Yellowtail at the bellagio...what can I say...sushi to die for
I almost gave the chef a standing ovation lol
Did manage to catch the last quarter there and was thinking about my post...the handicap at 54 and the potential middle had Nevada punched it in late..if so there would have been 58 points..
For the books a nightmare..risking a side by even putting a 56 out there just to balance the action...very funny at times..
Two missed field goals at the end could have made it 54 which is what I called or 57 if they both hit...a middle..pay under 58.5, 57.5, over 56, over 56.5..damn line was pushed to 59 and then back down to 56...actually yesterday it was a 55.5 at 7pm EST yesterday hours prior..that is what a sharp number can do to the bookmaker if he is just trying to "balance" his book..like I said..when Bob Martin set a line, he knew exactly the odds and there was no cat and mouse game that a sharpie could beat him at 7 days a week..then you took a position and he took a position...thing was you always paid the juice..
Now the advantage players can take two sides of the game or total, and put the book at risk..not exactly what they designed the game to be..
Now it's so funny, because even at the big places in Vegas, you actually have an accountant that sits behind a computer, and when he gets high a certain amount, the line automatically moves..no thinking behind it..no skill involved in taking a bet..just move the line and cross a few numbers, a who cares attitude I guess
Anyway just have a few moments before I go to bed..when I am in Vegas as most people do I have my (breakfast)cereal at 10pm and dinner at about 7am...then hit the sack till noon...but want to explain a few selections and my thoughts on the game...no one really cares but oh well
Here are the totals..
Alabama and Miss...total a clean handicap at 38 points (7 point variance but like I said will not be holding my breath here) 45.5 was the number and system play here also make this a position I took early...watch the number drop till game time..
Wisconsin and OSU...clean handicap at 40..variance at 15 but also a system play here to back up the numerical handicap..15 points variance is huge...but I don't think that will come into play...number is 49.5..another note if you are interested in the side...OSU is 7-8 and I'm wondering why they are 16..passing there though..
Connecticut and Pittsburgh...handicap is at 41..there variance is 7 points...I don't expect that to be an issue here..number has actually moved to 47 and I wish I would have waited....but looks like someone is wrong lol...
Marshall and Tulane...the handicap is at 36 with a 9 point variance...even with this variance you are still going under the 47 posted..
Western Michigan and Tulane...here is where numbers stop and I go against the grain...handicap is at 45 with 12 point variance..even with the variance you are looking at 57..well below the 60 I bet into...but here i am assuming Western Michigan puts up 28-31 by themselves...that will push the number above what was posted..
I will explain later why people lose by a half a point..but I hope not in this case..because i am on the over also
TCU and Air Force...handicap is at 33 points with a 11 point variance..fyi TCU handicaps at 2-3 if you are interested...I am not...total only here and not expecting a track meet in that cold ..
Florida and LSU....handicap at 38 points...9 point variance to the over...I am not holding my breath there with the injury and this doozy in Baton Rouge LA..
Utah State and New Mexico State..handicap is at 45 with a 9 point variance...system play on Utah State on the road and laying the lumber...
Sides..
Michigan State...looks to roll on the road by 14 points..watch the number move to 4.5 and higher as we approach..betting early is great, though in this case I don't think that will matter..
Georgia Tech +3...handicap from 14-16 points on the road grabbing three..4 hours till game time and watch the number drop back down with a buy back to the right side..
Idaho +3.5...handicap at 12 on the road catching the 3.5....
New Mexico State +12...handicaps from pick to 10 catching 12 points..
One more thing about line movements....in the case of Georgia Tech and Florida State..sharpies have pushed this number to 55.5 and waiting for followers to take it to that key number again...56....9 hours before game time for followers to jump on the bandwagon..should that number be pushed to 56...there will be buy back action..all of it and then some...I also will be on that game to go under 56 as it handicaps at a clean 42 with a 12 point variance..56 is my number that I will be playing...system play on Florida State at home to go under this number..
Oregon and UCLA...I am looking for 47..might find that in Jerusalem
nevertheless game handicaps at 43 with a 10 point variance...I am not that concerned with the variance...just getting a 47...most likely not but will keep my eyes open today..
Ball State and Temple...handicap at 43 with a 12 point variance...number is 47.5 and moving upward..but a few angles point to the under here...the numerical handicap and angle play looks decent here for the under regardless of the 12 point variance..
Ohio and Akron...total handicaps at 46 with a 10 point variance..usually with that kind of variance I am looking for all the pieces in the puzzle to come together..it looks like an under..but being close to the number with that kind of variance and not having the proper situation..I would not be suprised to see it close to the number or going over here..crapshoot here and I will pass..has a few angles to the under as well as the numerical handicap..but not all and very close to the number here..I thought about playing this but only for a few seconds...we shall see..
I just wanted so say a few things about line movement and how you can take advantage of this..especially when it crosse key numbers..
Case and point...W Michigan and Toledo has gone to 63.5...most places...This is a key example of why people lose...though I hope not today...my number was 60 earlier in the week.
Having or learning to make a line...you can discern which way the line will move...63 is a key number why would you bet over 63.5 when you could have gotten 60 earlier in the week? Unless you have the game in the 70s or 80s...which i think will happen ...
New Mexico State...Opened at 11 and false moved to 12.5 and then 13...hoping people would follow..not sure how many did...having a handicap on the game alows you to take the best number...my case 12..not the best but I took what I could and not follow a fake move with Utah State..
That was bookmaking !!
Tressel just needs to be examined if he cant guard against a fake field goal within the ten yard line
( They scored 56 in the first quarter I think)
But how i like to say...I am not holding my breath lol
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