ClubDirtSports Week Three

YTD 4-6

keep in mind, i still have no idea what's going on in the nfl. so, with that, let's see what the numbers look like this week.

Miami @ Jax -2.5 we're back to having horrible thursday night games, although i'm kind of interested in this because i think miami is going to be decent this season and i'm not sure how jax is nearly 2-0, but an easy 2-0 where it counts. this line should be 3 at most. anything over that and i'd consider miami since they'd underdog of 3+ that can easily win. looks like it's 2.5/3 which is where it should be. i'll just watch it, unlike most people.

Rams @ Bills -2.5 i actually think both of these teams are going to be overvalued soon. the rams have two nice wins over two teams who are supposed to be playoff contenders. the bills have had it pretty easy but they look pretty good so far. i think it's tough to ask the rams to beat dallas and philly and then travel to the east coast to play a tough defense like this. i wouldn't give too many points here but i don't see the rams being up to the task here. i'll say 3.5. only 2.5. that's interesting. people think the rams are the better team here? i'm not so sure.

Houston @ Pitt -4 houston has had a tough start to the season playing the two top teams in the afc and now another possible playoff team. i think this is one they can win. pitt covered against the terrible giants but it could have been different if a couple of plays had gone differently. and then they couldn't close out denver with their qb and top receiver out. i think pitt is pretty good but not one of the top teams. i doubt houston will be undervalued. no one expected them to have a win at this point and pitt isn't too scary. i'll say 3.5.  it's 4.  i think there's value with houston and this line will come down to 3.5 or maybe 3.

SF @ Giants +4.5 SF got crushed by injuries last week. fortunately, they still have some talent and good coaching and one of the better backups in the league. they should still win this game. the giants are horrible, although they have their own injuriy problems.  hard to set a line with all of the injuries here but i'll say SF -2.5. 4.5 seems high here.  SF lost a lot last weekend.  the giants lost a RB and no matter how good a RB is, that's the easiest position to replace. remember, in week 1, barkley had 6 rushing yards and the giants could have covered that one. last week, he had 28 before he got injured the giants had 75 total and they almost won. so, i wouldn't compare losing barkley to the injuries SF has and i don't even think it'll matter much most weeks.  ther's value with the giants here.

Tenn @ Minn +2.5 so how is minnesota the worst team in the league after two weeks? they gave up 43 points at home in week one and basically scored 3 points when it mattered last week, to a team that let cashew go 19/20 the previous week. that's really bad and i can't say i understand it. everyone will be expecting minn to bounce back and i'm sure they will.  maybe they figure it will be against tenn who struggled to beat a terrible jaguars team and an average denver team. maybe it will. i'm not a big fan of guessing when teams that have looked horrible will figure it out all of a sudden.  i don't like tenn on the road after two close calls though either. i'll guess tenn -2. it's 2.5 which looks about right given minn's last two weeks. nothing would surprise me in this one.

Wash @ Cleveland -7.5 washington is intresting as they dominated philly's OL and wentz to beat them but then that same defensive line got blown up by murray and AZ.  AZ has more weapons on offense and i have to say a better qb at this point, but that was a big different in two weeks for that defense. cleveland is closer to philly in that the OL is questionable and the qb play has been very erratic.  washington could have another solid defensive performance here.  and while their offense is pretty bad, so is cleveland's defense so they could keep this one close if cleveland struggles on offense.  cleveland was just -6 at home to cincy. i think this is a tougher matchup for them but close enough to justify a similar spread. i'll guess 6.  7.5 seems high. cleveland isn't good enough to be favored by more than 7 against anyone.

Cincy @ Philly -6.5 like minnesota, philly is better than their record and they should get things straight here. burrow played well last week but don't expect any kind of consistency and philly has better coaching and should have a better defense than cleveland. i'd be careful of an inflated line as people expect philly to boucne back but then again, people might be higher on cincy after one good game against cleveland.  i'll say 5.5. it's 6.5. that's probably at least 0.5 more than it should be based on the jerseys alone, but i don't like cincy here as badly as their defense played last week.

Chicago @ Atlanta -3.5 i imagine atlanta will be a popular play after last week and with chicago struggling to beat two bad teams. they should win at home. there's a huge difference between these two offenses. atlanta put up 500+ yards against seattle and then 39 points against dallas. how is chicago going to keep up with that?  i don't see it.  i'll guess 3.5. that's it. atalnta should cover here although it's always dangerous giving more than 3 with a team with a bad defense like this. just hard to see chicago keeping up.

NYJ @ Indy -10.5 so the jets are the worst team in the league despite minnesota trying to gain that title. SF's best players were dropping like flies last week and it didn't make any difference in that game. this is just a terrible team with little talent and bad coaching. indy went from a terrible loss and bad defense to a good win and dominating defense. while i don't trust rivers anywamo, i think they are a good team. i don't think the jets will have much to offer here. i also don't see a rivers team as a smart bet as large favorite.  i'll guess 9. ok, 10.5 is too high for a team that is just two weeks from losing to the jaguars and letting cashew pass all over them. and who can trust rivers with a double digit spread.

Carolina @ Chargers -6.5 so i've bet carolina both weeks, both weeks they've been winning or covering very late in the game and both weeks they give up a late touchdown to lose. i guess that's what happens when your defense is this bad. and they lost mccaffrey this week. again, he's just a RB so it can only mean so much. but, he's probably the most valuable RB of all since this team relies on him so much. still, i wouldn't move a line too much based on the loss of a rb no matter who it is. and while the chargers did really well last week against KC, despite their idiot coach basically giving the game away by punting in OT, they also played cincy even the week before so i wouldn't assume this is a good team yet. i can see this line getting out of hand due to the mccaffrey injury. i wouldn't give a lot of points with this chargers team. i'll say 6.5. it's 6.5. since the line is right where i'd have it, hopefully, i won't be taking carolina again.  but it's possible.

Detroit @ AZ -5.5 i can see an inflated line here.  AZ is going to be a public favorite any day now and everyone hates detroit.  i can't really see how detroit is going to stop this AZ offense, but detroit does have talent and this sets up pretty well for them. they are 0-2 despite having leads in both games. ad they should be able to score here.  AZ is coming off two big wins. the SF win was huge. washington isn't anything special but they do have a scary defense and were off a big comeback win vs. philly.  maybe AZ doesn't get up for this one enough to justify a big spread? or maybe they run over detroit and the next week @ carolina is their letdown spot so we bet carolina for a 4th week in a row?  i'll say 7. only 5.5.  that spread does say letdown to me. i like detroit in this spot, but hoped for more points.

TB @ Denver +6 might come back with denver against TB. i can't see anyone liking denver with the injuries they've had this season and everyone should love TB now. but, fangio had their defense playing very well at the end of last season and they've done pretty well so far this season after losing miller. a good defense as a home dog against an overrated team that i still bet needs a few more weeks to get their offense going. depends on the line.  i'll guess 6.5. only 6.  i think this will be close but not sure 6 is tempting enough.

Dallas @ Seattle -5 dallas has looked pretty bad so far and obviously got very lucky to win that one. like minn and philly, they should get it together but it's hard to predict when that happens.  this is kind of a good spot for them though. they've been shit for two games and need to have a strong game. seattle is coming off a huge, tough win to NE. this should be close and the underdog is worht a look if we can get at least 4.5. it's 5 so i think that makes dallas lean for now. dallas is another team at 3+ who can win the game.

GB @ NO -3 kind of like NO here after a tough loss coming back home, basically because i just don't think there's any way GB is this good. they might be good, but maybe minn is trash right now and the lions are a mess and the first time GB goes on the road to play a legit team, it might not go as well. that's what i'm thinking but again, i don't have a good feel fro any of these teams so take that for what it's worth.  i'll guess 3 because NO at home can't be less than 3 to just about anyone. it's 3. a fair line and i'll take a look at NO.

KC @ Shrimp -3 yes, the shrimp have killed tow teams but houston has a bad defense and a terrible coach and cleveland has serious issues as well. so yes they probably are good, but i wouldn't get carried away with them until we get into the heart of their schedule. i know KC struggled last week and i'm not sure why but this team appears to be just as good as the super bowl team, if not a little better. does that mean KC can go into the shrimps and win? i think so. i don't like it enough to predict it though. the shrimp have to be favored at home, probably by 3 as that's how these spreads go for these kinds of games. it's 3 but pinnacle has the shrimp at -125. if you can get 3.5, then KC might be worth looking at.

LV @ NE  -6 i guess i missed this one or maybe it was off when i started. LV struggled to beat carolina which was bad and then had a huge win last night. this has never been a consistent team so a big win and then going to NE seems like a tough situation for them. NE looked a loit better than i thought againsts eattle and should be ready to boucne back. their offense looks very good and the LV defense is pretty bad. NE just needs to get a few stops like carolina and NO couldn't. i think they probably will although LV will be a tough underdog at 6 or more because they can score and will often be a backdoor cover candidate. with LV's inconsistency and NE off a tough loss coming home, NE is probably the way to go here. i already saw that it's 6 and that seems like a fair line. 

i think that's everyone.

checking the lines at other places:

Indy is at 11 at some places. i'm tempted to lock in the jets but they are really bad so i'll wait. i am going to hit one, maybe two, early plays. as always, i may not keep these but i don't see these lines holding and they are already gone at some places.

early play (for now)

Washington +7.5 -115

going to keep a close eye on the giants but the idea is that SF closed at 7 over the jets. the giants are better than the jets with or without barkley. this is saying that the loss of their qb and probably two best players on defense is only worth maybe 2 points. i don't see it. but, while i'm usually right about these lines moving in the right direction, or at worst staying still, it's very hard to predict what the line will do in a game like this with so many key injuries. also, kittle is expected to return and that's pretty big for this offense. just too many variables for a play right now.

It will take a while, but I'll find out Belichick's record coming off a loss. The Raiders off a prime time win(short week) going east at noon can't be good. I think the Pats main goal on defense will be to take away Waller, cause that's what the Pats do, take away their best weapon.

Best of Luck CD 

The Chiefs are maybe a little better....The problem is the Shrimps are a lot better....

For a game with zero fans the line looks inflated ..They thought they would play them here in late January 

to go to the Bowl....Sadly got caught peaking ahead...It's time....

Nice work as usual CD....thought about Washington but couldnt pull the trigger on the west to east even though thats a little overated but Cleveland  also answers the naysayers at certain times and this could be the week give their fans a little hope situational per say at least for the time being .....bol this week 

The fans are what makes this KC engine go. Gonna be a tough year for them

Vikes definitely not better than their record but love them to bounce back this week. 

no major changes in the lines as far as i can see. everything available yesterday afternoon seems to be available today, although if you want washington +7.5, i think you need to get it now. this line should be 7 or 6.5 by sunday.

KC should be -7 by tonight.

good luck this week.

while i like this situation for NE, belichik off a loss will take all of the value out of NE. are we sure NE is the better team here? do we trust this team with fairly large spreads against teams that can score like LV?

NE #9 in dvoa, LV #20

NE better than LV in ypp on O and D

Home advantage for Pats(minus a little for no fans)

I think the line starts right there. I don't think oddsmakers sucked any value out of it imo.

Exactly what he'll do. He already commented that "Lots of good tight ends in the league but nobody does more than this guy." Translation : We will eliminate him. On another note, Belichick asked if he has been in such a quiet environment like the first two games without fans. One word answer "Practice" He is a gem. 

Patriots just look spry and motivated all over. The Fig was the answer. 

CD, I totally agree that the Giants are very much in play this week. SF has to play on the same road field that they were complaining about against a different team with a better coach and better attitude. The 49ers are heading down the rabbit hole despite their best efforts to stay on solid ground. 

Totally with you on the Saints and Cowboys as well.

Philly is kind of a sneaky good play that most will avoid. They remember the Burrow Bengals on Thursday night and the inept Eagles of the first 2 weeks. 

Pre season line had the Dolphins -1 over Jax. Not much reason to see why the line is edging towards -3 for Jax. They're actually enjoyable to watch but they're also not very good. I'll take Flores over Coach Moron here with the points. 

Great stuff as usual. 

OK it's time to fire the torpedoes for Thursday. Josh Lambo the 3rd most accurate kicker in the NFL for the last 3 years is on IR. Some guy from Georgia State has been signed to be his replacement.

More importantly, center Brandon Lindor who has been a top 5 performer at the position for 3 of the last 4 years is officially out. Total gut punch for Cashew and the offense. 

Miami +2.5 

Miami ML

Miami/Jax Under 48.5

Like that Miami play Getty

Initially my thoughts as well. So hard to predict with Kurt Cousins though, he's so enigmatic. 

Do you think the loss/value of Steffon Digs was underestimated by the Vikings?

Something about the Vikings just don't feel right, and it's hard to put a finger on it, as CD has eluded to.

Other than the Patriots, every team has a certain window of being a SB contender. That window has slammed shut for the Vikes. They seem to lack chemistry. 

Entire NFC North is hard to figure. I'm not yet sold on GB, although they are clearly the class of that division, mostly because the other 3 teams stink right now.

4-5 last week. So happy I threw Indy out and replaced them with the Boys 

Mia +3, ML 

Gentlemen, drunk. Brb...

franks and beans 

In responding to Hugh and Under, I’m not ready to give up on them yet.

without a preseason, I think it’s difficult to get a good read on most teams after two games. Yes the Vikings look terrible, but we do know they have the talent. And clearly their defense would not drop off from one of the best in the league to the absolute worst that quickly.

I do think missing Diggs hurts in certain ways. He was talented, and somewhat erratic. But where he is really messed with his fire. Right now it just does not seem this team has any fire. Again, I do expect that will change. There’s just too much talent there.

As bad as the Vikes look so far ....I wish i grabbed the +3 when i had the chance now it seems like books looking for Tenny action