Robin Hoods: PLAY OF THE DAY

Posted record is 1-1 so i'll label you a HATER.

 

lol, not hating,,,I had a good college but bad nfl week...so I've been donating myself. But this game is a great opportunity to make it back with the bears.

Why are ppl backing GB? Their starting LT is hurt, Ryan Grant who accounted for 1200yds, 12tds last season is out. Rodgers can't do this alone on offense????

 

A moderator really needs to ban that douchebag who keeps spamming my threads.

Choi. What my friend told me was that this Chicago offense won't be able to accomplish much against this GB defense (even with a below average secondary). GB's offense is 10X better than Chicago's and that will be the difference maker (even with an injured RB and LT). This game should be a grind but at one point Green Bay and Aaron Rogers will break-out and push their lead to double digits and Chicago's offense will start backtracking. He told me this would be a double digit Green Bay win .. but take that for what it's worth.

GL tonight bud.

Detroit was a loss despite dominating the entire game, they just couldn't get those men on base home (there was nine MOB in the first three innings but only 1 run?). Cleveland exploded in the 5th with three homeruns and the rest doesn't matter. 0-1.

By the way, I know those hating are looking for a response out of me but i'm going to ignore all this nonsense in my thread and will assume that this happens for all new posters until they prove themself. I do this for a living so the losses are hard enough and when I see people trying to put me down because I had a loss, well, thats just sad.

I'm 1-1, but because of the +115 juice on Detroit a win tomorrow puts me in the positive (since I started posting here three days ago). You can't win them all but this is a marathon not a sprint (as you all know), so I just keep sticking with what I do and you don't have to follow but I'll show you guys what I can do. Find a handicapper that can match up with my results from the past five years.

2009: 198-143-9 [58%]  +94.60 units [R.O.I: 13%]
2008: 206-131-13 [61%] +158.12 units [R.O.I: 15%]
2007: 217-127-6 [63%] +179.53 units [R.O.I: 19%]
2006: 193-146-11 [57%] +77.35 units [R.O.I: 11%]
2005: 184-149-17 [55%] +44.81 units [R.O.I: 8%]

Robin Hoods Posting Record: 1-2 -2.42 units

Every wager is to win 2.5 units: which is equal to 2.5% of my starting bankroll.

'Taking from the rich and giving to the poor'

Robin Hood 

Robin Hoods Posting Record: 1-2 -2.42 units

Every wager is to win 2.5 units: which is equal to 2.5% of my starting bankroll.

Tuesday September 28th, 2010

New York Yankees -1.5 [-120]

'Taking from the rich and giving to the poor'

Robin Hood 

Robin Hood thank you for the positive contribution to Covers...  Everyone can use these reminders & it's great to learn from someone that is doing this professionally--  It always makes me wonder, because there are guys on this site that don't think it's possible to make a living off of gambling on sports, but that's because they're doing just that "gambling"....  The point that you take takes gambling to a different level of investing that most certainly will be profitable for you year after year... I think it all comes down to having a plan & executing the plan..  The reason the number is 2% of people win is such a fine line like you discussed in earlier posts, because of greed, lack of self discipline & self-doubt in my mind are the 3 biggest reasons people don't win long-term....

The one stance where i disagree w/ you is your plan being the only way to profit...  What i do like about your plan is that you have it mapped out, you know what you're doing & it's easy to follow--  That's what i love about your plan.  I will agree w/ an earlier poster though who said "if you can hit a higher percentage you are leaving profits out there by not playing more games..."  The catch is the more games that people play usually there win % goes down as well...

My best sports by far are baseball & basketball, I'm not very skilled when it comes to football & i believe it's all a numbers game....  In baseball I play a lot of games (8 games average per day) this roughly comes out to 1,450 games per year...  My goal is only 51%, because the average juice that I play is right around +125...  Baseball is a crazy sport & you don't have to be a very good handicapper to make money, you need to know teams, situations & be able to find value bets---  With an average winning percentage of 51% & average juice of +125, my record is usually only around 740-710, but i net 215 units (flat betting playing everything for 1 unit).....  So as you can see there is more volume of plays, but the profits made is substantially more than playing one game per day...

I know you could counter this w/ saying there is a lot more risk out there on the table & that is true, but that's where smart Money Management comes into play...  My plays are always 1% of my starting bankroll... 

I give you this example & the forum this example just as another example & another way that people can make money in the long-term....  I'm not bashing your way, i think it's a great plan & you've made money doing this & you're a professional gambler.  You have life on your terms & you're source of income is f/ the sportsbook...  I think each individual needs to evaluate there situation & make a PLAN.  Exacatly as you laid out, you have a plan, i have a plan--  We both have goals & they are attainable, measureable & the only thing that needs to happen from there is execution. 

I know this is a long post, it's late & I have a night job where I browse this forum to pass the time...  I came up w/ this MLB plan this summer where i really found there were ways to profit & i'm looking forward to executing it the start of next season--  Thank you for your contribution to this thread & for coming here looking to help others.  This is one of the better threads that i've read & i like your black & white approach taht you take to gambling..  It's all about having a plan, having goals & executing the plan.....  BOL Robin-Hood 

Thanks for the great post ldub04.

I'm sorry if it came off that I was trying to preach my handicapping approach onto everybody and that my way of handicapping is the only way to win long term. That is not the case, and not what I was trying to imply.

If you have an approach that wins for you longterm than you can live off your handicapping, no matter what that approach is (1 play per day, 6 plays per day etc.). What you do need though is patience, confidence in your plan, a strong handicapping approach (that includes flat betting all bets and never risking more than 3% of your bankroll) but more importantly TIME! TIME EQUALS MONEY!

What I mean is that advice is like assholes, everyone has one .. but they only have their own. They ony have their own assholes and they only have advice that implies to themself.

In every walk of life this is true: in comedy, music, art, handicapping etc. For example in comedy, if you're Dane Cook, a headlining stand-up comic, sure you can give someone advice to Joe Schmoe on how to become a stand-up comic to; but really Dane Cook is telling Joe Schmoe how to become like Dane Cook. There are thousands of different styles of stand-up comics and each one is individual, different, unique and that's what makes them good. You can't tell someone how to become like yourself, they need to go through their own life experiences until they become their own character or figure things all out. There may be 50 stan-up comics that are making as much money as Dane Cook is as popular as him, but really who's better when they all have a different approach to comedy.

The same thing applies to handicapping, it doesn't matter how you get that money .. just get that damn money. Whatever works for you, works for you but it it may not work for someone else.

So, i'll never tell anybody to follow my selections because really you need to wager on all of my selections and follow the guidelines that i've put in place for MYSELF. If you have a different approach that works for you then good! If my plays can help your approach then thats also good!

Everyone needs to go through the struggles, losing your bankroll from greed and lack of self-discipline if they wan't to live off of their own handicapping.

UNFORTUNATELY, lots of handicappers wan't to live off their own handicapping but never put a system of action into place. They lose their bankroll, then lose their bankroll again and so forth. Stop giving your money to the sportsbooks without thinking. Stop analyse your OWN situation. If you have 1000$ don't think in your head, "if I had 50,000$ right now I could live off of my wagers so i'll just bet a little crazy until I get to 50,000$ and then i'll start betting smart".

NO! Start betting smart with that 1000$. Put together a weekly goal, monthly goal and yearly goal (make it realistic to your own abilities). More importantly put together a ten year goal. Back to stand-up comedy, which i'm clearly a big enthusiast of, most stand-up comics suck for their first 10 years of performing .. but then they get to a comfortable place and things become easy. Look at handicapping the same way, don't look it as a way to get you out of your debt or a way to make some quick cash.

If you follow your own plan for ten years, the amount of knowledge you'll unknowingly absorb over those ten years is astonishing. By the time those ten years come, you'll have more than enough to invest in yourself and live off of your handicapping. Like I mentioned in the first post. I've been doing this 16 years now, but only professionaly for 6 years .. as I too took 10 years to figure my shit out. I had to work odd jobs and to be honest I was not a very happy person during those 10 years of learning process. Then again if you ask Dane Cook if he was happy during his first 10 years of stand-up comedy he'll tell you HELL NO!

Think longterm boys, put a plan into action or follow my plan (if it works for you).

Remember:

MAN MAKES THE MONEY, MONEY DOESN'T MAKE THE MAN!

NY Yankees win 6-1.

Robin Hoods Posting Record: 2-2 +0.08 units

Every wager is to win 2.5 units: which is equal to 2.5% of my starting bankroll.

Wednesday September 29th, 2010

I mentioned before that I divide my year into ten sections of 35 days. I also divide the 35 days into 7 sections of 5 days with a goal of 3-2 per 5 day section to keep my mind thinking in the present. So i'm finding the best bet on the board for Wednesday and will post it later tonight after i've placed it. I don't bet games with juice higher than -120.

'Taking from the rich and giving to the poor'

Robin Hood 

Robin Hoods Posting Record: 2-2 +0.08 units

Every wager is to win 2.5 units: which is equal to 2.5% of my starting bankroll.

Wednesday September 29th, 2010

Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-110)

Atlanta is currently leading in a fight for the Wild Card with San Diego, but not by much. Florida is knocked out of the playoffs and have looked terrible in the past couple weeks (scoring more than 4 runs just twice in their past ten games). Both Florida and Atlanta's offenses have been non-apparent the past ten games but Florida starts pitcher Andrew Miller who has looked awful in his six starts this season allowing 25 runs, 43 hits, 18 walks in 23.2 innings of work (never making it past the 5th inning). Derek Lowe gets the start for Atlanta who need this win. Lowe has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts and his numbers are better at home (he has only allowed 2 runs total in his past three starts). Florida's bullpen has been below average this year and terrible as of late while Atlanta's bullpen (in combination with their starting pitching) is why Atlanta is in postion for the Wild Card this late in the season [they've been possibly the leagues best bullpen].

Too much at stake for Atlanta to lose and with Miller pitching for Florida it doesn't bother me taking the Runline on a home team.

'Taking from the rich and giving to the poor'

Robin Hood 

Robin

Ive been reading ur post with interest,and if ur play wins tonight so be it.

BUT - I really think home team RL is a flawed betting strategy.

How many times do we see a team up 2 runs and a guy gets on base. Next thing hes at second - defensive indifference.

That says it all right there. They dont give a shit if they win by 2 or by 1.

Either way GL Sir.

Great insight and dicipline statigies, good to have you in the community. Look forward to your knowledgeable post daily !

Schredie I am well aware that when the road team wins they win by 2+ runs 80% of the time while when the home team wins they win by 2+ runs only 68% of the time (because of the exact reason you stated, of not having the bottom of the 9th inning if they're up by one). I don't pick run lines all the time, just when I see it as the best wager on the board between +130 and -120. In todays case Atlanta is the best wager on the board and with the reasons I expained in the post above: I feel very comfortable that if Atlanta wins it will be by 2+.

Game starts in 20 minutes, goodluck people.

I was luvin the play before you posted. Now we are both winners. Nice call and look forward to all your future posts.

 

Thanks

5-1 final.

Robin Hoods Posting Record: 3-2 +2.58 units [R.O.I: 20%]

Every wager is to win 2.5 units: which is equal to 2.5% of my starting bankroll.

Thursday September 30th, 2010

I'll have thursdays play posted later on tonight.

'Taking from the rich and giving to the poor'

Robin Hood 

Keep up the good work Hood.

RH Great write up!  I tell all my friends the same thing all the time money management! I've done that the past 3 years and have done well. Every now and then they want to wager big and sometimes i get through to them and they change their mind. End up saving them same cash. Good luck   this season may we all win and beat the books! 

 Stop by my NFL post that i put up each week and share your play(s) something i do on the side just to see how it turns out. 

I'll start posting my plays in brown so they're easier to find amongst the clutter.

Robin Hoods Posting Record: 3-2 +2.58 units [R.O.I: 20%]

Every wager is to win 2.5 units: which is equal to 2.5% of my starting bankroll.

Thursday September 30th, 2010

Cincinnati Reds -128

This juice is very heavy for me but this game and situation is too solid to pass-up.

With the season dwindling down Houston find themself way out of the playoffs visiting Cincinnati who clinched their division a few days ago, so it appears that neither team will put in an effort today. I don't believe this to be the case as all divisional matchups are important for the players, organization and fans. Houston is 5-9 against Cincinnati this season (1-1 in this series) therefore Cincinnati would top the double digit column with a win tonight, and put them one win away from 90 on the season. These milestones are important to the players, organization and fans. Cincinnati won game one of this divisional series on Tuesday, but they rested the heart of their line-up on Wednesday (Votto, Rollen, Phillips and Bruce). and Cincinnati wen't on to lose 2-0. These players will be back in the line-up today along with Laynce Nix (who was injured the past four games) and with some rest and more hop in their bats I expect Cincinnati to make it up to their fans and bounce-back from yesterdays dissapointing home loss. This is Houston's 10th straight road game (also their final one of this road trip) which is always a good situation to fade as the teams prepare and are anxious to head home.

Brett Myers has put together some above average numbers once again this year for Houston, but I still give the pitching edge to Cincinnati with Bronson Arroyo on the mound. All of his numbers are better than Myers besides ERA and in his last start vs. Houston, Arroyo helped guide Cincinnati to an 11-1 win.

Houston's bats are drained from this ten games in eleven nights roadtrip, between three different cities and it has been evident the past four nights not once hitting above .235 as a team (while Cincinnati has hit above .235 in 9 of their past 10 games .. averaging .292 vs. right handed pitchers during this span). Houston will struggle against Arroyo and Myers should struggle a bit against Cincinnati's fresh and strong bats, enough to have Cincinnati winning when Houston's bullpen comes into the ball game.

Houston's bullpen has been awful this year and have gotten worst as the season has gone on. Their WHIP, ERA and BAA have been terrible all season but especially in their past ten games (as only one Houston starter has managed to pitch longer than 6 innings). They are tired, unmotivated, and likely have the off-season, or the return home tomorrow, in mind (like the remainder of the team). Cincinnati's bullpen has been solid all year and have a WHIP below 1.0 and an ERA below 2.0 in their past ten starts (outstanding numbers).

With all that in consideration, a Houston win today would in my mind be a huge upset and with Cincinnati just at -128, i'll bite on the home favorite to win the series and send Houston home bitter. 6-2 Cincinnati win.

'Taking from the rich and giving to the poor'

Robin Hood 

Spectacular write up.

 

NIce touch!

Hood,. I have to admit you have a good philospohy -

steal from the books- give to the degens..

 

and one play- same unit each time. - you remind me of IN4U with your money management talk,  we will be keeping an eye on your merry picks

 

 

 

this guy has been a member since 2006 and he only has 56 posts

I have more than that in five days of being here.

Thanks for the nice words guys, goodluck Thursday.

Good Luck All!