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nfl systems for week 10

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Posted: #1
Road favorites with no extra rest after a road dog win of 6 points or less are 0-12 SU and 0-12 ATS if they are not playing in the same time zone as last week. -> go against Baltimore

In weeks 4-16,road teams that upset Pittsburgh last week while scoring 14-39 points are 0-21 ATS. -> go against Baltimore


Seattle +7



Home dogs of 2-5.5 points after a road dog win of 11-, are 29-3 ATS in at least double revenge situation if they were dogs of 2.5-11.5 in last meeting and lost that game by 20-.


Cincinnati +3




 
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Posted: #2
Winning favorites not off bye after favorite win SU & ATS in which they rushed for 226, passed for 209 or less, forced 1+ turnover, allowed 90+ passing yards and 24-165 rushing yards, and kept the ball for 25-37 minutes are 0-30 ATS in last 30 games played-> go against Houston.


Tampa Bay +3.5
 
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Posted: #3
Do you ever take favorites?
 
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Winless teams in weeks 9 and 10 are perfect 16-0 ATS if their last loss came at home, and if they have at least 6 days of rest since then. Last two seasons home teams in this spot picked up their first wins of season, Buffalo last year and Tampa in 2009.


Indianapolis +3
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Do you ever take favorites?


Yes. But just out of curiousity, do we have to take favorites to be successifull ? I dont think we do.
 
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Posted: #6
both balt and houston are the stingiest defense in the nfl right now, both ranking 2nd and 3rd to them 49ers sitting top at #1. 

I had strong leans on both of these defensive giants but you know my style.  It is either tail parte's projection model or no play.  In this case, I chose no play on my part. 

Parte can be a life saver guys.  Do not allow parte to say "I TOLD YOU SO" 

I'm going to find other games that is outside of his system model to play.  At least you can get that monkey off your back when you be watching them other games.  No offense in calling parte a monkey.   LOL


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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Partenopei:



Yes. But just out of curiousity, do we have to take favorites to be successifull ? I dont think we do.


No sir, you can make a ton of money strictly betting dogs, especially on the ML like last night on the Bears................

Just wondered because I have never seen you post a favorite, dont take offense to my question.............
 
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Posted: #8
Oh heck yeah...

my system projection also picked cinn and indy...

I just need a few more to make it a parte's parlay.   LOL

Give me more parte....supersize me...
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Posted: #9

your TB pick trends seem a little too situational, but the other 3 are def worth looking at

 

Thanks!

 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



No sir, you can make a ton of money strictly betting dogs, especially on the ML like last night on the Bears................

Just wondered because I have never seen you post a favorite, dont take offense to my question.............


You do make a good point. 

If you can crunch them numbers to pick dogs to win ats and maybe upset,  you can also do the same for picking favs...

However, if there is a fav that is strong with a system, big gigantic money will be flying into those fav I bet. 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Partenopei:

Winless teams in weeks 9 and 10 are perfect 16-0 ATS if their last loss came at home, and if they have at least 6 days of rest since then. Last two seasons home teams in this spot picked up their first wins of season, Buffalo last year and Tampa in 2009.


Indianapolis +3


Now this play here looks great................
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by BrownGem:

your TB pick trends seem a little too situational, but the other 3 are def worth looking at

 

Thanks!



the tb spread looks fishy.  A trap so of speak.  The public seeing how well tb slayed atl and no at home, they would like to play on tb again and again..  However, tb both home loses were against detroit and chicago, in their own house. 

Houston is a playoff material and not tb.  I think tb do have a shot because houston strong points are playing at home. 

Like I say, if something is up, no play on my part. 
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by Partenopei:

Road favorites with no extra rest after a road dog win of 6 points or less are 0-12 SU and 0-12 ATS if they are not playing in the same time zone as last week. -> go against Baltimore

In weeks 4-16,road teams that upset Pittsburgh last week while scoring 14-39 points are 0-21 ATS. -> go against Baltimore


Seattle +7



Home dogs of 2-5.5 points after a road dog win of 11-, are 29-3 ATS in at least double revenge situation if they were dogs of 2.5-11.5 in last meeting and lost that game by 20-.


Cincinnati +3




I like your posts; but, you have to admit that the reasoning for the SEA +7 pick seems a bit random and coincidental. I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm just saying that you'll find patterns in stuff when you are looking to find patterns.

If you put all games in a spreadsheet, you can find many "trends," that really only exist because you tweaked the categories to fit the trend.

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Partenopei:

Winless teams in weeks 9 and 10 are perfect 16-0 ATS if their last loss came at home, and if they have at least 6 days of rest since then. Last two seasons home teams in this spot picked up their first wins of season, Buffalo last year and Tampa in 2009.


Indianapolis +3



Road Fav off a bye are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games and 36-12 ATS since 2002.Fav off a bye since 2005 are 74-36 ATS!!

JACKSONVILLE

People cant keep chasing Indy.The Fav off a bye nagates and Indy bet.Too me its Jacksonville or no bet
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:




Road Fav off a bye are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games and 36-12 ATS since 2002.Fav off a bye since 2005 are 74-36 ATS!!

JACKSONVILLE

People cant keep chasing Indy.The Fav off a bye nagates and Indy bet.Too me its Jacksonville or no bet


Was gonna put the Colts in my parlays but now you got me thinking MJ.............
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



Was gonna put the Colts in my parlays but now you got me thinking MJ.............


Do allow me to resell

-the jags have not won an away game this season.  Well indy has not won any game, no matter where they are at. 

-the due theory, lets not go there.   LOL

-although the winless colts have not won a game, they did cover the spread in 1 of their many home games.  LOL

-the colts covers 2 games out of 8 as dogs.

-the jags are fav for the very first time this year. 

If there is a game that indy needs a win, it is against these bottom feeders like jags.  This is a do or die for indy to squeak in a win or fold all bets and becomes the winless team of detroit of them yester years.  Although detroit that one year was ATS eating machine though. 

I think there are better games out there to play though.  These bottom feeder games are just funny.  Although I'm rooting for indy to win SU this weekend.  Indy just might get their only chance at home, against a poor offensive group and getting the point. 




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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Partenopei:

and 24-165 rushing yards


I like your systems and admire your energy, but come on man....

I just looked through the AFC and 88% of all teams fall into this margin on a game to game basis. To be more accurate, wouldn't it be better to shrink this window rather than expand it?
 
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Posted: #19
yo p  what happen to your system last week
 
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Posted: #20
with you on cincy and tampa bay...good luck this week
 
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Posted: #21
  • IND are 0-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • IND are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.


    • The Jags win this game 17-10 in a low scoring affair!!
     
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    Posted: #22

    Quote Originally Posted by canadianboy416:

    yo p  what happen to your system last week

     

    small winnings in both nfl and ncaff. check it back and then start the trash talk. on my worst week i stil win money in both nfl and ncaaf and it is not good enough for some.

    I was crazy to post this info here in the first place. People dont like winners, and jealousy is a bitch. Some people just cant stand the success I am having and especially the views and replies I am getting here and on another forums. I post all this info for free here while there are people who pay for this stuff. Crazy crazy world we are living in. I will think twice before ever posting a single word here or on any other site any more.

     

    I AM OUT

     
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    Posted: #23
    bengals might win this sucker s.u. i'll wait till the line moves to 4 maybe even 5!
     
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    Posted: #24
    gotta like Sandy -6.5 on thursday
     
     
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    Posted: #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat36:



    I like your systems and admire your energy, but come on man....

    I just looked through the AFC and 88% of all teams fall into this margin on a game to game basis. To be more accurate, wouldn't it be better to shrink this window rather than expand it?


    I was being serious here....
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