Quote Originally Posted by Pandalicious:
I really think that you're going about this the wrong way.
If you want to be a successful and full time sports handicapper you should keep a day job.
Build a website, generate traffic to it, monetize it through product sales/advertisers and hopefully snowball from there.
If you are a winning capper (I'm not challenging the fact that you might be) then your results will generate interest.
Making $50 bets will not sustain you. If you absolutely insist on gambling the $2500 and making your way up from there the only way to do this is to go all in.
[2500 * (100/120)] + 2500 = ~4583
[4583 * (100/120)] + 4583 = ~8402
[8402 * (100/120)] + 8402 = ~15404
[15404 * (100/120)] +15404 = ~28242
With a bankroll of $28000 and a unit size of 2% (you are currently using 2%) you would be working with a unit size of $560.
This is enough money to sustain a legitimate income assuming you are able to be +2 units each week you would be making around $1000+ each week and a salary of $52000/year.
In all honesty these numbers may seem absurd but all you have to do is win 4 picks in a row at a -120 chance or less. This is perfectly within the realm of possibilities.
So your suggestion is to do a do or die 15-1 shot, followed by "winning 2 units" every single week of the year? This is the strategy to clear 50k in a year?
Jeesh.
Look - I get it. The guy is trying to make a living gambling on a 2500 bankroll. It is silly to even go through the math to disprove the assumption that you can "make a living" betting 50 bucks a game. But while your writeup sounds great - it is the equivalent on giving advice to win the lottery. It will sound great - until you examine the underlying details and probabilities.
First off, he needs to get past 15-1 odds on this four team accumulator you suggest. OK. Lets say he accomplishes this.
Then he has to make 2 units profit every week of the year for 52 weeks. OK. A 60% gambler would have to pick 10 games a week every week of the year to turn 2 units of profit.
Lets be more realistic and assume he is a 55% gambler. Then he would have to pick 20 games a week, every week, for 52 weeks. And he would have to average 55% without ANY significant downturns for risk of losing his bankroll due to not being able to survive variance.
It might sound like I am arguing with you - I am not - I think your post is well written with good intentions. I just doubt this obviously naive person is in full understanding of the odds against him pulling off your plan. But to be fair - I am not sure the odds are any longer than making a living on 50 dollar wagers either.
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