Posted:
#76
yea.
I said fuck it and just made the bet just for 1 unit
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Euro 2008 picks thread....
Posted:
#89
Sunday:
Croatia -.5 -106 will be one of the biggest bets I make in the first round of this tournament - I just laid a chunk at pinny and have dribbled in since about -102.
Im going to write it up tonight but have to run out to dinner with the family - just wanted to give a headsup in case you wanted to get in early....
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Posted:
#91
Sunday Games:::
Austria vs Croatia:
As posted above, Croatia -.5 (to win) at -106 will be at least equal to my biggest wager of the first round.
Austria are only in this tournament because they receive an automatic bid as the cohosts like Switzerland. They didnt need to qualify and therefore have only played friendlies in the last several years - winning only 2 out of 17 of those friendlies - including a 4-1 home loss to the Croatians 2 years ago. Lets make no bones about it - Austria are the worst team in the tournament - and withuot the automatic bid they would be watching it on TV. Their current Fifa rank is 92 - not that fifa rankings tell you anything (USA was in the top 10 last year!) but it should be alarming that Guatamala, Qatar, Oman, and Iraq are all ranked ahead of them. Austria has done well in youth tournaments (knocking out the USA in the under 21 WC last year), but the big stage is unfamiliar to them as they havent been in any tournament in 10 years.
Croatia on the other hand is one of my darkhorses to do very well in this tournament. They are loaded - and although one of their best strikers (Eduardo) is out with injury, they should have plenty of backup. They cruised in qualifying in a very difficult group that included England, Russia, and Israel. England lost at home to these same Croatians on the last day of qualifying to keep them at home - so you know this side is for real. Im a little concerned that Croatia might not have punch up front to score enough goals to hang with the Germans, but they should do it against Austria.
I just cant see Austria hanging with Croatia for 90 minutes. As I stated in the original post - you try to handicap possession and chances and I think Croatia will have both. This usually leads to goals - but Austria would be absolutely thrilled with a draw here so they might just sit back and defend. I just cant see that working for 90 minutes. Once Croatia opens them up once, and Austria has to attack, then it will get worse - the key is that first goal and Im banking on Croatia getting it. I just cant see that any respect should be given to the Austrians and I think this line is so short becasue of home field advantage, and because Croatia is not a sexy name country (red sox and yankee syndrome). But make no mistake, Croatia will get out of this group. Croatia also knows that in order to get out of the group they have to beat Austria, because the Poles and the Germans lie ahead - and certainly a good goal differential wont hurt either.
Im predicting a Croatia 2-0 win, and my money is down at Croatia -.5 -106.
The second game is much tougher and will represent a much smaller play for me. Germany is deserved in their praise. They score goals in droves and defend very well too. This game is a lot like the Portugal / Turkey match - I wanted to find a reason to bet on the Poles but in the end couldnt. They are a decent side (like the Turks) but are simply overmatched here.
It is an opening round game so there will be nerves and some slower play, but like Portugal today the Germans should be able to totally dominate. They might win by 1, 2, or even 3, but they should win and depending on how good they play or want to pressure - could name the score. The Poles would be happy with a draw as Germany clearly is the toughest oponent in the group so they will defend as much as possible, but like the Croatia game above a German goal will open it up.
So my money is on a German win at -202 for a normal sized wager. I thought about laying a goal and lowering the odds to -120, but anyone who saw the Portugal game today knows that total domination doesnt always turn in to lots of goals, especially in the first game of the tournament.
GL all
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