ill use this thread to note some plays, get feedback and then post them sunday morning
games i like right now:
SF +5.5 - i have a man crush on JT...forgive me but he's known martz and the system for years and can be this year's kurt warner...why not? nobody knew who he was 2 games into the 01 season. Not high on the saints. Love Willis matchup against Bush or anyone else NO brings out of the backfield. Total at 48 even seems too low
Tenn - 3 - best D in the league, better QB, home team. this line should be 6 IMO. Tennessee is going to the Super Bowl led by that 2, the 3 rb's and collins making no mistakes. PUT IT IN DA BANK!!!!
KC +9.5 - really no justification for this outside of close to a desperate DD home dog in division. Broncos should win by 100 but they play the games on the field.
StL +9 - same as above but they arent rivals. no parrish is HUGE for the bills. he is their game changer. bulger no longer wants to play for linehan which is fine b/c he's pulled anyway
Jets -2 - cards fly to washington, then home, then back to the east coast for another 1pm game? schedule maker hates them. jets are desperate especially since the pats are vulnerable and bills have no roscoe for 4-6 weeks. jets put up 30 here
i like cincy also but dont think i will play it...browns are desperate but bad same with cincy. chris perry looked really good last week but they cant stop anyone
car -7 looks good but trusting delhomme to cover a td is very scary
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
9-5-2 YTD
ill use this thread to note some plays, get feedback and then post them sunday morning
games i like right now:
SF +5.5 - i have a man crush on JT...forgive me but he's known martz and the system for years and can be this year's kurt warner...why not? nobody knew who he was 2 games into the 01 season. Not high on the saints. Love Willis matchup against Bush or anyone else NO brings out of the backfield. Total at 48 even seems too low
Tenn - 3 - best D in the league, better QB, home team. this line should be 6 IMO. Tennessee is going to the Super Bowl led by that 2, the 3 rb's and collins making no mistakes. PUT IT IN DA BANK!!!!
KC +9.5 - really no justification for this outside of close to a desperate DD home dog in division. Broncos should win by 100 but they play the games on the field.
StL +9 - same as above but they arent rivals. no parrish is HUGE for the bills. he is their game changer. bulger no longer wants to play for linehan which is fine b/c he's pulled anyway
Jets -2 - cards fly to washington, then home, then back to the east coast for another 1pm game? schedule maker hates them. jets are desperate especially since the pats are vulnerable and bills have no roscoe for 4-6 weeks. jets put up 30 here
i like cincy also but dont think i will play it...browns are desperate but bad same with cincy. chris perry looked really good last week but they cant stop anyone
car -7 looks good but trusting delhomme to cover a td is very scary
total agreement on the rams, think that will be my top play of the day...after pulling one out of their ass last week(bills), i can see a road letdown against a team hungry as hell for a W.
dont like that titan play much though...nobody will run on the vikes all year...im not sure the titans have to the kind of weapons to exploit their secondary too much...i think this might be a good matchup for minnesota' defense but im not sure about the offense doing much...not quite sure but i would definetly lean taking the field goal in a potenial defensive struggle.
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total agreement on the rams, think that will be my top play of the day...after pulling one out of their ass last week(bills), i can see a road letdown against a team hungry as hell for a W.
dont like that titan play much though...nobody will run on the vikes all year...im not sure the titans have to the kind of weapons to exploit their secondary too much...i think this might be a good matchup for minnesota' defense but im not sure about the offense doing much...not quite sure but i would definetly lean taking the field goal in a potenial defensive struggle.
Solid looking card again KOAJ. Keep playing those Titans
I don't know the bet %'s but I bet there's a flood of money coming in on straight bets, parlays and teasers involving the Bills and Broncos. Both are young teams and I don't think they deserve to be huge favs, especially on the road. At the extreme worst I think you go 1-1 playing the Missouri teams. I'd play them myself but I can't trust the Chiefs and I've taken the Rams as 9 point home dogs 3 times in the last year and I'm 0-3, so screw em.
GL this week KOAJ.
I agree with Wall on something
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Solid looking card again KOAJ. Keep playing those Titans
I don't know the bet %'s but I bet there's a flood of money coming in on straight bets, parlays and teasers involving the Bills and Broncos. Both are young teams and I don't think they deserve to be huge favs, especially on the road. At the extreme worst I think you go 1-1 playing the Missouri teams. I'd play them myself but I can't trust the Chiefs and I've taken the Rams as 9 point home dogs 3 times in the last year and I'm 0-3, so screw em.
Is there a precedent on not traveling back home between games? I'm not sure that will help them, unless they had a curfew when momma'a away, the boys will play
Agree on KC +9.5, this is one of those games where you throw out the records. Denver struggles at KC period! They probably should win 42 -10, but i'm taking the points here.
Atlanta is like Cincy, you never know what team will show up. I'm taking Atlanta just because 7.5 is too many points for a team that can win this game outright.
Dallas giving 11.5, way too many points for this division game.
Also like Philly based on Mcnabbs play. He looks better then i have ever seen him. (assuming he's healthy)
I think Houston is done with all of the travel nightmares as well. 8.5 again is alot of points for a team that can win this game outright
GL
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Is there a precedent on not traveling back home between games? I'm not sure that will help them, unless they had a curfew when momma'a away, the boys will play
Agree on KC +9.5, this is one of those games where you throw out the records. Denver struggles at KC period! They probably should win 42 -10, but i'm taking the points here.
Atlanta is like Cincy, you never know what team will show up. I'm taking Atlanta just because 7.5 is too many points for a team that can win this game outright.
Dallas giving 11.5, way too many points for this division game.
Also like Philly based on Mcnabbs play. He looks better then i have ever seen him. (assuming he's healthy)
I think Houston is done with all of the travel nightmares as well. 8.5 again is alot of points for a team that can win this game outright
I say throw KC outta there and bet the Redskins. Then you'd be betting on a good team rather than the worst in the league. This is just such a down year for KC.
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I say throw KC outta there and bet the Redskins. Then you'd be betting on a good team rather than the worst in the league. This is just such a down year for KC.
This is not New Orleans/Washington partII ! NO/Washington the books were flooded with small bets on NO throughout the week and they never moved the line. In G.B./Tampa Bay the books were hit early with Packer money and adjusted T.B. as a -2.5 point favorite to a -1 favorite. Don't know who is going to win or what the right play is. These are two completely different situations.
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2/3 of the bets on Packers right now...
fits your mantra of unpopular short home dogs
this is NO/Wash part II
This is not New Orleans/Washington partII ! NO/Washington the books were flooded with small bets on NO throughout the week and they never moved the line. In G.B./Tampa Bay the books were hit early with Packer money and adjusted T.B. as a -2.5 point favorite to a -1 favorite. Don't know who is going to win or what the right play is. These are two completely different situations.
Male - some good points there, you're right the betting pattern is different since it opened at -2.5... I just meant it as the game has the same type of "feel"
I like my chances going against Rodgers on the road for the first time against a legit defense (Lions didn't count) and Tampa can score enough
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Male - some good points there, you're right the betting pattern is different since it opened at -2.5... I just meant it as the game has the same type of "feel"
I like my chances going against Rodgers on the road for the first time against a legit defense (Lions didn't count) and Tampa can score enough
I capped that TN line at -6 as well. I still am trying to figure it out. Two mirror images. I like TN, but can they throw it enough to really hurt MN? C. Johnson could very well give MN fits on the edge, though, and especially on screens. Team that can throw it a little probably wins. I will probably be on TN, but this one is a bit fishy.
I also am a huge JT O'Sullivan guy. Really impressed at Seattle for sure. I will probably be on them as well.
KC hasn't shown me enough even with +9.5. Ditto with St. Louis.
I lean Cards, but no play yet.
Great discussion as always.
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I capped that TN line at -6 as well. I still am trying to figure it out. Two mirror images. I like TN, but can they throw it enough to really hurt MN? C. Johnson could very well give MN fits on the edge, though, and especially on screens. Team that can throw it a little probably wins. I will probably be on TN, but this one is a bit fishy.
I also am a huge JT O'Sullivan guy. Really impressed at Seattle for sure. I will probably be on them as well.
KC hasn't shown me enough even with +9.5. Ditto with St. Louis.
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