Posted:
#1
I actually think the Heat can pull this off as long as Bosh dont try to be Larry Bird from 23 feet out or more...even though it might seem that the refs are slightly favoring the Heat in this series the Heat have only shot 1 more freethrow then the Thunder has in the series. But the Thunder have shown an uncanny resilience this year and especially the playoffs...
So... the -4 line in this game is a brilliant line set by the oddsmakers... they have done there jobs well as money will be pouring almost evenly on both sides and well... that is exactly what their job is to try and make happen. I dont think +4 is that safe to take though .... but in contradiction to my first paragraph im not sure I can trust Miami winning on Lebrons James supreme athleticism alone.
Then you have the over under set at another perfect line by the linesmakers.... reasons why I like the over 192 is first of all I love overs and always have... usually will play the over or wont play the over/under at all as I dont trust many unders unless it looks very tapable....
Reasons I like the over is fouls fouls and more fouls... lot of players who like to drive in on both teams... both are playing at a very intense physical level on both sides of the ball... fouls = freethrows... fouls also = making the shot and getting a freebie shot on top of it. Once again a lot of players on both teams who specialize in making the shot after contact . Another key to the over is Harden,Mike Miller, Sefolosha Daequan Cook, and James Jones.... lots of impact players that drive the ball in leads to people having to leave their man and allowing these sharp shooters to get open looks from 3 point land. Of course a good angle for the over is that this should be a close game leading to an extra 7-10 points in the last minute from fouls and what not.
In retrospect ... the under has value in the fact that no one has shot their threes well this series really... the Heat are normally not a team to write home about on freethrows in general as well. Its a playoff game.. the pivotal game of the series which could get offensively ugly and Kendrick Perkins will also be on the court. Also the over 192 line is 4 points or so higher then what I thought they would set the lines at for this series anyways....
I have a play in mind that I feel gives me the edge but not quite sure what Im going to play on this one... and I am running out of time writing this long boring writeup .... good luck to whatever you all (my penalty box buds ) choose if you decide to play this game
0
the game is Tuesday for fuck sakes... both teams are already at their location damn pampered athletes... fuck man if the game was tonight that would even help the Thunder even more .... I might buy out of the play now ... might not... I wanted some action tonight 
the other game I was likin tonight was the over 9 in the Brewers game and look how well that one is going 
and puts up over 100 and wins with tons of emotion just like they did in game 3 vs the spurs after getting told they were done after going 2 down. 
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