Record: 9-14
It is important to dispel a very common notion about the NIT tournament made by the apathetic capper.
And I call them apathetic because they typically look to 'big games' and the limelight when they cap. Why? They want to watch the game on ESPN and they want the excitement. That is why you never see me cap Duke or UNC.
This can be costly because the lines on those games are usually ultra-sharp (look at the Wisconsin over Florida +2/+1.5 line!). The further you regress from the main feature, the better the spot and the lines. And I think we get a good line here. We are going with UCF.
Relevant points:
1. "This tournament is meaningless. How do you know these teams are motivated!"
This is a farcical statement when it comes to certain teams, particularly these two.
Syracuse, a proud tournament franchise obviously regards the NIT as table scraps compared to the Bid Dance and were dispatched in the first round to prove it, but I need not recount the history of these two programs, of which success is largely non-existent.
Before this year, UCF had TWO tournament wins...except it was in the College Invitational Tournament over Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure. They've been handily dispatched from the Big Dance 4 times. They went to the NIT once ever and lost in the first round to Drexel.
This is a very big deal for them. It is far bigger than making the tournament and getting crushed by a team like Kentucky.
TCU has had far more success in the Big Dance but their last win came 3 decades ago. They have some NIT wins under their belt as well but most of that also came 2 decades ago. This is program that has a hard time even being recognized or funded by the school. They have never made a Final Four of any kind.
Both these teams regard this run and this next game as a platform to future success, recruits, investment and notoriety.
It most certainly means something. For me to copy and paste all the quotes from team members and coaches as to why this is is to waste your time and mine. The quotes are there and it is quite evident.
Establishing meaning for a game (be it honoring the deceased or a revenge game or a playoff game, etc.) is the first and most important prerequisite to have an expectation from your team. That is why I bet the NBA so much less. They won't come to play. A guy scores 70 points and his team loses by 10. Please. That could never happen in the history of college basketball now and forever.
Without meaning, if you are not compensated more than generously on the spread, you cannot depend on teams to respond. They will here. Both sides.
What is UCF offering us?
1. UCF's Defense
Obvious? Yes. But oh so good. And it's time to discard the idea that these defensive stats were all accrued in the lowly AAC. This is an tremendous defense. Defense is important because it translates into effort. When a team shows effort, they care.
And UCF, down this stretch of the season, has been showing that effort every game.
How good are they?
1st in the country in FG Defense
5th in the country in points allowed
21st in the country in 3 pt defense.
What more do you want? It's all there. On one side of the ball, this team is swarming the other, wearing them down, hawking them, making them earn each and every point. You do not need a stellar offense with that kind of defense.
How good is their interior defense? In the Illinois game in their most important game in forever, Illinois did not score a two point FG until 2 minutes left in the first half.
5 threes and 15 points only for the first 18 minutes of the game.
Why was this?
2. Tacko Fall
7 feet 6 inches.
The Knights’ defense is anchored by Tacko Fall, a 7-foot-6 sophomore who is the tallest player in major-college basketball and the American Athletic Conference defensive player of the year.
Fall has averaged 11.0 points, 9.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game this season. He stands seven inches taller than TCU forward Vladimir Brodziansky, a 6-11 junior who leads the team in scoring (13.8 avg.) and blocked shots (2.2 avg.).
Folks, Andre the Giant turns his chin up to this man.
He is nowhere near sensational on offense but is efficient when he has an open look.
On defense he is the ultimate rim protector and rebounder. If there is an errant shot, he's getting the rebound. If you watch him you need to go around him or draw him to the perimeter. Shooting over him with floaters leads to little success and he'll have your miss seconds later.
So DISRUPTIVE is Tacko Fall, TCU is simulating his low post defense WITH BROOMSTICKS in practice sessions, per Jaime Dixon. I'm serious.
Do I love the creativity from the coaches? Yes. Do I want to bet that such a simulation is meaningful? I can't bet on that. And how much practice can you dedicate to what amounts to a local protest against a political candidate with all but the cardboard missing at the top of the stick.