I agree with just about everything you said Gamble. The only part I disagree with is businesses as usual w China. Trump still has tariffs applied, far from anyone's mind, but he also campaigned on China abuses . Here's believing he puts the hammer down on China. Let's send them a bill for all the deaths and costs incurred. How much do we owe them in debt payments ? Trust me, this is going to get very interesting if Trump wins re-election.
I dont get you two...
Trump has done nothing, zippo nada to China, China has played Trump from the start and they are so far in front of his little mind that he has no idea how badly they played him.
These tariffs are not punitive to China, they are punitive to the US consumer pretty much completely. Trump is only about himself and those elite surrounding him. He is a phony and four more years with him will do nothing to change that.
How about you try and and provoke China, so far they are not concerned about Trump...if China were even remotely worried they would start selling treasuries and US investments...THAT would tell me they were even remotely worried or threatened.
Trump was at least trying to get America a better deal. Yeah, in hindsight it sure looks like he got played, but China is just pure evil. They will play everybody. Forever. Until the end of time.
Did I mention how much I hate China right now?
What a shame that phase one turned out to be such a scam. China knew prior to signing that a storm was coming and had out clauses in the deal specifically mentioning world pandemics and acts of God. China has proven itself to be the ugliest and deceitful negotiators.
I think it is safe to say this thread has perished. It's dead. To think that China will ever negotiate in good faith, EVER, would just be thinking like Charlie Brown when Lucy holds the football.
I disagree with both of you guys , here. This is not over by a long shot. How can it be ? We already had economic issues with China before the Chinese Virus. Now, we have 40k+ people dead in this country alone (and counting) due to their irresponsibility in handling a virus. Had China acted like the global leader they so desperately seek from the world community, then this pandemic never would have become one. Did you guys just see Missouri is suing China. Lol. I know, funny . But how many other companies, cities, states, etc. will follow suit. Germany just filed one this week, too. This is all "symbolic", at least the one from Missouri. The only one that has the capability to do something about this is Trump. People in this country WILL rally around a forceful response to Beijing. What form will this take ? Who knows. But China IS the Paper Tiger, and will go to great lengths to protect the "facade." Lying, cheating, stealing, killing, of their own people is part of the CCP playbook for complete control of the people. No one is pushing for a military conflict, but China sure is itching for one with this Pandemic they allowed to get out of control (did they stop international flights?), and their militarization of the islands in the S. China Sea. One of their ships literally ran over a Vietnamese fishing boat a few weeks ago. Nothing new there. Been done many times already. Did anyone in the media even care about their actions ?? I read it in the WSJ.
A final note, I am sure Trump will wait to do anything antagonistic until U.S. pharma companies and critical material providers start doing manufacturing in other countries/this country. I am sure this is taking place as we speak, because once we further rattle the China cage, they will shut off this critical manufacturing needs, immediately.
I still haven't heard anything about this from anyone else. If there is any shred of truth to it, the response from the U.S. can only be more forceful, right ??
A UK reporter, Daniel DiMartino, broke the story. She went on UK news and did a live bit. It's out there.
Much of this gets down to what you can believe, but she seems credible on the "world pandemics and acts of god" provision in the phase one deal. If she's right about that, she's right about the rest.
The Chinese New Year... Jeezus , don't even get me started. 10s of millions of people travel the country during this time. The Chinese Communist Government couldn't have planned it any better if they were trying to "infect" the rest of the world. They let several big festivals go on in Wuhan while the virus was spreading (all with their complete knowledge as we now know).
Given the headlines, looks like almost a given that we will put additional Tariffs on China. I hope Tim Cook is exploring alternative production sites besides China. His company has largely gotten a free pass so far w/ the Tarriffs. I'm not sure how many more exclusions he can expect given the deteriorating relations w/ China. I for one would wish the international community would come together for a unified response against China... Australia, NZ, the UK, Germany, the U.S... those are the ones that have spoken up so far against China that I'm aware of ...
Rush,
You have to be joking about the Apple comment...come on you know Apple is 1000000 steps ahead of the dinosaur USG and Trump's fake tariffs. They have a billion ways around any restrictions that can be by moving China opps to another similar country not on the hot list or having Chinese finished goods shipped magically to another country and viola Apple has ZERO impact and tough guy Trump gets to continue with his fictitious tariffs.
Corps are light years ahead of any of this, the real payee of the tariff isnt China or corps, its the little guy.
I already mentioned here or in my thread that Apple employs millions of employees by way of Foxconn. No other country has the population of China, and India is not an industrious nation in any capacity. Sure, Foxconn can subcontract the work to a hodgepodge of other Asian countries to pick up the slack from China, but these are logistical challenges that will cost plenty of money to Apple. Investors are Ill prepared for what's coming .
And I don't think the game of China shipping goods via Taiwan or other Asian country is going to work much anymore. They have few allies in the region to pull their shenanigans any longer.
Well test your theory then...can you see if Apple has any margin pressure this year on sales of goods that are made in China? I have not seen any mention of margin pressure on any of their products but if you have any info that would be interesting. Trump did these fake tariffs this year so if they were real and corps werent working around it then margins would be worse...no way to avoid it.
Does anyone here believe that China will negotiate anything in good faith?
They never have.
Phase 1 was proven to be a ruse negotiation with the virus springing to life behind the scenes.
If the world gathers against them and imposes fines or penalties for the Coronavirus, will they comply or simply ignore the sanctions as they have done for as long as we have all lived? The world needs a better way of doing things.
Anyway, I'm off to the golf course and sunny 70 degree fairways and greens where the virus gets vaporized by the sun....and if not, I will mix some disinfectants with my sunscreen!
Yeah the whole thing is a political ploy and nothing more. Trump thinks people are dopes and will fall for his fake tariff scam and that it actually has an impact on US jobs...it does not.
How about this...why are we talking about pennies on the ground when we are seeing trillions of dollars flying in the air? We are worried about jobs being taken from China but the wealth of middle and lower class America has been on the decline since 1990, our median income families cannot make ends meet let alone make savings for a better future or to invest. Why are we worried about China when our own country is economically dying? If we were to bring back manufacturing jobs that people really do not want to do in the first place for the rates of pay offered that China is performing all that does is bring that much more inflation with it. So that cost is passed on to the consumer anyway and the net impact is minimal. Why are we focused on dated employment jobs when our government and population are swimming in debt and unable to save or start a business, to grow wealth? Trump knows people are stupid sheep and want to blame China for their woes when in reality we are to blame for our woes and people do not want to make the tough choices that will bring them the greatest reward.
I'd rather see the government take a proactive approach to building the economy and investing in people and starting businesses instead of fake attacks on China. If Trump really wants to stop China then stop the import of products from China...tax corporations, domestic corporations who import goods, not the country itself. Tax the producer and seller...that would have a greater impact even though in reality it would not because if you tax Apple then they just bump prices and the consumer pays that anyway. The only way to change our course is to penalize exportation of production and importing goods and REWARD domestic production and exportation of goods.
These are my thoughts on the coming challenges for AAPL. And margin pressure doesn't even enter the immediate equation since another Asian country could likely produce cheaper goods than China ( besides Taiwan). Coming from the tech world where our goods were made in Asia does give me some insight into overseas production . Transferring production to other countries would be a lengthy and costly process.... but they "may" make it up on margin later in cost of goods sold.
No way, no how will they ever negotiate in good faith. That much appears certain . The CCP's propaganda machine has been working overdrive these last few weeks, too, even taking a jab at the UK for their past "colonial" empires, a reference to Hong Kong .... another potential flashpoint again in the months ahead.
Hopefully you had a good golf game Gamble... I'm hitting the green next Sat.
I gotta think there are many players who would gladly open up shop for them at little to no cost. Apple has gotten accustomed to having production facilities paid for or greatly subsidized at home and abroad because of the jobs it brings to the area. Its disgusting really that corps can take advantage but they do and so I would expect that Apple could completely move all opps if they needed and likely experience little production delay or margin pressure. I'm sure if it fit their narrative they could come out and tout how they are leaving a certain area due to human rights abuses or to support the US initiatives blah blah blah...
I was listening to the Sirius/XM news on the way home from golf and they had a Chinese diplomat on spinning some tail about how the USA smuggled the virus into China. He was quickly hit with news to the contrary by the interviewer and the "interview" turned into a shouting match broadcast to anyone with a radio or a TV.
The disinformation is getting a little nuts.
Yeah, I think you're right Wall about other/countries that would lay out the red carpet for Apple. I know we're getting way ahead of ourselves on this topic for the time being, and Tim Cook hopes he never has to seriously consider moving production to another country.. but it's gonna be real interesting to see how much further our relationship w China deteriorates..
My 2 cents on this entire situation? I would advise Trump or whomever else has clout to play nice with China for now. The vaccine is the key. China has a huge head start (at least 8 weeks) as far as the study of the virus. Logic would dictate that China has the best odds of discovering a legit vaccine before any other country.
We already know if the USA or Europe or many other countries were to develop the vaccine first it will be shared with the world. Can we depend on China to share the vaccine technology if they discover it first?
That's a huge question, no?
Play nice with China until the vaccine is found. Then bring the hammer and point fingers.
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