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NBA MON 031609 early thoughts - value hunting

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Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus10:

I gotta go with NO/HOU Under 182......In 2008 (they have not played in 2009)  5 out of 6 games went under 182....thats right only 1 game and it was @ HOU went Over 182.....Also HOU has a 5 game Under streak and NO has a 2 game Under streak...usually I would like the streak to end but what makes this look good is that the public (so far) is taking the Over and the line still drops...I know the game is a few hours away and the line may move some more and more bets will be placed and the public may be going the other way, but for now Under looks good and I hope it stays that way...

 

 
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Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by Forty7:

Ok one of the things i like to look at in these tight games and days is the public support on the side play. 
 
Denver is off the charts favorite by 13 or so.  Noway they cover 13 with 90% public support.  So lets say they win by 9.  Denver 107 and NJNets 98.  So what is next?  If you cap it at 208 as do I, we believe NJ will show up. 
 
Devein Harris is a great player but he is no point guard! Like Steve Nash a true point guard.  NJ covers and it goes well not Under.

 

just wondering where you got the 90% public on DEN?? I got 54-46 DEN-NJ...with 90% on NJ ML

 
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Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus10:

I gotta go with NO/HOU Under 182......In 2008 (they have not played in 2009)  5 out of 6 games went under 182....thats right only 1 game and it was @ HOU went Over 182.....Also HOU has a 5 game Under streak and NO has a 2 game Under streak...usually I would like the streak to end but what makes this look good is that the public (so far) is taking the Over and the line still drops...I know the game is a few hours away and the line may move some more and more bets will be placed and the public may be going the other way, but for now Under looks good and I hope it stays that way...

Wow, on the money analysis 

team=Hornets and o:team=Rockets and date>=20071231

you locked in?
 
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Posted: #154
dunkelindex numbers
Toronto at Charlotte 198
San Antonio at Oklahoma City 182
Portland at Memphis 184
Houston at New Orleans 189
New Jersey at Denver 207


 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by Forty7:

IMHO  the only two Under plays tonight that even warrnt discussion.
 
Bob's both travelked to get here.  Rapt's and Bob's would rather play defense.
 
Hornets and Rockets both under machines as of late.
 
These four teams are the opposite of the Suns Nuggets Warriors.
 
 
 
 

I can respect that...we have 4 hours to find that gem that calls one of these games.
 
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Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


Wow, on the money analysis 

team=Hornets and o:team=Rockets and date>=20071231

you locked in?

 

Thanks Ax..

I am going to wait a couple of hours to see if the line moves and the %'s change at all...but right now that pick looks good!

 
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Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by raindelay:

dunkelindex numbers
Toronto at Charlotte 198
San Antonio at Oklahoma City 182
Portland at Memphis 184
Houston at New Orleans 189
New Jersey at Denver 207



thanks rain...any idea how this is doing this year?  I know the service has a hell of a following but he's spread thin across all sports.
 
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Posted: #158
lol Ax i fade those plays too....they suck!!!!

so imo, i will fade em again...i will NOT play under Denver...way too low...Denver can score 120 anytime, so that gives NJN 84?? wow...

I can see a score like 111-99....and @204.5 my lean would be over....so i will stay away from this game cause i am 80% under player
 
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Posted: #159
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus10:

 

Thanks Ax..

I am going to wait a couple of hours to see if the line moves and the %'s change at all...but right now that pick looks good!


Zeus, you feel comfortable calling this the UOD?  These numbers are compelling to say the least!  We can wait and monitor the numbers but it's hard to argue against this and my #24 post


 
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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123:

lol Ax i fade those plays too....they suck!!!!

so imo, i will fade em again...i will NOT play under Denver...way too low...Denver can score 120 anytime, so that gives NJN 84?? wow...

I can see a score like 111-99....and @204.5 my lean would be over....so i will stay away from this game cause i am 80% under player

My thoughts also my friend...I have a heavy lean on NOT the Under in that NJ/DEN matchup.  It looks like a no brainer but we are afterall still guessing.  Why can't I get that book from "back to the future?" 
 
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Posted: #161
I'm going with the under on SA/OKC. and maybe under on Port/Mem.
 
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Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


Zeus, you feel comfortable calling this the UOD?  These numbers are compelling to say the least!  We can wait and monitor the numbers but it's hard to argue against this and my #24 post


 

I just reviewed that post and you are right, the numbers add up and I think we are on the most probable side Under 182....I will be locking this in shortly!

 
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Posted: #163
if +5/-5 points  than line they are ok
 
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Posted: #164
Quote Originally Posted by Hank55:

I'm going with the under on SA/OKC. and maybe under on Port/Mem.

BOL to you sir 
 
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Posted: #165
the only reason that denver total is so low is because they expect a blowout......and more than half of the time they r right.......look at that suns/warriors total......they threw in a number that would make the public bite low knowning that it was going to a high scoring game......
 
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Posted: #166
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus10:

 

I just reviewed that post and you are right, the numbers add up and I think we are on the most probable side Under 182....I will be locking this in shortly!


Thaks for the insight Z...I'll be calling my game later today if I have anything at all.  GL with this 
 
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Posted: #167
Quote Originally Posted by raindelay:

if +5/-5 points  than line they are ok

thanks rain...with today's card, every little bit helps.
 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by cricket2009:

the only reason that denver total is so low is because they expect a blowout......and more than half of the time they r right.......look at that suns/warriors total......they threw in a number that would make the public bite low knowning that it was going to a high scoring game......

Here's a good number to look at...DEN has been DD favs at home 6X this season.  O/U is 4-1-1 avg total 205.5 (higher than the current 204.5) and covers the over by an average of 6 points.  according to these numbers, the total lands on 211-212 tonight.  That's the 3 possession cushion I'm looking for.
 
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Posted: #169
WOW!!!!!!!!!
Little slow today  - rushing off to work.
Just noticed the 2.5 possession cushion you had on the SA / OKC under is now gone as the line has dropped from 189 to 187!!!!

What's most interesting is the 85% of people betting the OVER!!!

Hmmmm...............wish I had taken the 189 last night.
I figured a .5 point cushion off for axpiota59 would be good enough for me............
 
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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


Here's a good number to look at...DEN has been DD favs at home 6X this season.  O/U is 4-1-1 avg total 205.5 (higher than the current 204.5) and covers the over by an average of 6 points.  according to these numbers, the total lands on 211-212 tonight.  That's the 3 possession cushion I'm looking for.

wow! is Ax callin the O on the DEN game???!

 
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Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by BigWaveDave:

WOW!!!!!!!!!
Little slow today  - rushing off to work.
Just noticed the 2.5 possession cushion you had on the SA / OKC under is now gone as the line has dropped from 189 to 187!!!!

What's most interesting is the 85% of people betting the OVER!!!

Hmmmm...............wish I had taken the 189 last night.
I figured a .5 point cushion off for axpiota59 would be good enough for me............

It's a mess today Dave...enjoy your day at work, you're not missing anything with today's card. 
 
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Posted: #172
AXP....5dimes has the char-tor total at 194.Since you have it ending at 188,wouldn't this be a play since it's a 3 possession game.....unless you are counting 3 pointers as a possession.I think if it goes up to 195 on 5 dimes,it's definately a play.What you think?
 
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Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by collectNOW:

AXP....5dimes has the char-tor total at 194.Since you have it ending at 188,wouldn't this be a play since it's a 3 possession game.....unless you are counting 3 pointers as a possession.I think if it goes up to 195 on 5 dimes,it's definately a play.What you think?

yeah, you can never ignore the possibility of a three point play either from the arc or in an "and 1" situation.  That's why I consider 7 points to be the minimum value for a 3 possession cushion.  Sounds silly to some but it's just the way I've always decided my plays.  Let me add, as a reminder, that you shouldn't buy this number up because the value disappears and creating artificial value is no value at all.  Let the board dictate where the value is.  Lot of board watching for us today.  it may pay off , it may not.  
 
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Posted: #174
Quote Originally Posted by SlicerDicer:

Today's Accuscore as of 12:45pm EST:
 
Charlotte by 3.6 and 189
Portland by 2.7 and 185.7
NO by 7 and 184.6
SA by 8 and 187.8
Den by 9.9 and 208.1

 

Only change at 3:34 pm EST is Denver adjusted to 11.6 and 206.4

 
 
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Posted: #175
Did I just hear that if there were any Over players who mistakenly found their way to thos thread that they may consider playing the Over in th Den/NJN game?
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