Semi Final Writeup's and Picks

1) Uruguay v Holland.

When I first saw this line my reaction was not only take Holland but take Holland -1. Uruguay without Suarez, Holland the form team.

I have since had a rethink. Not brilliant capping from me here by any means but I think this game goes under 2.5 goals and here is why. Two teams no really expected to be here this far. Both teams are under the most enormous pressure. For Uruguay the controversy of Suarez's actions will plague them for next few days. There has been a huge outcry against them. This could have a negative impact on the team but I don't believe it will. I think in a way it will even galvanise them even more. Us against the world type of attitude.

Uruguay have for the most part, been strong at the back. With the occasion (so much at stake) I expect them to play very much like Paraguay did tonight and keep the game close, for as long as possible. The Dutch looked good in attack in the group stages but against weak teams defensively, let's be honest here. Against Brazil were not very creative. A Flukey first goal and a set piece second goal. Add this to the fact Suarez is not around, I find it hard to where the goals will come from for Uruguay.

I think the pressure of the occasion and the fact Uruguay will go back to their old negative ways means I will be playing the under 2.5 goals here @ -180. I am not as confident as I was about tonight's under, because an early goal for Holland could see them coast this game, but when you add everything up I think this is the best play for this game..I wouldn't tail me big here. I think there is a futures bet that has far more appeal. See below..

2) Germany v Spain

I am the wrong guy to be capping this game. I have been down on both teams chances all along, and now I truly believe the winner of this match will win the world cup. Truth is I haven't a clue who is going to win it. Spain are European champions and beat Germany in that final. Germany have been the form team so far. So how you can confidently cap this game? In truth I can't.

The +200 on both of them to win World cup outright is tempting to take a stab, because however wins will start off quite warm favourites for the final. I am not going to back bets on guess work, so my plan will be to bet big on the winners of this match to lift the trophy (sadly at far worse odds then the +200 right now). I hope Holland beats Uruguay as I will get a better line and that is what I am banking on.

The game itself is fascinating. If Germany starts off the way it has been, then I could see a game where they lead 1-0 till about 5 minutes to go and get a 2nd breakaway goal to win 2-0. Still, I can't get away from history. Germany have been in so many games at that stage of major tournaments that have had nothing but drama. I think Wednesday will be the most dramatic night of the world cup so far and I think it takes longer then 90 minutes to sort these 2 out. My play on this game will be Germany and Spain to draw @ +220..Will also play a small saver on the game to go to penalties @ +900.

If I had to pick to qualify I would lean towards Spain, but no way in hell I would back it. My plan will be to bet big on the winner to lift the trophy. If I can get around -225 for that bet I would be thrilled, but I need Holland to win and maybe win handily (which screws my first bet above)...If I get -300/-400 I will have to think long and hard.

Nice and Early..Good Luck with your plays

Adding:

1) Card index bet > 60 points.. @+150

Yellow Card=10 Points
Red Card=25 points. 90 Minutes Only..

I think Uruguay reverts back to type here. I think without Suarez they will crowd the midfield and try put the Dutch off their Rythm. Uruguay have been known as a tough physical team(s) in the past and I think they revert back to that tonight. If Holland doesn't score early I think the under has a great chance of hitting.

2) Spain to win the world cup @+190. I have been back and forth with this. One of the best cappers I have met has put 75k on Germany and I see many good cappers on covers have gone Germany too. Add to the fact I have lost nearly 30k backing against Germany the past 2 games, then I truly must be an idiot to do it a 3rd time.

Game Breakdown: These nations have met 20 times, Germany have won eight times, Spain six and there have been six draws.
Spain will be playing in their first ever World Cup semi final.
The last encounter between these two nations was in the Euro 2008 final that saw Spain win 1-0 thanks to a Fernando Torres strike.
Germany are unbeaten against Spain at the World Cup, winning twice and drawing once.
Germany have scored the most goals at the 2010 World Cup (13).
Germany have scored four goals in three games at the 2010 World Cup, the only nation to have bettered this in a single World Cup is Hungary, netting at least four goals in four different matches in 1954.
Thomas Müller has now scored four goals from four shots on target in this tournament.Good thing he is not playing!
All 14 of Miroslav Klose’s World Cup goals have come in open play and from inside the box, and half of them have been headers.
Klose needs just one more goal to equal Ronaldo’s record of 15 World Cup goals and is currently level with Gerd Müller (14).
David Villa has netted five goals at this summer’s finals, equalling the all time Spanish record in a single World Cup (Basora in 1950 and Butragueno in 1986).
David Villa is Spain’s top scorer in World Cup history with eight goals.
David Villa is just one goal away (43) from equalling Raul as Spain’s all time top scorer (44).
There has never been a 0-0 draw in a World Cup semi final.
Xavi has completed more passes than any other World Cup 2010 player (404).

HHmmmmm The good cappers say Germany, the stats point to Germany so why am I fading all of this? I am simply playing on the value here. Spain were only +450 pre tournament and now with two games to go they are +190 (with Brazil and Argentina out). I have had a quite simply a monsterous week between MMA and especially Tennis, so I can afford to take a gamble here and I am going against myself previously when I said "but no way in hell I would back it". I truly believe the winners of this game will win it out. I am convinced the value will not be good in the final and that I will be betting big amounts on bad value. A big NONO for me.

Ok so why am I picking Spain. Well Spain has been one of the top teams in the event when it comes to passing precision and ball possession. If they get a lead, they can be very hard to break down defensively. This makes the first goal in this game a HUGELY important one. Germany have looked so impressive the past 2 games. They have gotten off to fast starts in both games. They then defend very well and hit on the counter attack with devastating effect. If they score first it will probably mean my bet is screwed. But if Spain scores first, It will be interesting to see how Germany cope. The one time in this tournament they went a goal down they didn't respond too brilliantly. They haven't been asked a question in the the knockout stages in this world cup. It's almost looked too easy. I am pretty sure the Spainish will provide this team with by far it's biggest test. How Germany react will determine the outcome of this game. Muller is a massive loss here..I think it's only when the game is over will we see how much.

Back to the game. The Spaniards will be more cautious in this match and try everything to prevent Germany from keeping much possession knowing well that they cannot match the pace and agility of their rivals with the ball. On the other hand, the witty Low (who I badly underestimated against Englans) may have a plan or two of his own to surprise their highly rated opponents. It will be very interesting to see how both teams approach the game. We’ve definitely seen talent alone is no match against teamwork so the balance has tilted Germany’s way ahead of the semi-final encounter and I understand this. Spain will have to come up with something else than their current style of playing if they are to avoid defeat and make it to their maiden World Cup final appearance. So far they have just done enough in the knock out stages. Teams that keeping winning 1-0 as history has shown us are very hard to topple. I have a big hunch they will have just a little too much for Germany. I am taking a gamble on that hunch. Won close to 80k on Nadal so hopefully his Spainish buddies can bag me an extra 30k now that I can bet again!

FULL PLAYS!

1) Playing the under 2.5 goals here Holland and Uru @ -180.

2100 to win 1200

2) Spain and Germany to Draw @ +220

500 to win 1125

3) Uruguay + Holland Card Index > 60 points @ +150

400 to win 600

4) Spain to win the world cup @ +190

16k to win 30.4k

Missed on a few small one's last night. As fans of my picks know I made alot on Nadal last weekend and I have bet over half it on Spain between 2 bets..

1) I have 16k for Spain to win world cup..

Just added

2) Spain to qualify @ evens 25k to win 25k..

Lets do this!

No need I am ten times better then Van. I am the best. Keep hating but look at the picks. They speak for themselves