Good stat, and the Saints should win this week ... but I think I will be on the Browns with the points
I agree. There were some other trends that offset that. I have the link to a bunch of interesting trends. If ClubDirt gives me the okay, I'll post the link.
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Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:
Good stat, and the Saints should win this week ... but I think I will be on the Browns with the points
I agree. There were some other trends that offset that. I have the link to a bunch of interesting trends. If ClubDirt gives me the okay, I'll post the link.
damn, brutal week. i don't think my day job appreciates the responsibilities that come along with ClubDirtSports.com during football season.
shrimp, that must have been a fun game to watch.
T6, post anything and everything you want.
HJS , i'm hoping to post some abbreviated thoughts tomorrow and some bets tomorrow and/or sunday.
getty, i did see that Jax is @ Wash. i didn't see the line yet, but i assume Wash goes into the, that team shouldn't be favored by 6.5 or more over anyone, category.
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damn, brutal week. i don't think my day job appreciates the responsibilities that come along with ClubDirtSports.com during football season.
shrimp, that must have been a fun game to watch.
T6, post anything and everything you want.
HJS , i'm hoping to post some abbreviated thoughts tomorrow and some bets tomorrow and/or sunday.
getty, i did see that Jax is @ Wash. i didn't see the line yet, but i assume Wash goes into the, that team shouldn't be favored by 6.5 or more over anyone, category.
also, that is the stat i was looking for. 18-5 ats is nice and being a huge sean payton fan. it makes sense to me. i knjow they are at cleveland. if it is more than 7, can't take the saints. agree with HJS that i'd take a good look at those points.
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also, that is the stat i was looking for. 18-5 ats is nice and being a huge sean payton fan. it makes sense to me. i knjow they are at cleveland. if it is more than 7, can't take the saints. agree with HJS that i'd take a good look at those points.
just going through twitter now. this shows you how behind i am. uh, what the f*ck did peterson do? the vikings were going to be one of my teams to bet on this season. this sounds like a ray rice publicity stunt.
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just going through twitter now. this shows you how behind i am. uh, what the f*ck did peterson do? the vikings were going to be one of my teams to bet on this season. this sounds like a ray rice publicity stunt.
ok, so washington is -6. one question is whether Jax's first half was more representative of this team's quality now or the second half. this could potentially be one of those games we see in weeks 1 and 2 where the wrong team is favored. jax may very well end up being abetter team than washington this season.
T6, i looked at that link and saw the stat where road teams rarely cover in saints games. hard to take the saints seriously as touchdown+ favorites on the road whether coming off a loss or not.
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ok, so washington is -6. one question is whether Jax's first half was more representative of this team's quality now or the second half. this could potentially be one of those games we see in weeks 1 and 2 where the wrong team is favored. jax may very well end up being abetter team than washington this season.
T6, i looked at that link and saw the stat where road teams rarely cover in saints games. hard to take the saints seriously as touchdown+ favorites on the road whether coming off a loss or not.
one more point about the pitt/baltimore game. this is paraphrasing what i wrote to cacaB. of course, the saying hindsight is 20/20 applies partially but i was pretty clear that i thought 2.5 made no sense.
yeah, the ray rice issue must have been it but i have baltimore as at
least a better team by 3 points and then give them 3 or so for home
field, subtract maybe one or two because of the rivalry and the fact
that those games are usually close and that line should have been 4 at
least. you know one of the CDS.com rules, when off the field garbage
happens, you never know if or how it will affect a team. could go
either way. so, either don't bet it or try and get some line value out
of it. but to bet pitt at 2.5 when you have to know the line should be
at least 3 because you think the team plays worse due to the ray rice
issue is just really bad betting.
even if you disagree with my valuations of Blt and Pitt, when extracurricular stuff happens, which seems to be often these days, how does anyone know if the team plays worse because of the distraction, plays better because they "come together" or whatever or it has no effect at all. that's a complete guess. clearly pitt wasn't getting full line value at 2.5, which is basically even, so to bet pitt is to make a complete guess on the effect of the ray rice sh*t and give up a ton of value with the spread. when you think about it, it makes no sense to do that. if you liked pitt, the best thing to do is just walk away from it because you lost so much value getting below 3.
now, the peterson situation is a little different. the possible distraction issue is the same but Blt can obviously function fine on offense without rice. can minnesota function well without peterson? i'm not so sure about that. we'll have to see where the line settles for that one.
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one more point about the pitt/baltimore game. this is paraphrasing what i wrote to cacaB. of course, the saying hindsight is 20/20 applies partially but i was pretty clear that i thought 2.5 made no sense.
yeah, the ray rice issue must have been it but i have baltimore as at
least a better team by 3 points and then give them 3 or so for home
field, subtract maybe one or two because of the rivalry and the fact
that those games are usually close and that line should have been 4 at
least. you know one of the CDS.com rules, when off the field garbage
happens, you never know if or how it will affect a team. could go
either way. so, either don't bet it or try and get some line value out
of it. but to bet pitt at 2.5 when you have to know the line should be
at least 3 because you think the team plays worse due to the ray rice
issue is just really bad betting.
even if you disagree with my valuations of Blt and Pitt, when extracurricular stuff happens, which seems to be often these days, how does anyone know if the team plays worse because of the distraction, plays better because they "come together" or whatever or it has no effect at all. that's a complete guess. clearly pitt wasn't getting full line value at 2.5, which is basically even, so to bet pitt is to make a complete guess on the effect of the ray rice sh*t and give up a ton of value with the spread. when you think about it, it makes no sense to do that. if you liked pitt, the best thing to do is just walk away from it because you lost so much value getting below 3.
now, the peterson situation is a little different. the possible distraction issue is the same but Blt can obviously function fine on offense without rice. can minnesota function well without peterson? i'm not so sure about that. we'll have to see where the line settles for that one.
Detroit @ Car -2.5 i'm not sold on detroit at all. yeah, they looked great against the giants but the giants looked like the same team from last season. we know carolina can play defense so let's see if stafford and that usually undisciplined team can do the same thing against a top defense on the road on grass. i'm guessing they can't. 2.5 seems pretty good here.
Miami @ Buffalo -1 i guess people believed what they saw with miami fairly easily beating NE at home but didn't believe what they saw with buffalo beating chicago on the road. i might say the buffalo win was a better win. so why is this basically even? not sure it should be 3 but 2, 2.5? i'll look at buffalo here.
Jax @ Wash -6 two teams showed up in te Jax game last week. i think Jax's first half performance was more the result of philly playing poorly and turnovers, but Jax did create those turnovers and played pretty good defense. the second half was the Jax team we all know. let's say Jax is mostly the bad team. is wash still deserving a 6 point spread. when was the last time you felt confident betting them as a decent sized favorite? i'll look at jax here.
Dallas @ tenn -3.5 as we said last week, tenn is an underrated team we really like this season. they should have their way with dallas as bad as that defense is. but dallas is a team we identified as one this week where people are likely to overreact. we didn't understand that fairly low spread against SF last week and why so many liked dallas. everyone says dallas has no defense this year and they were playing one of the best teams in the league. now, they play a team with a very god OL and DL. the OL should have their way with dallas's defense and if the DL can get pressure on romo, we all know what can happen. but, dallas is undervalued this week and their offense didn't look too bad when romo wasn't turning the ball over. i'll have to think if dallas being undervalued this week or tenn being underrated generally prevails.
AZ @ NYG +2 yeah, i don't know about this. this looks like a wrong team favored situation. is AZ the better team? i'm not sure. probably but not favored on the road on the east coast after a tough comeback victory better. the Giants looked horrible last week, maybe the worst of any team. you know what we usually do in these situations.
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some quick thoughts
Detroit @ Car -2.5 i'm not sold on detroit at all. yeah, they looked great against the giants but the giants looked like the same team from last season. we know carolina can play defense so let's see if stafford and that usually undisciplined team can do the same thing against a top defense on the road on grass. i'm guessing they can't. 2.5 seems pretty good here.
Miami @ Buffalo -1 i guess people believed what they saw with miami fairly easily beating NE at home but didn't believe what they saw with buffalo beating chicago on the road. i might say the buffalo win was a better win. so why is this basically even? not sure it should be 3 but 2, 2.5? i'll look at buffalo here.
Jax @ Wash -6 two teams showed up in te Jax game last week. i think Jax's first half performance was more the result of philly playing poorly and turnovers, but Jax did create those turnovers and played pretty good defense. the second half was the Jax team we all know. let's say Jax is mostly the bad team. is wash still deserving a 6 point spread. when was the last time you felt confident betting them as a decent sized favorite? i'll look at jax here.
Dallas @ tenn -3.5 as we said last week, tenn is an underrated team we really like this season. they should have their way with dallas as bad as that defense is. but dallas is a team we identified as one this week where people are likely to overreact. we didn't understand that fairly low spread against SF last week and why so many liked dallas. everyone says dallas has no defense this year and they were playing one of the best teams in the league. now, they play a team with a very god OL and DL. the OL should have their way with dallas's defense and if the DL can get pressure on romo, we all know what can happen. but, dallas is undervalued this week and their offense didn't look too bad when romo wasn't turning the ball over. i'll have to think if dallas being undervalued this week or tenn being underrated generally prevails.
AZ @ NYG +2 yeah, i don't know about this. this looks like a wrong team favored situation. is AZ the better team? i'm not sure. probably but not favored on the road on the east coast after a tough comeback victory better. the Giants looked horrible last week, maybe the worst of any team. you know what we usually do in these situations.
NE @ Minn +6 forgetting about peterson for a minute, you get no value with NE because the line will be inflated by people assuming NE can't lose two in a row to inferior teams and people don't buy minnesota and assume they won't win two in a row. with that, the value is with minn. but, you can't ignore the loss of peterson, especially with cassel back there and belichik's ability to frustrate one dimensional offenses. of course, without peterson, i'm not sure what that one dimension is. probably no play.
NO @ Clev +6.5 we talked about this a little. NO is great after a loss, but not great covering as favorites on the road. i like No a lot this season but i'm looking to play them at home or on the road when they aren't fairly big favorites. 6.5 is too many points. given that clev. gets no respect, i think they are tempting you to take NO here. i like the points but i was hoping for 7. can;t see it going there. might still take the 6.5
Atl @ Cinc. -5.5 the 5.5 spread always concerns me since it's obviously in between such key areas. i think it says these two teams are very difficult to call right now. cincy very impressively had 5 scoring chances in the first half in a very tough road game for week one. very unimpressively they couldn't get in the end zone once and then gave up a pretty good lead. Atl isn't as talented as cincy yet got a nice home win. based on talent alone, i'm fine taking cincy here. but if that Atl offense is as good as they looked last week, Atl could win this or easily get the backdoor cover. my thought is Atl will have a much harder time on the road against a better defense than they saw last week.
Stl @ Tb -5.5 both teams looked terrible last week. too bad because i would have looked to play both of them this week if they weren't playing each other, not because they both played poorly last week but because i think both aren't bad teams. certainly not as bad as they looked and that's what we look for this week. i'll either take these points or avoid it.
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NE @ Minn +6 forgetting about peterson for a minute, you get no value with NE because the line will be inflated by people assuming NE can't lose two in a row to inferior teams and people don't buy minnesota and assume they won't win two in a row. with that, the value is with minn. but, you can't ignore the loss of peterson, especially with cassel back there and belichik's ability to frustrate one dimensional offenses. of course, without peterson, i'm not sure what that one dimension is. probably no play.
NO @ Clev +6.5 we talked about this a little. NO is great after a loss, but not great covering as favorites on the road. i like No a lot this season but i'm looking to play them at home or on the road when they aren't fairly big favorites. 6.5 is too many points. given that clev. gets no respect, i think they are tempting you to take NO here. i like the points but i was hoping for 7. can;t see it going there. might still take the 6.5
Atl @ Cinc. -5.5 the 5.5 spread always concerns me since it's obviously in between such key areas. i think it says these two teams are very difficult to call right now. cincy very impressively had 5 scoring chances in the first half in a very tough road game for week one. very unimpressively they couldn't get in the end zone once and then gave up a pretty good lead. Atl isn't as talented as cincy yet got a nice home win. based on talent alone, i'm fine taking cincy here. but if that Atl offense is as good as they looked last week, Atl could win this or easily get the backdoor cover. my thought is Atl will have a much harder time on the road against a better defense than they saw last week.
Stl @ Tb -5.5 both teams looked terrible last week. too bad because i would have looked to play both of them this week if they weren't playing each other, not because they both played poorly last week but because i think both aren't bad teams. certainly not as bad as they looked and that's what we look for this week. i'll either take these points or avoid it.
Seattle -5 @ Sd another 5 point spread and they are even more rpecarious when they are road favorites. Seattle looks like the best again, just dismantled a good GB team, had extra time to rest/prepare while SD is on a short week after losing a tough game against a team much worse than this. you think seattle will be a popular bet this week? why isn't is 6 or 6.5? betting against seattle at home is off limits until further notice. betting against them here is intriguing but needs further study.
Houston @ Oak +3 the jets shouldn't have been favored by as much as they were vs. Oak last week and it afforded us a back door cover opportunity. how soon do people forget that Houston won 2 games last season. was beating Wash at home that impressive last week scoring 17 against a shitty defense? now they should be 3 point favorites on the road against anyone? fitzpatrick is still the Qb right? clowney's injured. clearly, we'll be looking at Oakland here.
NYJ @ GB -7.5 too many points here too. probably. this line is inflated from 7 because people expect the bounceback. but 7.5 is probably too many to give when GB plays defense like they do. and the jets are improving on offense, i believe. and they have a good DL. the one concern is the jets are supposed to have a horrible secondary. Oak couldn't take advantage but if any team can, it's this one. my thoughts on GB after last week's beatdown is they are what we thought they were. the best QB, great offense, a couple of good players on defense but pretty bad overall on defense. they will roll teams that can't keep up, they will give up some late TD's that will backdoor you if they are big favorites and they will struggle against good teams that play good defense and can run the ball. i have the jets as a team in between getting rolled and can't keep up (mostly because of their secondary) and team that can play good defense (because their DL) and hold onto the ball on offense. i'll either stay away or take the points. no value with GB here in my opinion.
KC @ Denver -13 too many points. KC isn't as good this year and got some bad defensive injuries last week but this is too many points. either KC or nothing here.
Chicago @ SF -7 again, noit sure what people saw in a terrible dallas defense last week but SF showed what they are an elite team. they get another bad defense this week. and chicago has serious WR injury concerns after scoring just 20 with OT at home vs. buffalo. why won't SF have their way with another bad defense this week? looks like SF or nothing here.
Philly @ Indy -3 subscribers know we don't like Indy at all. our prediction that they don't win the division looks ok after all of one week. i'm fairly confident saying they aren't the best team in the division but luck can take them far and if locker gets hurt, that changes things. anyway, the wrong team is favored here. i we certainly won't be betting on indy wth a shitty defense as a favorite against a team with this kind of offense. just can't see it. do we bet philly? we liked denver last week but such a large spread against luck just begs for a backdoor cover situation. plus as we saw last year, some weeks indy can just surprise the hell out of you. this wilkl probably be a no play but possibly a play on philly.
well, that's it for this week. things should return to normal next week. plays probably tomorrow morning.
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Seattle -5 @ Sd another 5 point spread and they are even more rpecarious when they are road favorites. Seattle looks like the best again, just dismantled a good GB team, had extra time to rest/prepare while SD is on a short week after losing a tough game against a team much worse than this. you think seattle will be a popular bet this week? why isn't is 6 or 6.5? betting against seattle at home is off limits until further notice. betting against them here is intriguing but needs further study.
Houston @ Oak +3 the jets shouldn't have been favored by as much as they were vs. Oak last week and it afforded us a back door cover opportunity. how soon do people forget that Houston won 2 games last season. was beating Wash at home that impressive last week scoring 17 against a shitty defense? now they should be 3 point favorites on the road against anyone? fitzpatrick is still the Qb right? clowney's injured. clearly, we'll be looking at Oakland here.
NYJ @ GB -7.5 too many points here too. probably. this line is inflated from 7 because people expect the bounceback. but 7.5 is probably too many to give when GB plays defense like they do. and the jets are improving on offense, i believe. and they have a good DL. the one concern is the jets are supposed to have a horrible secondary. Oak couldn't take advantage but if any team can, it's this one. my thoughts on GB after last week's beatdown is they are what we thought they were. the best QB, great offense, a couple of good players on defense but pretty bad overall on defense. they will roll teams that can't keep up, they will give up some late TD's that will backdoor you if they are big favorites and they will struggle against good teams that play good defense and can run the ball. i have the jets as a team in between getting rolled and can't keep up (mostly because of their secondary) and team that can play good defense (because their DL) and hold onto the ball on offense. i'll either stay away or take the points. no value with GB here in my opinion.
KC @ Denver -13 too many points. KC isn't as good this year and got some bad defensive injuries last week but this is too many points. either KC or nothing here.
Chicago @ SF -7 again, noit sure what people saw in a terrible dallas defense last week but SF showed what they are an elite team. they get another bad defense this week. and chicago has serious WR injury concerns after scoring just 20 with OT at home vs. buffalo. why won't SF have their way with another bad defense this week? looks like SF or nothing here.
Philly @ Indy -3 subscribers know we don't like Indy at all. our prediction that they don't win the division looks ok after all of one week. i'm fairly confident saying they aren't the best team in the division but luck can take them far and if locker gets hurt, that changes things. anyway, the wrong team is favored here. i we certainly won't be betting on indy wth a shitty defense as a favorite against a team with this kind of offense. just can't see it. do we bet philly? we liked denver last week but such a large spread against luck just begs for a backdoor cover situation. plus as we saw last year, some weeks indy can just surprise the hell out of you. this wilkl probably be a no play but possibly a play on philly.
well, that's it for this week. things should return to normal next week. plays probably tomorrow morning.
I do think Browns + 7 will be available. 5- 5' lines to me indicate just a little gray area for the books Was not aware of Bears receivers,gonna check nowBut if Hyde does turn out to be the RB i think he is San Fran will be tough.
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I do think Browns + 7 will be available. 5- 5' lines to me indicate just a little gray area for the books Was not aware of Bears receivers,gonna check nowBut if Hyde does turn out to be the RB i think he is San Fran will be tough.
i'm pretty much a coin flip at predicting line moves. if anyone sees NO at -7 or more, let us know. i'll probably take those points. the way NO can score touchdowns, i'm hesitant at 6.5.
we don't have too many superstitions here at CDS.com but i pretty much never bet a 5.5 point favorite, especially if it's a road favorite.
looks like alshon and marshall are both questionable but probably closer to a yes than a no from what i've read.
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biscuit
i'm pretty much a coin flip at predicting line moves. if anyone sees NO at -7 or more, let us know. i'll probably take those points. the way NO can score touchdowns, i'm hesitant at 6.5.
we don't have too many superstitions here at CDS.com but i pretty much never bet a 5.5 point favorite, especially if it's a road favorite.
looks like alshon and marshall are both questionable but probably closer to a yes than a no from what i've read.
I'll be honest. Nothing worse than capping your own games, then reading garbage like that to make you think twice.
t6rider's official plays for Sunday at William Hill:
Cowboys +3.5
Jaguars +6
Chargers +6
now that i've seen the lines, T6, you've made some bold moves here. but i like them. i'd be surprised if you go 1-2 here. might even see 2 outright wins.
i'm a little gunshy with Jax after last season. i know where T6 is on this. 5dimes has this at +6 -110 and +6.5 at -118. i doubt it gets much better. i'll probably play this at +6 soon. anyone see this number getting better for Jax?
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Quote Originally Posted by t6rider:
I'll be honest. Nothing worse than capping your own games, then reading garbage like that to make you think twice.
t6rider's official plays for Sunday at William Hill:
Cowboys +3.5
Jaguars +6
Chargers +6
now that i've seen the lines, T6, you've made some bold moves here. but i like them. i'd be surprised if you go 1-2 here. might even see 2 outright wins.
i'm a little gunshy with Jax after last season. i know where T6 is on this. 5dimes has this at +6 -110 and +6.5 at -118. i doubt it gets much better. i'll probably play this at +6 soon. anyone see this number getting better for Jax?
i'm pretty much a coin flip at predicting line moves. if anyone sees NO at -7 or more, let us know. i'll probably take those points. the way NO can score touchdowns, i'm hesitant at 6.5.
we don't have too many superstitions here at CDS.com but i pretty much never bet a 5.5 point favorite, especially if it's a road favorite.
looks like alshon and marshall are both questionable but probably closer to a yes than a no from what i've read.
5dimes is showing 7 now.
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
biscuit
i'm pretty much a coin flip at predicting line moves. if anyone sees NO at -7 or more, let us know. i'll probably take those points. the way NO can score touchdowns, i'm hesitant at 6.5.
we don't have too many superstitions here at CDS.com but i pretty much never bet a 5.5 point favorite, especially if it's a road favorite.
looks like alshon and marshall are both questionable but probably closer to a yes than a no from what i've read.
I'm warming up to the Panthers.I believe they willshut the Lions run game down forcing Stafford to throw 60 times opening him up to be blown up.Of course Cam is going to face a fierce rush also but he hasthe ability to escape and make plays.Couple that with their running game...yeah i'm getting on them
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I'm warming up to the Panthers.I believe they willshut the Lions run game down forcing Stafford to throw 60 times opening him up to be blown up.Of course Cam is going to face a fierce rush also but he hasthe ability to escape and make plays.Couple that with their running game...yeah i'm getting on them
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But if Hyde does turn out to be the RB i think he is San Fran will be tough.
.............Traffic in and out of the stadium will be crazy 
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