thx guys - appreciate it 
upside - great call on ucla line
we felt there was a 85% shot it went to 6 before 3.5 but decided to just bite the bullet and take Utah +4 while we could. 5/5.5 dead zone for spread anyway. Would be shocked if it hit 7 without injury news but its possible - GL
basstard - Kansas analysis up next
t tech 17.5 Kansas (54)
this is a no play for me although we lean Kansas - actually have the fair line quite a bit lower - 13/14 range. yes Kansas not great but fat Charlie has them more competitive and keep in mind last 2 yrs when Kansas was 1-11 and 2-10 the games were 41-34 and 45-34. Kansas pass eff D ranked 11 mind you only played one qb with a pulse...just have no idea how good ttech is - think taking the points the way to go slight lean KU no lean total
next play
Rutgers / SMU over 54
Basics? Rutgers could get 40. SMU could get 30. Rutgers offense underrated, D overrated; SMU offense run/shoot 70% pass. D is garbage. 54?? WTF. Perception of Rutgers chopping wood when really they rob liquor stores and fall asleep covering receivers.
Further? SMU totals so far 64,61,55,65. throw the ball 70% of the time and have 3 WR with more than 250yds going up against 3 freshman CB this wk...1/2 the Rutgers team is decimated with injuries including lots in secondary, backups on DL, and best LB. We have no doubt SMU will score - Fresno is way better on offense obviously but they got 456 pass y and 5 td in OT win over Rutgers......Rutgers offense ? well star RB James out which is a big negative for the run game since the backup has yes 138 yds - which by itself means squat since he is the backup but also only 3.4/carry vs James 7.3. Rutgers is gonna need to pass. Down last week to Hogs came back nicely under Super Nova at QB....They have 4 guys with more than 10 catches and a good OL facing no pass rush. The ball may never hit the ground in this one...Bonus ? Well Rutgers is #1 in KOR including 2 guys with TD also good on
PR....good chance we get a bonus TD or at a minimum good field position.....other bonus - SMU gets top RB Shead back this wk although he has been injured and who knows what he will do....Rutgers D gave up 0 to a FCS team and 10 to EM but Ark moved it and Fresno is still scoring on them....SMU pass D gives up 8/attempt and only 1 int all yr.
Originally had SMU but once we missed the 7 decided taking the over was lower risk than SMU +4.5 since SMU while 15-1 home SU in conf games has a bad D 120th in T/o margin 108th in penalties and 120 in sacks allowed - totally conceivable Rutgers can win by 7 but we are definitely putting SMU on the A list ML parlay plays
mega
HOT CARL ALERT
Iowa +1.5
HOT CARL has slurped sucked pounded and steamed himself to a 3-0 record this yr
Can he go 4-0?
Once again - before you say Mich St D is awesome they are the play - we focus on context. If iowa was laying 3 we stay away.
Iowa -3.5 we play Sparty.
Its so easy to focus on one aspect of a game and be brainwashed we do it all the time but try and get better and taking a step back. Iowa's D is pretty good too and they have played at least an avg schedule so far - SOS ranked 85th on Sagarin. Get this - Mich St's schedule strength is ranked 168. yes. 168. There are 2 women's bowling teams ranked higher.
Mich St so far. 26-13 vs WMich. 115th ranked offense - crap D - won 26-13 scored 13 off pts. 21-6 over USF ranked 120 in offense -0 crap D - defense outscored offense. Beat Youngstown 55-17. way to go. Scored 13 against ND. Avg D - 88th ranked offense. Now we feel that while their D is excellent - COME ON - how can anyone really know how good they are given a)schedule b)no Gholston c)refs have caught on to their CBs raping WRs. They don't have a dominant pass rush. Ok so D is still excellent but their offense is wretched and consider WHO they have played. They don't have "that guy" to scare you. Cook is a decent runner - 5 td 0 int - but not gonna win a game at iowa. Iowa has decent QB - solid run game - Weisman 615 3td....have a tough WR to cover with 26 catches....Big play guy emerging Powell 4 catches 206 yds he just makes football plays on the football field with the football in football formations.....Iowa has scored 27 28 27 59 23 and think they have enough balance to score more than Sparty provided they are not -2 or worse in turnovers.
Finally comparing the Ds again - recognizing iowa is not as good - but sparty has played nobody.....Overall rank (1 vs 7 iowa) run D (2 vs 7th iowa)...3rd down D (3, iowa 8) I mean they are not that far off imo....Mich St also 114th in penalty yds. Last tidbit - Sparty is ranked 119 in plays over 20 yds this yr....not a single play over 40 yards. my god. iowa home field, better offense, D that will matchup just as well with the other offense. playing with confidence.
GL mega
thx guys let's do it
more thoughts
neb 10 Illinois
have the fair line right there....tough part about capping this game is the new QB situation at Nebraska - we don't have the local knowledge but 2 new guys looked good vs FCS team pre bye - this is illini first true road game...illini outperformed vegas 45+ neb -35ish....lean illini but just cant do it based on this could be turnaround game for huskers new life qb? slight lean over 60...prob no play on this one
Bama 56 Feces St
Not touching this. Georgia St is the worst team we have ever rated so 60-0- possible even with Bama scrubs.
VT 7.5 UNC
VT D is a brick wall - absolutely leaning that way UNC no shot of running the ball - Logan Thomas Sucks premium built into VT lines is still too high.....only thing stopping us - UNC last 2 games at VT were 3 pt games both ways....no lean on total 46 too low
CM 3.5 Miami Oh
No feel for this one. Both horrid - Miami beyond filth.
BC 13 Army
Last yr Army beat them - looked good last wk too....BC bad record covering vs losing teams....sandwich game too....lean army - would have leaned under 50 until army put up 30+ last wk got a bit healthier in backfield...prob pass on this one
Troy 3.5 S Ala
S Alabama big + to vegas line so far troy the opposite.....leaning troy based on explosive offense 2 headed monster qb but D is awful and turnovers ranked 117th....S Ala games decided by 1,2,7,7....would want more points - pass - total looks right at 62
Marshall 14 UTSA
have the fair line closer to 17....don't like laying 2 TD unless we see 20+ win and UTSA has proven they can at least hang so far backdoor and no backdoor....slight lean to over 65
ohio 5 akron
line looks right where it should be to us - Ohio injury report 7 pages long including a ton of OL...could be BS tho....Ohio still a bit of an unknown to us playing at Louisville and home to Austin Peay so cumulative stats a bit unreliable....Ohio has won 5 SU in row vs Zips.....gonna take a pass.
UAB 4.5 Fla Atl
total looks very low at 53 but F Atl pass D been very good and they switch QB randomly driving us nuts...UAB at LSU at Vandy skews their stats - blew game vs Troy not sure what we have here...lean Fla Atl but they have 5th road game in 6 games to start the yr ! some teams have not even played 5 games period....include FAU in ML wheel probably but cant go full unit
mega
Established in 1995,
THE BOOKIE
, so much I didn't even consider this one. Bad personal history here. 
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