Posted:
#1
YTD 6-2
good news and bad news this week.
good news: Hugh Jorman Sports ended his holdout last night going 2-0 in the monday night games.
bad news: i have no idea if and when i'll be able to get the bulk of the newsletter out this week, although we'll certainly have time for picks by sunday. so the newsletter analyses start the week on the injury report at highly doubtful. as always, anyone else is free to contribute any thoughts, trends, angles, smartass comments, shrimp/ray rice jokes, etc.
that being said, we'll leave you with this.
speaking of trends, we discussed the danger of betting road favorites in divisional games in week one. T6 tracked down a strong trend supporting this and both lost outright. T6, i thought i saw the artist formerly known as gilmosports post something about Sean Payton and/or New Orleans after a loss. i'm guessing that record is pretty good.
as long time subscribers know, week one is about finding two situations: 1) teams that should not be favored because they are relying on their name and/or last season's success more than current quality and are playing a team that very well might be the better team. KC and Stl were two for sure. TB was another (terrible bet by us) and 2) teams that should be favored but are just giving too many points for the same reasons. Pitt (we were too afraid to bet Clev), Chicago and NYJ applied here.
week two often provides three great opportunities. the same two above- there are still teams that are wrongly favored or giving too many points based on last season or flawed perceptions. but, you also get bettors who overreact to a very bad or very good performance in week one. if there is any week where you can't put too much emphasis on an extreme performance, it's week one. i haven't seen the matchups or the lines yet but teams to watch here are:
possibly undervalued: Stl, Jax, Dallas, NYG
possibly overvalued: Atl, Det.
ok, let's start with that. i'll be back periodically and hopefully i'll have some time for more in-depth game discussions.
good news and bad news this week.
good news: Hugh Jorman Sports ended his holdout last night going 2-0 in the monday night games.
bad news: i have no idea if and when i'll be able to get the bulk of the newsletter out this week, although we'll certainly have time for picks by sunday. so the newsletter analyses start the week on the injury report at highly doubtful. as always, anyone else is free to contribute any thoughts, trends, angles, smartass comments, shrimp/ray rice jokes, etc.
that being said, we'll leave you with this.
speaking of trends, we discussed the danger of betting road favorites in divisional games in week one. T6 tracked down a strong trend supporting this and both lost outright. T6, i thought i saw the artist formerly known as gilmosports post something about Sean Payton and/or New Orleans after a loss. i'm guessing that record is pretty good.
as long time subscribers know, week one is about finding two situations: 1) teams that should not be favored because they are relying on their name and/or last season's success more than current quality and are playing a team that very well might be the better team. KC and Stl were two for sure. TB was another (terrible bet by us) and 2) teams that should be favored but are just giving too many points for the same reasons. Pitt (we were too afraid to bet Clev), Chicago and NYJ applied here.
week two often provides three great opportunities. the same two above- there are still teams that are wrongly favored or giving too many points based on last season or flawed perceptions. but, you also get bettors who overreact to a very bad or very good performance in week one. if there is any week where you can't put too much emphasis on an extreme performance, it's week one. i haven't seen the matchups or the lines yet but teams to watch here are:
possibly undervalued: Stl, Jax, Dallas, NYG
possibly overvalued: Atl, Det.
ok, let's start with that. i'll be back periodically and hopefully i'll have some time for more in-depth game discussions.
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