same line as yours,but my brain keeps reminding me that no matter how you spread the mustard the Senators are playing good ball and the Pack, not so much.So if the Senators play like they have the Packers are going to have to play MUCH! better on offense.

I see the Pitt/Cincy being similar Cincy's battle with the FIGHTING Shrimps with the difference being Pitt having a better qb and much better receivers.Cincy was likely to stop Pitts running game and now they are probably sure to.The key to Pitts winning will be their ability to stop Cincy's ground game and their run D. has been pretty effective.I just dont like backing on dimensional teams but if i have too this would be the one.

I starting to get the U feeling here.

 

minnesota is well coached but carroll has a great playoff track record.  i assume he'll be able to deal with lynch coming back. 

since it's almost a certainty that a couple of these home teams are going to win, i'm trying to make a case for them.  smith can be questionable but i'd take him over hoyer any day.  of course, KC doesn't have anything watt or clowney (if healthy). 

i'd like to see a reliable source tell me where the bets are this weekend.  i usually don't pay attention but i'm interested to see what the percentages are on washington and KC.

i haven't watched washington much this season.  i didn't bet their games as often as others.  but, i think an argument can be made that this is the worst defense rodgers will have played since the raiders and then before that, a long time.  if you look at GB's schedule, they faced some quality defenses this season.  so, i am scared of the way GB's offense has looked, but if they can get it together, they should be able to get it together here.  also, should rodgers ever be a underdog to cousins?

Ist instinct > Packers

was going to look at that under in Sea/Minn but it's already down a couple of points so probably no play.

however, another way to pay it could be the Minn TT under 17.5.  it probably opened at 18.5, maybe 19, and since so few games end on 19 or 18, you don't lose much value at 17.5  might do it. 

KC -3

HJS 


just saw a couple of stats that probably don't mean much but might be of interest to someone.

Marvin Lewis:  0-6 su and ats in the playaoffs.  he's due. 

Tomlin: 8-1 to the over

i don't really love anything this weekend, which is odd for the first round of the playoffs.  i think i'll play around with a couple of things to keep it interesting.

here's what i'm thinking so far

Cincy +3  i wanted to wait for dalton to be officially declared out to see if it got cheaper,  i doubt it goes to 3.5.  i'll get this at -110 or so.

Seattle ml/Alabama ml - seattle is my favorite at more than 4 side of the week but i'm hesitant to bet a road favorite with a low total that is dropping and the weather is going to be terrible.  i haven't followed alabama much although we did go 2-0 in the bowls, but the sec is good and the acc sucks so how's that for some strong analysis.  i bet no one thought of that.  anyway, you can get this parlay at even right now.

GB +7.5 with Pitt/Cincy over 38.5 

Got to go with Cincy, with the exception of the 2nd half against Cleveland who at that point might have thrown in the towel Pitt did not look the same their last 2 games.I look for Bengals to control clock, hit a few key passes and win comfortably.

If the Senators win it will be their 1st victory over a team that finished the season with a wining record.

Final regular season tally is +55. Yup, not 5500, or even 550, but $55. I suppose I'm grateful for having so much fun for nothing.

Texans 

I think K.C. will get their sacks but unsure id Texicans will do the same with Shifty Alex.