ClubDirtSports Week Sixteen

YTD 38-39

College Bowls: 1-0 

Tennessee -8 pending


i suppose we'll keep doing what we've been doing the last couple of weeks.  we're not too superstitious here at ClubDirtSports but it is quicker and simpler and i think there is too much confirmation bias going on with the longer writeups.  these are supposed to be fairly short, initial reactions to the lines, and that's what they've been the last couple of weeks.

actually had a hard time with the matchups last week.  ultimately, i decided to go with a theme of trying to find the better teams at reasonable numbers.  usually, we are looking to find underdogs at inflated numbers, but that's been a challenge this season, as you can see from our record. 

fortunately, we picked the right week as almost all of the better teams won and covered (except carolina and the giants needed a miracle to cover that one).  after a week like that, i suspect this week people will be assuming some teams have quit but we know it isn't that simple.  so, hopefully, back to looking for underdogs. 

one exception to me having a hard time deciding on games was cincinnati.  that was clearly the better team but also fell perfectly into our favorite backup qb angle.  very surprised to see that open at 4.5.  it's funny, in any given week, when dalton fucks up, there will be multiple threads about how much he sucks.  yet, he's out one week and cincy, who is much better than SF no matter who is at QB, is only 4.5 at one of the worst teams in the league when cincy is fighting for payoff position?   but, SF had a few chances for a backdoor cover at the end.  so, it was an easy game to pick, but like most of these, it wasn't an easy bet to win.

anyway, on to this week.  let's see if the lines are inflated anywhere.

SD @ Oak  I said 5, it's 5.5.  no difference.  oakland has come back down to earth and is starting to look like the usual oakland we see.  SD has somehow played defense the last two weeks.  ia haven't watched SD in either game although we bet them two weeks ago.  anyone know how this horrible team is keeping the score down?  as usual, i doubt i'll bet this, especially since i think the line is right.


Wash @ Philly.  i said 2 and it's 3.  so, since 3 is a critical number, that is something to look at, if  can remember there is a saturday game this week.  philly is so bad in so many ways.  but, because this division sucks, this game means something.  i have wash as being overrated although being +3 here is a little surprising given the way these teams are playing. i suspect people will assume philly plays well for some reason but this team has serious issues.  i wouldn't bet them as favorites. 

NYG @ Minn i said 4 and it's 5.  i never worry too much about that difference.  the giants had a nice comeback last week but i still think they rely too much on manning.  they did run the ball well but that isn't the norm.  and their defense is garbage.  minn has, at times, played a very nice game of running peterson and limiting bridegwater and playing strong defense.  if they can do that, they can beat a lot of teams.  they should be able to do it here.


Chicago @ TB -3  the line is right to me.  two garbage teams out of the race.  Tb has more talent and more promise in my opinion.  i see them as the more likely candidate to play hard. 

Carolina @ Atl  first one that is way off.  i said -4 and it's 7.  granted, i always underrate carolina and they keep winning.  Atl did win last week but i know they are still pretty bad.  they can't run and ryan has been average at best and the defense isn't very good.  but, 7 is a lot in the division.  carolina really needs home field advantage to get far in the playoffs but they should get it either way. 

one other thing about carolina.  they are supposed to have this great defense, and need to if they are going anywhere, but they've given up 38 and 35 in two of the last three weeks.  that could be a problem.

Dallas @ Buffalo second one where i'm way off.  i said 3 and it's 6.  can anyone tell me how in the world buffalo ran for 240 yards, won the TO battle and lost to Wash last week?  that's not easy to do.

buffalo has talent but they have serious problems and need a real coach. and mccoy is hurt, which is important on this team.  dallas is obviously a disaster at QB but no cassel should help.  i think dallas's defense and buffalo's problems make this line too high.

SF @ Detroit third in a row.  i said 7 and it's 10.  detroit actually looked very good on monday, mostly, but they were playing a horrible defense and brees was hurt.  SF is obviously terrible but they still try hard.  basically, this is the kind of thing i'm talking about.  the line is too high.  SF will come to play, as bad as they are.  detroit is not good enough to be double digit favorites this season.

Clev @ KC finally got a big spread right.  i said 11 and it's 11.5.  KC is one game out of first and denver has a tough one this week so KC should keep rolling along.  Clev has all sorts of problems.  not sure i'd take KC as double digit favorites, but i can certainly see why they are.

Indy @ Miami  i said 2 and it's 1.5.  miami embarrassed themselves last week.  no other way to put that.  as bad as they are, this is the second consecutive week they are the better team.  can they actually run the ball and play with some energy and win it?  indy has nothing, but they do give a garbage at least.  hard to say.

NE @ NYJ first time my guess has been higher than a spread above 3.  i said 4.  it's 3.  NE coasted last week and are nearly certain to get home field with miami on the schedule next week.  i wouldn't assume they take it easy this week, but hard to take them as injured as they are as road favorites when it's not a big game for them.  it is, of course, for the jets.  might look at the jets here. 

GB @ AZ i said 3.5 and it's 4.5.  bigger game for GB than AZ.  AZ is a little weaker now without mathieu.  i think this will be a tough matchup for GB the way their offense is struggling.  AZ is the better team on both sides of the ball.  then again, not sure i want to go against rodgers at 4.5 in a game they really want to win.  i'm sure they don't want the division title to come down to the last game against minn who they might play again in the playoffs. 

Stl @ Sea as expected, i'm off.  i said 10.5 and it's 13.5.  i think that's inflated.  Stl isn't very good but they play well in these games and maybe they are better with keenum.  seattle clearly has been better but they have issues at RB, it's not a big game for them and i'm not sold that they are back to their old selves.  i might take the points.

Pitt @ Shrimps  once again.  i said 7 and it's 10.  we all know by now how  the shrimps are, on an overdue 3 game losing streak, but this is a classic example of a team that needs to win playing a team that has been finished for a while so the line is higher than normal.  i never buy into those spreads and often play against them.   

Cincy @ Denver i was thinking 3 but it's 3.5 which is a big difference for a team that relies on its defense.  i really want to take denver here but the line isn't exactly cooperating.  cincy won last week and mccarron was fine but they couldn't run the ball and got 4 turnovers, some earned, some not.  maybe they'll be better this week but it's a much tougher matchup going against the denver defense and if they can't run or don't get help with turnovers and play like they did last week, denver covers this easily.


there should be at least one off the board. 

Houston @ Tenn mariota should be out so it's off.  and of course weeden for houston.  that's an ugly qb matchup.  so, assuming it's weeden vs mettenberger, what the darn do you do with that?  wacth for an inflated line since houston needs this.  i say it should be houston -3.5/4 or so.  any higher and i'll look at tenn.  probably won't be taking weeden on the road, might bet against that regardless.

Jax @ No  assuming brees is out, had to check the roster for their backup since brees never gets hurt.  good God, it's matt flynn.  these teams have the same record, NO is better when they play well but don't do that very often so who knows.  i say the line should be NO -2 with flynn, just because of the home field. 

looking back, games where the line appears off because either one team is still in it and one isn't or one team presumably quit:

Detroit, Seattle, Pitt and possibly Houston. 

Benny would love nothing more than crush Shrimps for past rough treatments and even if not who dahell gonna cover dem recievers.

Chicago @ TB -3  the line is right to me.  two garbage teams out of the race.  Tb has more talent and more promise in my opinion.  i see them as the more likely candidate to play hard.  

Was really liking your boys + 3' then Bree's has to go & f'k things up.

Agree with ya on Philly but geez Washington on the road does not give me the warm fuzzies, i like Philly here

Could Panthers come out a little flat after emotional game in big apple pie, 3rd game outta 4 on the road. Thing is they just got finished hammering Falcons a scant 2 weeks ago. But if this line does not climb and stays at 7, sumptin could be up.

carolina has been flat 2 out of the last 3 weeks and this isn't a great situation.  of course, the other side is that atlanta really sucks.

i'm not up to date.  is brees playing?  if so, i said -2 with flynn so with brees, i'd say 3.5/4 is right.  obviously brees is 100x better than flynn but going above 3 is big for a team that bad and brees is still hurt so i think the line is right.  don't think i'm looking to play the saints as 3+ favorites over anyone. 

your 2015 atlanta falcons  


https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/12/24/tevin-coleman-in-concussion-protocol-after-slipping-in-shower/

SD @ Oak  I said 5, it's 5.5.  no difference.  oakland has come back down to earth and is starting to look like the usual oakland we see.  SD has somehow played defense the last two weeks.  ia haven't watched SD in either game although we bet them two weeks ago.  anyone know how this horrible team is keeping the score down?  as usual, i doubt i'll bet this, especially since i think the line is right.

probably won't be on much tomorrow so merry christmas to everyone who checks in. 



back with some plays later though. 

Merry Christmas to you guys as well 

Merry Christmas CD, all the best to you and your family

cyrax, idle, bws 


pretty much going to just deal with eating and drinking too much the last couple of days and stay away from this game tonight.  back later today or tomorrow with some picks for tomorrow. 

oft times the key to choosing the winner is a simple as who has been playing better and only one with poor vision could take Eagles and lay points here.

I enjoyed that

good effort by the eagles in a must win game last night. 


it's still in-law week and they have me going to the mall right now.  i will try and get my garbage together and post some picks before 1:00. 

If you see Hugh at the Starbucks tell the o.g. ( old guy ) i said howdy

Ok, here's what we have for today

Tampa -3 -120
Baltimore +10.5
Cleveland +12
NYG +7
Miami -1.5

Gentlemen, it's been awhile.

Cd - I'm with you on  Miami   

Hugh - Good to see you back