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NCAA wk 6

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Posted: #76
MEGA- great picks. Haven't posted much, typically just read. In regards to the huskers, gotta say a no bet on the side. Illini put up some numbers last week, huskers coming off a bye week, with two quarterbacks looking to get some time! Our defense is getting burned, but Armstrong can actually run the option, his arm strength is there, throws a bit high, but still can get it to receivers.  Being a homer, lean to Huskers because of bye week and the decision making I saw against South Dakota St by our two quarterbacks.  However, I wuld lay off the side, and say the over is the only play for this game!  They will score on our defense, that is for sure! But I think we will have no problem scoring as well. GL
 
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Posted: #77
Any thoughts on tonights games?
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

next play

Rutgers / SMU over 54

Basics? Rutgers could get 40. SMU could get 30. Rutgers offense underrated, D overrated; SMU offense run/shoot 70% pass. D is garbage. 54?? WTF. Perception of Rutgers chopping wood when really they rob liquor stores and fall asleep covering receivers.

Further? SMU totals so far 64,61,55,65. throw the ball 70% of the time and have 3 WR with more than 250yds going up against 3 freshman CB this wk...1/2 the Rutgers team is decimated with injuries including lots in secondary, backups on DL, and best LB. We have no doubt SMU will score - Fresno is way better on offense obviously but they got 456 pass y and 5 td in OT win over Rutgers......Rutgers offense ? well star RB James out which is a big negative for the run game since the backup has yes 138 yds - which by itself means squat since he is the backup but also only 3.4/carry vs James 7.3. Rutgers is gonna need to pass. Down last week to Hogs came back nicely under Super Nova at QB....They have 4 guys with more than 10 catches and a good OL facing no pass rush. The ball may never hit the ground in this one...Bonus ? Well Rutgers is #1 in KOR including 2 guys with TD also good on
PR....good chance we get a bonus TD or at a minimum good field position.....other bonus - SMU gets top RB Shead back this wk although he has been injured and who knows what he will do....Rutgers D gave up 0 to a FCS team and 10 to EM but Ark moved it and Fresno is still scoring on them....SMU pass D gives up 8/attempt and only 1 int all yr.

Originally had SMU but once we missed the 7 decided taking the over was lower risk than SMU +4.5 since SMU while 15-1 home SU in conf games has a bad D 120th in T/o margin 108th in penalties and 120 in sacks allowed - totally conceivable Rutgers can win by 7 but we are definitely putting SMU on the A list ML parlay plays

mega

I like the play as it stands, but the weather forecast is 40% chance of rain and 20-23 mph winds. Could hamper the passing games for both teams.
 
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Posted: #79
upside - great call on ucla line we felt there was a 85% shot it went to 6 before 3.5 but decided to just bite the bullet and take Utah +4 while we could. 5/5.5 dead zone for spread anyway. Would be shocked if it hit 7 without injury news but its possible - GL


I got my + 7 bro !!!

conference dogs after a dog win as +3.5 to +14 are 28-0 revenging a road loss in weeks 3-10 as dogs of 9- pts, if opponent won last game at home as favorite.
 
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Posted: #80
Good stuff Mega...Iowa,when in the dog role owns, Mich st.,,,,,
 
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Posted: #81
Im liking utah too, thnkn i should parlay w WKY....thoughts?
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by Dledien21:



McCoy is a serious downgrade. He doesn't have the Arm nor the Feet that Ash has. They try to dumb down the play calling as well for McCoy. He just isn't even close to the same level as Ash. Lived in Austin for 4 years now. This McCoy got the wrong end of the stick for sure


Live around some serious horn fans, they beg to differ on MCcoy vs Ash, and with Ash out they become a better team. Ash's inaccuracy problems has plagued the offense, and with the firing of the D coordinator, they are somewhat fundamentally better on Defense.  As a sooner fan can only hope they let Mac stay
 
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Posted: #83
Good luck this week.
 
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Posted: #84

guys  thx a lot

train - FIU  

husker - GL this wk - think Neb can still do some damage this yr

howell - GL this wk  our thoughts on the games start at the start of the thread as we analyze them - we go based on start times - so weeknight games first - Hawaii last.....Re: your wku parlay - I think if you like Utah and can get 6 or 7 pts that is the way to go - the WKU game to me is priced pretty fairly now at 7 pts and to be honest - I wouldn't talk anyone off ulm now at that price

dr Strangelove - thx for info ya noticed the total dropped to 53 - checked weather you are 100% right - GL:

upside - nice call

mr803 - come on iowa

more thoughts

Georgia 10.5 Tennessee

you know how much we hate playing big favs with splashy qb/offenses and no D so gonna take a pass on Georgia - especially off a big win - and Tennessee well coached - good OL, good turnover margin - can run the ball. Obviously Georgia on paper should roll them but game not played on paper or by little people inside your tv

Toledo 20 w mich

have the fair line at 20 - was hoping for a lower line - Toledo been on the road a lot and think they can win by 25+ ....just no way you can play w mich imo - just too many pts for us

mega

 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by Huskerzfan4vr:

MEGA- great picks. Haven't posted much, typically just read. In regards to the huskers, gotta say a no bet on the side. Illini put up some numbers last week, huskers coming off a bye week, with two quarterbacks looking to get some time! Our defense is getting burned, but Armstrong can actually run the option, his arm strength is there, throws a bit high, but still can get it to receivers.  Being a homer, lean to Huskers because of bye week and the decision making I saw against South Dakota St by our two quarterbacks.  However, I wuld lay off the side, and say the over is the only play for this game!  They will score on our defense, that is for sure! But I think we will have no problem scoring as well. GL


I agree with what you're saying here.  However, keep an eye on the forecast.  Looks like Lincoln should miss out on the rain, but likely to be windy.
 
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Posted: #86
Indeed, a PLETHORA OF POSTED  PIGSKIN PROGNOSTICATIONS....
 
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Posted: #87

Michigan 19.5 minny

leaning to the dog here - but will need 21 to add it to the card - Michigan has owned their azzz lately but I mean 21 points? minny can run the ball and Michigan beat akron by 4 UConn by 3 - just sayin - minny well coached - problem is for us - we want to see more leidner at qb - and after a great game 2 wks ago they put in nelson again last wk and surprise - it was a s h i t s h o w. on our radar. total looks right

 
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Posted: #88

Tulsa 3 rice

what the HELL happened to these teams ??? my god if anyone can make heads or tails of this one - we are impressed. total looked really low at first - 57  - until we looked at it some more - bruuuuuuuutal. gonna pass

 
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Posted: #89
hmmmmm HOT CARL has me jumping on the Hawkeyes at home 



BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #90
Hey Mega.. new to your thread (unfortunately)

Is Utah the only play you are on so far or did you add Iowa +1.5?

thanks!
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

hmmmmm HOT CARL has me jumping on the Hawkeyes at home 



lets do it DOUBLE.......Iowa is a beast at home when they have at least an avg qb and a decent team - i think this one qualifies - especially since their top 8 RB are not out for the yr like the last 2 yrs

redsox  hey bud - have Utah +4 sadly got the worst of the line - smu under 54 - got boned again due to weather - and iowa +1.5 - think that settles at a pick em. GL

 
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Posted: #92
Iowa is currently a pick on 5dimes.. still recommend a play?? 
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Michigan 19.5 minny

 - we want to see more leidner at qb -

Yessir - as a "native" we agree on those sentiments, would not even be an issue to play this if he was....

 
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Posted: #94
Thanks mega! BOL this week!
 
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Posted: #95
Gl buddy
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by moosehunter:

Yessir - as a "native" we agree on those sentiments, would not even be an issue to play this if he was....

 

 
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Posted: #97

Quote Originally Posted by redsox5831:

Iowa is currently a pick on 5dimes.. still recommend a play?? 

 

hey buddy FWIW - i think iowa is a 66% chance to win SU. the randomness of turnovers, big plays, penalties etc...notwithstanding so i love it but its just another game for us so not playing 89 make believe units on it - GL buddy

 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

more thoughts

Georgia 10.5 Tennessee

you know how much we hate playing big favs with splashy qb/offenses and no D so gonna take a pass on Georgia - especially off a big win - and Tennessee well coached - good OL, good turnover margin - can run the ball. Obviously Georgia on paper should roll them but game not played on paper or by little people inside your tv

mega


My own insight to UGA/UT as a UGA Alum.

I don't bet UGA games strictly because I'm a UGA homer and adding money to the equation is not a good mix for me, HOWEVER...

1) while we will likely have a slow start due to the big LSU win, this is the best offense Richt has ever had at UGA.  It heats up like a microwave and we have NFL talent at WR.  Gurley won't play most likely but we don't need him.  Marshall and Hicks can tote the rock effectively.

2) I do not consider UT to be well coached.  If you saw that stupid trick play they tried in the Swamp, you have to question how that was ever considered a good idea.  GOOD COACHES DON'T DO THAT CHIT.  UT let South Alabama score 17 pts in the 2nd half last week and SA was driving deep in UT territory for a tying score when they got intercepted on a poor decision by the QB with 2 minutes left.  SOUTH Alabama, NOT the Crimson Tide.  The only reason they blew out WKU was 7 turnovers that were more giveaways than take aways.  WKU was coming off what was one of the biggest wins in their programs history.  I know Butch Jones won big at Cinci, but the RichRod experiment at Michigan tells us that winning the Big East doesn't mean much.  

While I am not betting the game, I think UGA rolls in the 2nd half and UT is left with more questions than answers.  IMO the only bet to make here is lay the points OR No Play.  If anyone just HAS to bet UT, limit it to the 1st Q or 1st half at most.
 
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Posted: #99

sscott  nice info thx man - GL - they should roll unless they have a turnover frenzy

b green 24 umass

have the fair line right on the number - if umass covers this number - to us - it means they are on the slight improve and on radar for future MAC games - pass for now

n tex 2.5 Tulane

we have the line at n tex 3....n tex the better team on paper just not enough to sway us on this one either way....Tulane been scappy and can pick up their 4th win ....no strong opinion on side or total

 
 
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Posted: #100
love the hot Carl Alert
Good Luck On The Action
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