update, i still have no idea what's going on this season. i don't have a good feel for most of the teams and i have no idea how to quantify home field advantage although its value seems to be less than what i'm thinking each week. and now we're getting into the cancellations. betting this season really isn't a great idea, but we'll keep it going for now.
otherwise, here are my updated afc north projections
Pittsburgh 10-6
Cleveland 6-10
Cincinnati 5-10-1
Shrimp 3-13
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD 7-10
update, i still have no idea what's going on this season. i don't have a good feel for most of the teams and i have no idea how to quantify home field advantage although its value seems to be less than what i'm thinking each week. and now we're getting into the cancellations. betting this season really isn't a great idea, but we'll keep it going for now.
otherwise, here are my updated afc north projections
People were laughing at last week's Dolphins/Jaguars TNF matchup, but this Jets/Broncos catastrophe is off the charts.
Informed sources have said that barring an impressive win on Thursday, Gase is as good as gone on Friday. The players have to know this. Will they play to save him or sacrifice him?
Unfortunately, Denver has put a wrench in the plans by naming undrafted QB Brett Rypien as the starter.
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People were laughing at last week's Dolphins/Jaguars TNF matchup, but this Jets/Broncos catastrophe is off the charts.
Informed sources have said that barring an impressive win on Thursday, Gase is as good as gone on Friday. The players have to know this. Will they play to save him or sacrifice him?
Unfortunately, Denver has put a wrench in the plans by naming undrafted QB Brett Rypien as the starter.
Denver @ NYJ +3 another trash thursday night game. but the jets schedule gets back to being tough after this so this is probably their best chance for a win for a while. this is probably the worst team in the league, but i'm not sure why sine it's pretty much the same team that went 7-9 last season. sure the coaching is terrible, but things should even out for them a little bit. denver has massive injuries and a serious problem at qb. hard to consider either team a favorite. i'd guess denver -1.5. wow, denver is 3, although the odds tell me it's probably 2.5 at other places. i'd consider the jets here.
Indy @ Chicago +2.5 i'm sure no one is buying chicago after winning some close games against some pretty dysfunctional teams. and i know foles came in and was great but he's highly inconsistent and there's a reason he's can't stay on one team. he'll be fine here and there, but he cannot be trusted over the course of a season. after a disastrous start, the colts have looked good the last two weeks, but who knows how good that minn win is and the jets are horrible. i think the colts are the better team but this line should be pretty low and chicago at home at a low number is interesting, even though i'm not sure home field means much. i'll guess chicago -1. indy is -2.5. i thought people would be higher on foles but i understand why they aren't. not sure about this one yet.
NO @ Detroit +4.5 i'm sad to say that brees is about done. you can see it in the gameplan. this isn't the same NO offense. i think i read that brees has been throwing the shortest passes from the line of scrimmage in the league. like when jax had to start bortles and they wouldn't let him throw the ball more than 5 yards past the line of scrimmage. brees really misses thomas and he'll help a lot when he comes back but for now, this offense isn't what it was. detroit tough to pin down. played well against chicago until the wheels came off and then they were pretty terrible against GB and got a nice win last week. anyway, i don't trust this NO team as a road favorite. i'll guess 3.5. at 4.5, i'd consider detroit.
AZ @ Carolina +3.5 you knew the first week i came off carolina they would cover. but looking at the stats they got 4 turnovers and still only won by 5 so that's not too impressive. they were outgained quite a bit by a rookie qb in his second start. now they get a much better offense off a bad loss. AZ should score at will here. might be good for a team total over although it should be high. i'm not sure about AZ's defense and i hate taking questionable defenses as road favorites, but i think thos one goes badly for carolina. i'll guess 6. only 3.5. not sure why.
Jax @ Cincy -3.5 last week jax was the opponent against a better team that was hopeful to get its first win and here they are again. cincy is a better team and this is a great chance for them to get their first win. their schedule is pretty tough after this so they know this should be the one. still not sure how jax beat the colts but this is a bad team and cincy should take care of them at home. i'll guess 3. looks like the line will be 3.5/3 which is about right. tough to give 3.5 here but at 3, cincy is worth a look.
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Denver @ NYJ +3 another trash thursday night game. but the jets schedule gets back to being tough after this so this is probably their best chance for a win for a while. this is probably the worst team in the league, but i'm not sure why sine it's pretty much the same team that went 7-9 last season. sure the coaching is terrible, but things should even out for them a little bit. denver has massive injuries and a serious problem at qb. hard to consider either team a favorite. i'd guess denver -1.5. wow, denver is 3, although the odds tell me it's probably 2.5 at other places. i'd consider the jets here.
Indy @ Chicago +2.5 i'm sure no one is buying chicago after winning some close games against some pretty dysfunctional teams. and i know foles came in and was great but he's highly inconsistent and there's a reason he's can't stay on one team. he'll be fine here and there, but he cannot be trusted over the course of a season. after a disastrous start, the colts have looked good the last two weeks, but who knows how good that minn win is and the jets are horrible. i think the colts are the better team but this line should be pretty low and chicago at home at a low number is interesting, even though i'm not sure home field means much. i'll guess chicago -1. indy is -2.5. i thought people would be higher on foles but i understand why they aren't. not sure about this one yet.
NO @ Detroit +4.5 i'm sad to say that brees is about done. you can see it in the gameplan. this isn't the same NO offense. i think i read that brees has been throwing the shortest passes from the line of scrimmage in the league. like when jax had to start bortles and they wouldn't let him throw the ball more than 5 yards past the line of scrimmage. brees really misses thomas and he'll help a lot when he comes back but for now, this offense isn't what it was. detroit tough to pin down. played well against chicago until the wheels came off and then they were pretty terrible against GB and got a nice win last week. anyway, i don't trust this NO team as a road favorite. i'll guess 3.5. at 4.5, i'd consider detroit.
AZ @ Carolina +3.5 you knew the first week i came off carolina they would cover. but looking at the stats they got 4 turnovers and still only won by 5 so that's not too impressive. they were outgained quite a bit by a rookie qb in his second start. now they get a much better offense off a bad loss. AZ should score at will here. might be good for a team total over although it should be high. i'm not sure about AZ's defense and i hate taking questionable defenses as road favorites, but i think thos one goes badly for carolina. i'll guess 6. only 3.5. not sure why.
Jax @ Cincy -3.5 last week jax was the opponent against a better team that was hopeful to get its first win and here they are again. cincy is a better team and this is a great chance for them to get their first win. their schedule is pretty tough after this so they know this should be the one. still not sure how jax beat the colts but this is a bad team and cincy should take care of them at home. i'll guess 3. looks like the line will be 3.5/3 which is about right. tough to give 3.5 here but at 3, cincy is worth a look.
Cleveland @ Dallas -4.5 dallas is kind of like the jets. they should be 0-3 but there's no way they are this bad as they are close to the team they had last season. my guess, and that's pretty much all i'm going with these days, is that dallas looks a lot more like the playoff caliber team many predicted in this one. cleveland has issues and isn't particularly good on defense. dallas needs a strong game if they are going to be a legitimate team, although 6-10 might win the nfc east this season. i'll guess 4. it's 4.5. i think this is a 7+ point win.
Minn @ Houston - who knows about this one. houston might be a decent team who just had a rough schedule so far. or they might just not be any good. minn is a mess so far but has had a tough schedule as well. before the season, i would have said this is a good matchup for minn. their offense does well against questionable defenses and they are better coached. but minnesota's defense has given up a ton of points and houston is slowly getting accustomed to playing without hopkins. basically, i have no idea although i'll stick with my opinion that minn is the better team. i'd probably set the line at even since it's too hard to tell about these teams. it's off the board, i gues sbecause of the corona virus situation.
Seattle @ Miami +6.5 definite letdown spot here although wilson is playing so well, he may be immune to it. but seattle coming off two big wins and now traveling to miami is definitely a rough spot. whereas, miami has been in florida the last couple of weeks and played pretty well in the last two games. i'm sure the line will be a little lower due to the situation, but i have a hard time seeing a seattle blowout. i'll guess 6. it's 6.5. i think that's fair and i'd lean to miami here.
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Cleveland @ Dallas -4.5 dallas is kind of like the jets. they should be 0-3 but there's no way they are this bad as they are close to the team they had last season. my guess, and that's pretty much all i'm going with these days, is that dallas looks a lot more like the playoff caliber team many predicted in this one. cleveland has issues and isn't particularly good on defense. dallas needs a strong game if they are going to be a legitimate team, although 6-10 might win the nfc east this season. i'll guess 4. it's 4.5. i think this is a 7+ point win.
Minn @ Houston - who knows about this one. houston might be a decent team who just had a rough schedule so far. or they might just not be any good. minn is a mess so far but has had a tough schedule as well. before the season, i would have said this is a good matchup for minn. their offense does well against questionable defenses and they are better coached. but minnesota's defense has given up a ton of points and houston is slowly getting accustomed to playing without hopkins. basically, i have no idea although i'll stick with my opinion that minn is the better team. i'd probably set the line at even since it's too hard to tell about these teams. it's off the board, i gues sbecause of the corona virus situation.
Seattle @ Miami +6.5 definite letdown spot here although wilson is playing so well, he may be immune to it. but seattle coming off two big wins and now traveling to miami is definitely a rough spot. whereas, miami has been in florida the last couple of weeks and played pretty well in the last two games. i'm sure the line will be a little lower due to the situation, but i have a hard time seeing a seattle blowout. i'll guess 6. it's 6.5. i think that's fair and i'd lean to miami here.
Chargers @ TB -7.5 still not sold on TB although their defense has been much improved, as predicted. however, they've played some pretty weak or banged up teams the last two weeks. if people are considering them a top team based on that, they'll be overvalued in the next few weeks. don't really know what to make of the chargers. they played KC about as well anyone could (certainly better than the shrimp last night ) but then lost at home to a bad carolina team and could only score 16 against a horrible defense. i guess that's how it goes when you have a rookie qb. and this will be tough because TB has a much better defense than hebert faced the last two weeks. hard to see the chargers winning here but if the line is too high, i'll be going against TB at times. i'll guess 7.5. i think it should be 7 but predicted an extra half a point for due to the brady factor. i'd consider the chargers at 7+.
Pitt @ Tenn - an interesting game but not likely to be played at this point.
Shrimp @ Washington +13 everyone will be looking for the shrimp bounceback, and washington was really bad last week with 5 turnovefs against a defense that shouldn't scare anyone. this really sets up for an inflated line. if chase young is out, that's a problem, but otherwise, washington might have the defensive line to get some stops. who knows what their offense can do but they have scored 27 and 20 this season and that will likely be good enough for the cover. i'll guess 13. 13 it is. tough to play washington after last week but this is usually the spot where i play the underdog.
NYG @ Rams -13 just like washington, no one will want to play NYG after last week and the rams should be a popular pick after two nice wins and a huge comeback against buffalo that could easily have been a win absent a questionable penalty. not sure how they played the 49ers practice squad and lost so badly. but we'll normally play an underdog that everyone hates against a favorite who's probably overrated where the line is too high, as this one should be. i'd say 11. 13 is probably too high unless the giants are just much worse than i think. i don't think the rams should be 13 over anyone.
NE @ KC -7 probably not much chance of a letdown after the big MNF game. seems like their letdown was the week before against the chargers. not sure what happened there. and NE is not the kind of team that other teams overlook. NE looks like they haven't missed anything despite losing brady and some others. if newton keeps playing well, belichik can keep them in the playoffs. i'm not sure anyone can stop KC's offense unless KC just has a bad game like against the chargers. and their defense looks pretty good. i wouldn't give a lot of points to this patriots team because they could be pretty good. also hard to bet against KC when they are on their game like last night. i'll guess 6.5. it's 7. can't really argue with that. NE has the better coach and better defense and that's usually enough for me to take any udnerdog of 7 or more but that KC offense is scary.
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Chargers @ TB -7.5 still not sold on TB although their defense has been much improved, as predicted. however, they've played some pretty weak or banged up teams the last two weeks. if people are considering them a top team based on that, they'll be overvalued in the next few weeks. don't really know what to make of the chargers. they played KC about as well anyone could (certainly better than the shrimp last night ) but then lost at home to a bad carolina team and could only score 16 against a horrible defense. i guess that's how it goes when you have a rookie qb. and this will be tough because TB has a much better defense than hebert faced the last two weeks. hard to see the chargers winning here but if the line is too high, i'll be going against TB at times. i'll guess 7.5. i think it should be 7 but predicted an extra half a point for due to the brady factor. i'd consider the chargers at 7+.
Pitt @ Tenn - an interesting game but not likely to be played at this point.
Shrimp @ Washington +13 everyone will be looking for the shrimp bounceback, and washington was really bad last week with 5 turnovefs against a defense that shouldn't scare anyone. this really sets up for an inflated line. if chase young is out, that's a problem, but otherwise, washington might have the defensive line to get some stops. who knows what their offense can do but they have scored 27 and 20 this season and that will likely be good enough for the cover. i'll guess 13. 13 it is. tough to play washington after last week but this is usually the spot where i play the underdog.
NYG @ Rams -13 just like washington, no one will want to play NYG after last week and the rams should be a popular pick after two nice wins and a huge comeback against buffalo that could easily have been a win absent a questionable penalty. not sure how they played the 49ers practice squad and lost so badly. but we'll normally play an underdog that everyone hates against a favorite who's probably overrated where the line is too high, as this one should be. i'd say 11. 13 is probably too high unless the giants are just much worse than i think. i don't think the rams should be 13 over anyone.
NE @ KC -7 probably not much chance of a letdown after the big MNF game. seems like their letdown was the week before against the chargers. not sure what happened there. and NE is not the kind of team that other teams overlook. NE looks like they haven't missed anything despite losing brady and some others. if newton keeps playing well, belichik can keep them in the playoffs. i'm not sure anyone can stop KC's offense unless KC just has a bad game like against the chargers. and their defense looks pretty good. i wouldn't give a lot of points to this patriots team because they could be pretty good. also hard to bet against KC when they are on their game like last night. i'll guess 6.5. it's 7. can't really argue with that. NE has the better coach and better defense and that's usually enough for me to take any udnerdog of 7 or more but that KC offense is scary.
I cant figure out the Cowboys line myself....Huge public play but opens at a 4 ....A little fucked up and Im waiting on Pinny to post the Patriots line also as I may be on them depending
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I cant figure out the Cowboys line myself....Huge public play but opens at a 4 ....A little fucked up and Im waiting on Pinny to post the Patriots line also as I may be on them depending
Buffalo @ LV +2.5 i couldn't believe what iw as watching with the bills giving up that lead last week and then getting kind of lucky to win. but, allen is still erratic like a rookie so i guess that kind of thing will happen at times until he becomes a more stable qb, if ever. the raiders are getting better but i'm not sure i trust them against a good defense like buffalo has. buffalo has the better coaching and defense and i don't see them having a letdown despite the travel after losing that lead last week. buffalo should win this one. i'll guess buffalo -1.5. it's 2.5 which isn't much different. i certainly wouldn't give more than 3 but would consider buffalo at this line.
Philly @ SF -6.5 obviously philly needs to win this one. the good thing for them is one win and they are right back in the mix. SF should still be in very bad shape although kittle may be back. i don't think philly is that good but this is complete desperation mode against a team tat is fortunate to be at 2-1 because they played both NY teams, although there is no room for error in their division. a lot of people thought last week was the week for philly, but they were overpriced. they should just have to keep it close to cover here and if there's any hope for this team, i think they will. i'll guess -3.5. wow, 6.5 is a big spread. i get that philly doesn't deserve any respect but i just don't see how this SF team can keep it going with these injuries. sure, they are 2-0 with those injuries but against arguably the two worst teams in the league.
Atl @ GB -7.5 i think we can all agree that atlanta is the most dysfunctional team in the league. not a terrible team as they have a good offense, but something is very wrong with this team and coaching staff. it has to even out at some point. GB is a big surprise to me. i thought minn would be the better team and while minn can't win a game GB is rolling everyone. i think that evens out as well. will it be in this game? maybe. we should definietly be seeing a much higher line than whatever the preseason line would have had for this one. i think preseason, i'd have this at 3-4. now, it's probably at least 7. yep, 7.5. i understand the line. hard to take atlanta but that's probably what i'd do if anything. that offense is too good to be getting 7+ and i just don't see GB scoring 40 points every game after watching this offense the last couple of years.
i think that's everyone. i'll check some other books. kind of tempted by the giants and eagles.
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Buffalo @ LV +2.5 i couldn't believe what iw as watching with the bills giving up that lead last week and then getting kind of lucky to win. but, allen is still erratic like a rookie so i guess that kind of thing will happen at times until he becomes a more stable qb, if ever. the raiders are getting better but i'm not sure i trust them against a good defense like buffalo has. buffalo has the better coaching and defense and i don't see them having a letdown despite the travel after losing that lead last week. buffalo should win this one. i'll guess buffalo -1.5. it's 2.5 which isn't much different. i certainly wouldn't give more than 3 but would consider buffalo at this line.
Philly @ SF -6.5 obviously philly needs to win this one. the good thing for them is one win and they are right back in the mix. SF should still be in very bad shape although kittle may be back. i don't think philly is that good but this is complete desperation mode against a team tat is fortunate to be at 2-1 because they played both NY teams, although there is no room for error in their division. a lot of people thought last week was the week for philly, but they were overpriced. they should just have to keep it close to cover here and if there's any hope for this team, i think they will. i'll guess -3.5. wow, 6.5 is a big spread. i get that philly doesn't deserve any respect but i just don't see how this SF team can keep it going with these injuries. sure, they are 2-0 with those injuries but against arguably the two worst teams in the league.
Atl @ GB -7.5 i think we can all agree that atlanta is the most dysfunctional team in the league. not a terrible team as they have a good offense, but something is very wrong with this team and coaching staff. it has to even out at some point. GB is a big surprise to me. i thought minn would be the better team and while minn can't win a game GB is rolling everyone. i think that evens out as well. will it be in this game? maybe. we should definietly be seeing a much higher line than whatever the preseason line would have had for this one. i think preseason, i'd have this at 3-4. now, it's probably at least 7. yep, 7.5. i understand the line. hard to take atlanta but that's probably what i'd do if anything. that offense is too good to be getting 7+ and i just don't see GB scoring 40 points every game after watching this offense the last couple of years.
i think that's everyone. i'll check some other books. kind of tempted by the giants and eagles.
The Titans and Steelers may or may not play on Sunday. The league is now saying all systems are go pending C19 testing on Friday. Waiting game, nothing else. What's most interesting in this game is that both teams are 3-0 and their opponents are a combined 1-17.
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The Titans and Steelers may or may not play on Sunday. The league is now saying all systems are go pending C19 testing on Friday. Waiting game, nothing else. What's most interesting in this game is that both teams are 3-0 and their opponents are a combined 1-17.
How easily everybody forgets how the Giants were a live dog last week at only +3.5 vs. a depleted 49ers squad. SF as you said is really in no better shape than they were a week ago unless Kittle plays. Even still, the Eagles can win this one outright.
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
some places have philly +7.
How easily everybody forgets how the Giants were a live dog last week at only +3.5 vs. a depleted 49ers squad. SF as you said is really in no better shape than they were a week ago unless Kittle plays. Even still, the Eagles can win this one outright.
looks like some places have lines on these games pinnacle has off.
I'm seeing 3.5 - 4 for minnesota, which tempts me to take houston just because i see those teams as even right now. and -1 - 2.5 for pittsburgh which is probably a game to stay away from/
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looks like some places have lines on these games pinnacle has off.
I'm seeing 3.5 - 4 for minnesota, which tempts me to take houston just because i see those teams as even right now. and -1 - 2.5 for pittsburgh which is probably a game to stay away from/
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt: some places have philly +7. How easily everybody forgets how the Giants were a live dog last week at only +3.5 vs. a depleted 49ers squad. SF as you said is really in no better shape than they were a week ago unless Kittle plays. Even still, the Eagles can win this one outright.
we can't ignore the first three weeks but a lot of people had philly winning or at least right there with dallas to win their division while the nfc west was wide open yet philly is now +7 against a team with crazy injuries? i don't get it, but i've been saying that a lot so far this season.
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Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt: some places have philly +7. How easily everybody forgets how the Giants were a live dog last week at only +3.5 vs. a depleted 49ers squad. SF as you said is really in no better shape than they were a week ago unless Kittle plays. Even still, the Eagles can win this one outright.
we can't ignore the first three weeks but a lot of people had philly winning or at least right there with dallas to win their division while the nfc west was wide open yet philly is now +7 against a team with crazy injuries? i don't get it, but i've been saying that a lot so far this season.
The Titans and Vikings won't be together as a team till Saturday. Remote practices...what does that even mean? E- learning the play book for a week? You gotta be kidding me.
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The Titans and Vikings won't be together as a team till Saturday. Remote practices...what does that even mean? E- learning the play book for a week? You gotta be kidding me.
As for why the Chargers always play KC tight...they use a cover 3 with man underneath. It gives Mahomes fits for whatever reason, and I'm surprised that more teams don't try it.
God help me if I bet the Falcons this week.
All I got so far is Washington +13 that I bet a few days ago, and have little confidence with that ticket.
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As for why the Chargers always play KC tight...they use a cover 3 with man underneath. It gives Mahomes fits for whatever reason, and I'm surprised that more teams don't try it.
God help me if I bet the Falcons this week.
All I got so far is Washington +13 that I bet a few days ago, and have little confidence with that ticket.
The Titans and Vikings won't be together as a team till Saturday. Remote practices...what does that even mean? E- learning the play book for a week? You gotta be kidding me.
be hard for me to play either of those 2 games, whacko man.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
The Titans and Vikings won't be together as a team till Saturday. Remote practices...what does that even mean? E- learning the play book for a week? You gotta be kidding me.
be hard for me to play either of those 2 games, whacko man.
As for why the Chargers always play KC tight...they use a cover 3 with man underneath. It gives Mahomes fits for whatever reason, and I'm surprised that more teams don't try it. God help me if I bet the Falcons this week. All I got so far is Washington +13 that I bet a few days ago, and have little confidence with that ticket.
Same defense that Seattle prefers, and dare I even say it, Jacksonville and Atlanta. It's a bend don't break style that produces very few turnovers and is highly dependent on good players buying into a zone based system and having a strong pass rush from just 4 linemen.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
As for why the Chargers always play KC tight...they use a cover 3 with man underneath. It gives Mahomes fits for whatever reason, and I'm surprised that more teams don't try it. God help me if I bet the Falcons this week. All I got so far is Washington +13 that I bet a few days ago, and have little confidence with that ticket.
Same defense that Seattle prefers, and dare I even say it, Jacksonville and Atlanta. It's a bend don't break style that produces very few turnovers and is highly dependent on good players buying into a zone based system and having a strong pass rush from just 4 linemen.
As for why the Chargers always play KC tight...they use a cover 3 with man underneath. It gives Mahomes fits for whatever reason, and I'm surprised that more teams don't try it. God help me if I bet the Falcons this week. All I got so far is Washington +13 that I bet a few days ago, and have little confidence with that ticket.
washington should win that one by 13
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
As for why the Chargers always play KC tight...they use a cover 3 with man underneath. It gives Mahomes fits for whatever reason, and I'm surprised that more teams don't try it. God help me if I bet the Falcons this week. All I got so far is Washington +13 that I bet a few days ago, and have little confidence with that ticket.
The Titans and Steelers may or may not play on Sunday. The league is now saying all systems are go pending C19 testing on Friday. Waiting game, nothing else. What's most interesting in this game is that both teams are 3-0 and their opponents are a combined 1-17.
Officially postponed until probably Monday.
I'm still bullish on the Lions and if Fat Matt has any Belichick left in him at all, he'll know how to cripple that Saints offense. That's a big if, though. Lots of tickets on the Saints but the line is going down.
I'm still oddly fascinated with this Thursday night shitfest. I shouldn't bet it, but I feel like I need to just to be a part of it. Historically bad.
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Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
The Titans and Steelers may or may not play on Sunday. The league is now saying all systems are go pending C19 testing on Friday. Waiting game, nothing else. What's most interesting in this game is that both teams are 3-0 and their opponents are a combined 1-17.
Officially postponed until probably Monday.
I'm still bullish on the Lions and if Fat Matt has any Belichick left in him at all, he'll know how to cripple that Saints offense. That's a big if, though. Lots of tickets on the Saints but the line is going down.
I'm still oddly fascinated with this Thursday night shitfest. I shouldn't bet it, but I feel like I need to just to be a part of it. Historically bad.
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) but then lost at home to a bad carolina team and could only score 16 against a horrible defense. i guess that's how it goes when you have a rookie qb. and this will be tough because TB has a much better defense than hebert faced the last two weeks. hard to see the chargers winning here but if the line is too high, i'll be going against TB at times. i'll guess 7.5. i think it should be 7 but predicted an extra half a point for due to the brady factor. i'd consider the chargers at 7+.
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