bad week last week but it actually could have been worse as Atlanta, San Diego and Oakland were the last plays that were eliminated. all losers.
Tenn v. Jax -3 i'm calling for a boycott of this one. the season is almost over. with all of the teams in contention for the playoffs, this is the best they can do? if you are interested in looking at this one, i'd note that there are a lot of injuries. i haven't paid much attention but bortles is hurt but it sounds like he'll play. remember robinson is out. mccluster is out for tennessee and they have a fucked up QB situation. i guess i should be happy to see these teams on thursday night since i don't bet thursdays and won't be tempted by either of these shit teams this week. anyway, no bet for me. no real opinion either. i'll probably watch it though, being an NFL degenerate and all.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD 46 - 33
bad week last week but it actually could have been worse as Atlanta, San Diego and Oakland were the last plays that were eliminated. all losers.
Tenn v. Jax -3 i'm calling for a boycott of this one. the season is almost over. with all of the teams in contention for the playoffs, this is the best they can do? if you are interested in looking at this one, i'd note that there are a lot of injuries. i haven't paid much attention but bortles is hurt but it sounds like he'll play. remember robinson is out. mccluster is out for tennessee and they have a fucked up QB situation. i guess i should be happy to see these teams on thursday night since i don't bet thursdays and won't be tempted by either of these shit teams this week. anyway, no bet for me. no real opinion either. i'll probably watch it though, being an NFL degenerate and all.
SD v SF -1.5 not sure why SF is favored here. they are in free fall mode. they've gone from a top tier organization to a circus. and today ray mcdonald was released, not for committing crimes, but for committing crimes and SF now being out of playoff contention. nice statement by the 49er organization. anyway, SF is injured at RB among other places, has nothing to play for, and has all sorts of internal issues. SD still has a shot at the playoffs and gets an easier opponent after facing probably the two best teams in the conference. i don't know why anyone would take SF in their current state. plus, SF has one less day to prepare for a team that probably just wants to end the season. possible play on SD.
Philly v. Wash +7.5 washington disappointed us last week being unable to stay close with another bad team. while the idea of taking a 7.5 home dog against sanchez is intriguing, i'm not sure how much more washington has in them. philly needs to bounce back after last week. there's going to be one team with a good recod in the NFC that isn't going to the playoffs. that looks like philly for now. they should take care of business against a bad team that has all sorts of problems and hasn't played a respectable game since covering in SF a month ago.
Minnesota v. Miami -7 somewhat of a misguided bet going against NE last week. minnesota covered easily for us though. miami isn't completely out of it so they should play hard in one of the easier games they've had in a while. i'm just not sure they are 7 points better at this point. minnesota has effectively been eliminated for a while but they are well coached and playing better and certainly aren't quitting. not sure about this one for now.
GB v. TB -10.5 wow, huge line. subscribers know we've done well going against GB as road favorites. a little surprised to see this one above 10. like we said two weeks ago when GB was huge favorites over atlanta, this defense isn't so good where i'd feel comfortable giving a lot of points regularly, certainly not on the road. of course, rodgers can blow teams out of the water any time, but if the offense stumbles a little or the defense is just garbage, covering these spreads will be tough. TB sucks, we all know that, but they are better with martin at RB. he did have 6.9 yards/carry last week. if he can help them hold onto the ball for a while, TB might be able to stay within 10.
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back to saturday football as well
SD v SF -1.5 not sure why SF is favored here. they are in free fall mode. they've gone from a top tier organization to a circus. and today ray mcdonald was released, not for committing crimes, but for committing crimes and SF now being out of playoff contention. nice statement by the 49er organization. anyway, SF is injured at RB among other places, has nothing to play for, and has all sorts of internal issues. SD still has a shot at the playoffs and gets an easier opponent after facing probably the two best teams in the conference. i don't know why anyone would take SF in their current state. plus, SF has one less day to prepare for a team that probably just wants to end the season. possible play on SD.
Philly v. Wash +7.5 washington disappointed us last week being unable to stay close with another bad team. while the idea of taking a 7.5 home dog against sanchez is intriguing, i'm not sure how much more washington has in them. philly needs to bounce back after last week. there's going to be one team with a good recod in the NFC that isn't going to the playoffs. that looks like philly for now. they should take care of business against a bad team that has all sorts of problems and hasn't played a respectable game since covering in SF a month ago.
Minnesota v. Miami -7 somewhat of a misguided bet going against NE last week. minnesota covered easily for us though. miami isn't completely out of it so they should play hard in one of the easier games they've had in a while. i'm just not sure they are 7 points better at this point. minnesota has effectively been eliminated for a while but they are well coached and playing better and certainly aren't quitting. not sure about this one for now.
GB v. TB -10.5 wow, huge line. subscribers know we've done well going against GB as road favorites. a little surprised to see this one above 10. like we said two weeks ago when GB was huge favorites over atlanta, this defense isn't so good where i'd feel comfortable giving a lot of points regularly, certainly not on the road. of course, rodgers can blow teams out of the water any time, but if the offense stumbles a little or the defense is just garbage, covering these spreads will be tough. TB sucks, we all know that, but they are better with martin at RB. he did have 6.9 yards/carry last week. if he can help them hold onto the ball for a while, TB might be able to stay within 10.
Detroit @ Chicago +7 what an embarrassment for chicago to be 7 point home dogs to detroit in december. this team is as fucked u as any team in the league. unbettable at this point. fortunately, unlike other unbettable teams that we seem to be a lot, we saw this one coming and have avoided them as big underdogs. slight chance of a play on detroit. we like them this season as subscribers know. we especially like a strong defense that needs to win against a team that has quit on offense. if chicago can't do anything against rob ryan's shitty defense, how will they look against detroit. cutler might not even come out of the locker room.
Atl @ NO -5.5 another sad state of affairs that this is a key game for the division. my initial reaction is similar to what i said about TB/Carolina last week. i can see either team winning this one. not sure one is better than the other at this point. so, taking the points makes more sense at first impression. on the other hand, there is still the NO at home factor. it clearly isn't as strong as it used to be but it worked well for us when GB came to town a few weeks ago.
NE @ NYJ +10.5 can't believe the fuckin jets got a late TD to kill our weekly tennessee bet last week instead of a field goal. that game had 13-11 written all over it. but, never underestimate the incompetency of tennessee this season. also made the mistake of going against NE with a team we've said is a little overrated. remember in october when NE was starting to crush teams and the jets were starting their long slide into the abyss and NYJ covered easily? wlll this happen again? it shouldn't but this is still a lot of points on the road. possible play on the jets.
KC @ Pitt -3 we've had a pretty good read on Pitt this season. we usually think they are overvalued but have been selective in pulling the trigger. i see this as a fairly even matchup so pitt -3 at home is fair. i don't love KC's bad rushing defense on the road against bell and the pitt offense. but KS has a pretty good running game themselves and pitt's defense sucks. my guess is the team that can stick with the run wins the game. i'm leaning to KC here but no real opinion yet.
Shrimps @ Houston +5.5 so randy savage is starting at QB for houston? anyone know who the f*ck that is? oh wait, he's hurt. maybe case keenum then? he was good in college in this same city. this is usually the kind of game we like. an overcorrection with the line due to a QB change. i don't realy care who the QB is. it's one thing if we're going from rodgers or brady to some scrub but going from fitzpatrick to some other scrub shouldn't move the line much. on any given day, whoever the f*ck is starting for houston can be better than fitzpatrick so we might be getting free points. it's not like the shrimps have a good pass defense and foster helps the offense a lot. possible play on houston.
shrimps
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Detroit @ Chicago +7 what an embarrassment for chicago to be 7 point home dogs to detroit in december. this team is as fucked u as any team in the league. unbettable at this point. fortunately, unlike other unbettable teams that we seem to be a lot, we saw this one coming and have avoided them as big underdogs. slight chance of a play on detroit. we like them this season as subscribers know. we especially like a strong defense that needs to win against a team that has quit on offense. if chicago can't do anything against rob ryan's shitty defense, how will they look against detroit. cutler might not even come out of the locker room.
Atl @ NO -5.5 another sad state of affairs that this is a key game for the division. my initial reaction is similar to what i said about TB/Carolina last week. i can see either team winning this one. not sure one is better than the other at this point. so, taking the points makes more sense at first impression. on the other hand, there is still the NO at home factor. it clearly isn't as strong as it used to be but it worked well for us when GB came to town a few weeks ago.
NE @ NYJ +10.5 can't believe the fuckin jets got a late TD to kill our weekly tennessee bet last week instead of a field goal. that game had 13-11 written all over it. but, never underestimate the incompetency of tennessee this season. also made the mistake of going against NE with a team we've said is a little overrated. remember in october when NE was starting to crush teams and the jets were starting their long slide into the abyss and NYJ covered easily? wlll this happen again? it shouldn't but this is still a lot of points on the road. possible play on the jets.
KC @ Pitt -3 we've had a pretty good read on Pitt this season. we usually think they are overvalued but have been selective in pulling the trigger. i see this as a fairly even matchup so pitt -3 at home is fair. i don't love KC's bad rushing defense on the road against bell and the pitt offense. but KS has a pretty good running game themselves and pitt's defense sucks. my guess is the team that can stick with the run wins the game. i'm leaning to KC here but no real opinion yet.
Shrimps @ Houston +5.5 so randy savage is starting at QB for houston? anyone know who the f*ck that is? oh wait, he's hurt. maybe case keenum then? he was good in college in this same city. this is usually the kind of game we like. an overcorrection with the line due to a QB change. i don't realy care who the QB is. it's one thing if we're going from rodgers or brady to some scrub but going from fitzpatrick to some other scrub shouldn't move the line much. on any given day, whoever the f*ck is starting for houston can be better than fitzpatrick so we might be getting free points. it's not like the shrimps have a good pass defense and foster helps the offense a lot. possible play on houston.
NYG @ Stl -5 probably would have bet the rams last week iof it had been sunday. just can't seem to get into betting mode during the week. anyway, this line looks low to me. the giants were terrible before winning two in a row. but, one was against tennessee so that doesn't mean much. and last week was against another shitty team, but washington actually outgained the giants by a lot and the giants couldn't run the ball. so, that little 2 game win streak isn't very impressive to me. of course Stl just played the same teams and won those easily but they've also been competing, and covering and even beating the best teams in the league outside of that. perhaps i overrate the rams since they've been so good to us over the last couple of years but they look like the better team, at home and less likely to mail one in at this point in the season. i say this line should be 7. possible play on the rams.
Buffalo @ Oakland +5.5 our other favorite team this season. buffalo continues to play hard and cover. now, they have to win as road favorites by more than 3 but this is oakland so that's not such a difficult task. buffalo is the much, much better team, and like Stl, they are still going full speed. inf act, they are still in the playoff hunt with a decent chance. unless we get some west coast poor performance out of buffalo, oakland should not be scoring in the 20's here. buffalo seems like the better side.
Indy @ Dallas -3 looks like a tough one for indy. they aren't playing that well lately, dallas should be able to run the ball. i know murray is hurt but i think you can put most RB's behind that OL and they'll have a big day. randle should be fine if murray is limited. you have to be concerned with luck having a huge day against that dallas defense that has given up a lot of points lately, but indy just pretty much clinched their spot in the playoffs so they might be coasting a little while dallas obviously needs to keep winning. seems like dallas is the better play here.
Seattle @ Arizona +8 obviously a huge spread and unlike houston, it does matter that AZ is going with who the f*ck knows at Qb because AZ does not have the RB to take pressure off and they happen to be playing he best defense in the league that really needs to win this game. once the line got to 10 last week, we had to jump on SF, but don't expect the same thing to happen here. i may be wrong and subscribers know how we like to bet on backup QB's getting extra points, but a 3rd string nobody with a questionable running game going against the top defense in the league in a must win game? no thanks. settle or nothing here.
Denver @ Cincy +3 really like cincy here. might even play it despite it being MNF. denver not looking as good, peyton not looking as good, denver just clinched their division last week. sure they'd like to get hime field advantage but with NE likely winning his weekend and NE winning the head to head, that's not likely. i don't like this situation for denver and with cincy dominating last week and the way they've been stringing W's together this season, i think they have a good shot at the win here.
that's it. had to run it a little short for time, but it looks like we have some interesting matchups.
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NYG @ Stl -5 probably would have bet the rams last week iof it had been sunday. just can't seem to get into betting mode during the week. anyway, this line looks low to me. the giants were terrible before winning two in a row. but, one was against tennessee so that doesn't mean much. and last week was against another shitty team, but washington actually outgained the giants by a lot and the giants couldn't run the ball. so, that little 2 game win streak isn't very impressive to me. of course Stl just played the same teams and won those easily but they've also been competing, and covering and even beating the best teams in the league outside of that. perhaps i overrate the rams since they've been so good to us over the last couple of years but they look like the better team, at home and less likely to mail one in at this point in the season. i say this line should be 7. possible play on the rams.
Buffalo @ Oakland +5.5 our other favorite team this season. buffalo continues to play hard and cover. now, they have to win as road favorites by more than 3 but this is oakland so that's not such a difficult task. buffalo is the much, much better team, and like Stl, they are still going full speed. inf act, they are still in the playoff hunt with a decent chance. unless we get some west coast poor performance out of buffalo, oakland should not be scoring in the 20's here. buffalo seems like the better side.
Indy @ Dallas -3 looks like a tough one for indy. they aren't playing that well lately, dallas should be able to run the ball. i know murray is hurt but i think you can put most RB's behind that OL and they'll have a big day. randle should be fine if murray is limited. you have to be concerned with luck having a huge day against that dallas defense that has given up a lot of points lately, but indy just pretty much clinched their spot in the playoffs so they might be coasting a little while dallas obviously needs to keep winning. seems like dallas is the better play here.
Seattle @ Arizona +8 obviously a huge spread and unlike houston, it does matter that AZ is going with who the f*ck knows at Qb because AZ does not have the RB to take pressure off and they happen to be playing he best defense in the league that really needs to win this game. once the line got to 10 last week, we had to jump on SF, but don't expect the same thing to happen here. i may be wrong and subscribers know how we like to bet on backup QB's getting extra points, but a 3rd string nobody with a questionable running game going against the top defense in the league in a must win game? no thanks. settle or nothing here.
Denver @ Cincy +3 really like cincy here. might even play it despite it being MNF. denver not looking as good, peyton not looking as good, denver just clinched their division last week. sure they'd like to get hime field advantage but with NE likely winning his weekend and NE winning the head to head, that's not likely. i don't like this situation for denver and with cincy dominating last week and the way they've been stringing W's together this season, i think they have a good shot at the win here.
that's it. had to run it a little short for time, but it looks like we have some interesting matchups.
i'll probably watch it though, being an NFL degenerate and all.
Same except I am going to bet it. Not much but I do like a few bucks on a game.
I can only figure home field advantage.
Cutler benched and did anybody really believe Johnny Football could do any better. Either the books took a huge beating or just that many stupid people. I will go with stupid. Not me
Getty whats the play.
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i'll probably watch it though, being an NFL degenerate and all.
Same except I am going to bet it. Not much but I do like a few bucks on a game.
I can only figure home field advantage.
Cutler benched and did anybody really believe Johnny Football could do any better. Either the books took a huge beating or just that many stupid people. I will go with stupid. Not me
garbage, kurshka, how could i forget cleveland? i just run down pinnacle's lines at the time. they didn't have one on cleveland @ carolina so i missed it.
so, one more.
Cleveland @ Carolina no line yet at pinnacle. i think it's pretty clear that manziel is starting but i guess they are waiting on newton. sounds like he practiced today but they don't know if he's playing. i'm going to assume he isn't for now until they say he is. if this line is above 3, i'll probably be on cleveland. i say cleveland is the better team. they have some good road wins. carolina went two months without winning a game at one point. sure manziel was horrible but this is kind of like houston, hoyer sucked a lot too. the QB position on some of these teams just isn;t that important on any given day. my guess is cleveland got a little ahed of themselves expecting too much wuth manziel last week. and this is not as good of an opponent as cincy was. they should reign in the gameplan, run more since they have a decent running game and carolina has an average running defense and take some pressure off of manziel. i think we'll see a simpler, more run heavy game plan and a better performance from the cleveland offense. carolina is nothing special. i'd say this line should be carolina -2 if anderson starts. if he does and it is more than 3, possible play on cleveland.
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fellas
garbage, kurshka, how could i forget cleveland? i just run down pinnacle's lines at the time. they didn't have one on cleveland @ carolina so i missed it.
so, one more.
Cleveland @ Carolina no line yet at pinnacle. i think it's pretty clear that manziel is starting but i guess they are waiting on newton. sounds like he practiced today but they don't know if he's playing. i'm going to assume he isn't for now until they say he is. if this line is above 3, i'll probably be on cleveland. i say cleveland is the better team. they have some good road wins. carolina went two months without winning a game at one point. sure manziel was horrible but this is kind of like houston, hoyer sucked a lot too. the QB position on some of these teams just isn;t that important on any given day. my guess is cleveland got a little ahed of themselves expecting too much wuth manziel last week. and this is not as good of an opponent as cincy was. they should reign in the gameplan, run more since they have a decent running game and carolina has an average running defense and take some pressure off of manziel. i think we'll see a simpler, more run heavy game plan and a better performance from the cleveland offense. carolina is nothing special. i'd say this line should be carolina -2 if anderson starts. if he does and it is more than 3, possible play on cleveland.
ok, for those who are watching tomorrow, here's something to do to make it interesting. this isn't a real game because you'd probably be dead the way it's set up but the picture of bortles's girlfriend makes it worth posting.
i reaad kurshka's post and thought he was talking about cutler being benched monday night since i didn't watch the whole game. i just saw cutler was benched this this game. that changes things. might have to look at chicago. clausen isn't any good but again, chicago wasn;t getting garbage out of cutler and he was bringing the tam down with his shitty attitude and the halfass way he was playing. not to get paid all that money and then not seem to give a garbage for the 3 hours a week you are asked to earn it. of course, the OL is a major issue too but i wouldn't be susprised if they all of the sudden started to figure out how to block again with a QB they don't hate. at 7 or more, i might take chicago.
actually, just checked pinnacle and it moved to 8. why the line would move against chicago with cutler being out, i have no idea.
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ok, for those who are watching tomorrow, here's something to do to make it interesting. this isn't a real game because you'd probably be dead the way it's set up but the picture of bortles's girlfriend makes it worth posting.
i reaad kurshka's post and thought he was talking about cutler being benched monday night since i didn't watch the whole game. i just saw cutler was benched this this game. that changes things. might have to look at chicago. clausen isn't any good but again, chicago wasn;t getting garbage out of cutler and he was bringing the tam down with his shitty attitude and the halfass way he was playing. not to get paid all that money and then not seem to give a garbage for the 3 hours a week you are asked to earn it. of course, the OL is a major issue too but i wouldn't be susprised if they all of the sudden started to figure out how to block again with a QB they don't hate. at 7 or more, i might take chicago.
actually, just checked pinnacle and it moved to 8. why the line would move against chicago with cutler being out, i have no idea.
Sorry just read today Cutler being benched for next game. That time of year when teams that suck let other players play. I am not sure about Manziel yet. Yeah he might run for a hundred yards but how many games can you run in this league. Ask RG3.
If I was Murray of Dallas I would say done for the season but the kid wants to play. Dallas always seems good until the playoffs. Two of their playoff loses belong on the comedy channel.
Think Kaepernick was worth that 80 million. What a mess that team is. McDonalald cut today for beating up the only thing he can. Good riddance. They keep saying Harbaugh is gone, not likely unless he wants out. Looks like Gore and Hyde out this week. Think San Diego is the play.
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Sorry just read today Cutler being benched for next game. That time of year when teams that suck let other players play. I am not sure about Manziel yet. Yeah he might run for a hundred yards but how many games can you run in this league. Ask RG3.
If I was Murray of Dallas I would say done for the season but the kid wants to play. Dallas always seems good until the playoffs. Two of their playoff loses belong on the comedy channel.
Think Kaepernick was worth that 80 million. What a mess that team is. McDonalald cut today for beating up the only thing he can. Good riddance. They keep saying Harbaugh is gone, not likely unless he wants out. Looks like Gore and Hyde out this week. Think San Diego is the play.
Minny / Miami line is weird, i would have expected Finns - 3,4.They have won 1 game more than Vikes and are 3 - 3 at home.Other than their pass D which is stout i dont see the - 7.Yet for some reason my brain is telling me to take Finns and probably at - 6' or 6.
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Minny / Miami line is weird, i would have expected Finns - 3,4.They have won 1 game more than Vikes and are 3 - 3 at home.Other than their pass D which is stout i dont see the - 7.Yet for some reason my brain is telling me to take Finns and probably at - 6' or 6.
well, tennessee stays consistent. hopefully some people weren't scared of the big spread, like kurshka. jacksonville hasn't been 4.5 point favorites since tony boselli was playing, i think. i'm just happy i won't be losing money on the titans this week. that's a win for us.
i thought i saw miami was down to 6 or 6.5 that makes more sense. i still don't have much of an opinion about it. i think miami is the better team and of course is at home but 6.5 or so is a lot for them to give against a decent team.
in all likelihood i'll be playing cincy unless sunday pisses me off enough where i just move on to week 17.
if jones is out for atlanta again, it'll be hard to take them. their passing game is the only redeeming quality of that team. they got 20 against a bad pitt defense. NO's defense is probably a little worse but atlanta's offense on the road is worse than at home so it probably evens out, or favors NO a little. NO has been so disappointing this season it's hard to take them as a favorite of more than 3 against a team that can score in a game that matters. but i'm still skeptical of betting against NO at home getting less than 7 with a team that has such a bad defense and can't really run the ball.
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well, tennessee stays consistent. hopefully some people weren't scared of the big spread, like kurshka. jacksonville hasn't been 4.5 point favorites since tony boselli was playing, i think. i'm just happy i won't be losing money on the titans this week. that's a win for us.
i thought i saw miami was down to 6 or 6.5 that makes more sense. i still don't have much of an opinion about it. i think miami is the better team and of course is at home but 6.5 or so is a lot for them to give against a decent team.
in all likelihood i'll be playing cincy unless sunday pisses me off enough where i just move on to week 17.
if jones is out for atlanta again, it'll be hard to take them. their passing game is the only redeeming quality of that team. they got 20 against a bad pitt defense. NO's defense is probably a little worse but atlanta's offense on the road is worse than at home so it probably evens out, or favors NO a little. NO has been so disappointing this season it's hard to take them as a favorite of more than 3 against a team that can score in a game that matters. but i'm still skeptical of betting against NO at home getting less than 7 with a team that has such a bad defense and can't really run the ball.
richig, i've been commenting on your teases. just my advice. take it for what it's worth. i rarely play teasers but when i do, i'm usually looking for two things. underdogs who are already getting too many points (so instead of 6 points, i'm getting 7 or 8 for the price of 6) and/or games where the line has moved too much due to an injury, usually a QB. maybe houston would be an example this week. possibly chicago.
good luck.
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richig, steelerfan
richig, i've been commenting on your teases. just my advice. take it for what it's worth. i rarely play teasers but when i do, i'm usually looking for two things. underdogs who are already getting too many points (so instead of 6 points, i'm getting 7 or 8 for the price of 6) and/or games where the line has moved too much due to an injury, usually a QB. maybe houston would be an example this week. possibly chicago.
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