The much too soon CD Newsletter - Week 1

As per traditional, we honor our fallen hero Club Dirt by keeping the Newsletter alive until his resurrection.  I will try and keep write ups to a minimum since we still have another week of Pre to go and many more injuries to avoid.  Lets get the discussion going            Will be working off current lines/totals     not openers 

- Lions at Chefs  -6.5  (54.5)

Lions are the sexy pick to win the north this season and rightfully so.  Lots of question marks around the Pack and ODB's as well as Minny's inconsistency in games and on D.  Thank you schedule makers for giving us this game to start the season that can't get here soon enough.  Lots of weapons on both sides of the ball mainly on O.  Lean over and why wouldn't you in this one? 

- Panthers at Hotlanta  -3  (42.5)

Good luck to the "young" and green Bryce Young with this atrocious O line.  We've seen in the pre and last season this line will struggle and with a rookie QB that spells disaster.  Falcons had a surprising hot start last year and upgraded their run game with arguably the best NFL ready back in Bijan.  Still question marks out there on Ridder but a full offseason and half of last season under his belt should help him take the next step.  Division games, especially this early in the season, are always tough.  Lean under here. 

- Texans at Big Reds  -9.5  (44.5)

IMO Stroud will be the first bust out of this class of QB's. He literally landed in the worst position but thats the NFL.  Good luck to him but THE Ohio State U made him look way better than he actually is and with little to no weapons and a so so O line it should be a long year for the Texicans.  RSW for them is 6 and juiced to the over.  I can't see this team winning 7 games in a much improved division.  Lots of optimism surrounding the Ravens this year and I'm starting to buy in TBH.  They are healthy for the first time and surrounded that Nappy headed hoe with tons of weapons that I can't not see them having a very successful season and playoff birth.  After that who knows.  As for this one, I still lean on taking the points since crazy shit happens in week 1 almost every year and maybe they need a week or 2 to gel.  

- Bengals at Brownies  +2  (47.5)

Question surrounding if Burrow will play has me leaning Browns plus the points here.  However, I'm hearing reports he's trending in the right direction.  If he sits, this game goes to a PK.  Another division opener with 2 teams with high expectations in a very tough division so even with all the weapons here I lean to an ugly under.  How will massage boy acclimate to a full off season?  Will we ever see the Pro Bowl QB we saw just a few years ago.  Tough game to cap IMO. 

-Gettys at Colts  +4  (43.5)

Jags are another sexy pick to make a deep run. Jags RSW 9.5 juiced to the over.  Colts 6.5 with an unhappy RB who wants out.  Rookie QB starting and a new coach.  Idiot owner.  All of this spells distraction/disaster.  Another division game to open the year but I'm inclined to the lay the points even on the road.  I think the weapons Lawrence has will be the difference.  Ridley could be a nice fantasy winner for some teams.  ( sorry, had to bring it back to FF )   If we completely erase Lawrence's rookie season he looks like he's worth the number 1 overall pick and has a bright future.

Ok, I lied.  Getting a little wordy with the write ups here but once I start vomiting my thoughts I simply have to get them all out.  Apologize.  

- Bucs at Vikings  -6.5  (45.5)

What to make of this years Bucs team?  You go from Brady to Baker/Trask era and some aging WRs and Defense.  Oddsmakers have the Bucs RSW set at 6.5 but heavily juiced to the under and rightfully so.  Only thing not keeping this number at 5.5 is the division.  I mean seriously, who is winning this division this year?  Saints?  Falcons?  its not the other 2.  Its a mess.  Defense will still be decent so I give a slight edge to taking the points in this one but not sure I can bring myself to do it.  I really wanna see how the run game for Minny looks without Dalvin. We know they can throw and will throw more often now.  I just need to see it with my own eyes.  

- Titans at Aints  -3  (41)

Dead nut under here.  Tough building to play in for an opener for an offensively challenged Titans team with a RB with a lot of miles on the tires and a meh WR turned QB.  Now, hearing Treylon dealing with an injury in practice as well.  As for the other side, lots of questions at WR with Olave being a stud in the making but then what?  Will diva Thomas revert back to the pass catching monster he once was or does he just enjoy getting paid for doing nothing?  Cant fault him, some men aint built the same.   

- 49'rs at Steelers  +2.5  (41)

Normal west coast team having to head East for a noon kick. This one should also be ugly and almost unwatchable.  Lots of kinks to work out and Purdy vs Pickett doesn't sound like a game I'm willing to focus too much energy on.  Lean under again here.  Punt.  

- Cards at Skins  -6  (39.5)

Last of the noon kicks and we get another stinker.  Cards RSW at 4.5 and that might be too high.  Skins rolling with Howell and a coach who's out of touch IMO.  Defense alone should help the skins win this one.  Their D line among the best in the league and that spells trouble for the lowly Cards who are tanking for Caleb. ( yup, calling it before the season starts ) Maybe someone here has an angle they wanna discuss for this game. Go ahead, I simply don't have the energy.  lol.  

cont........  man, I forgot how draining this is.  

- Pack at ODB's  -2.5  (44.5)

Yet, another division opener.  Bears finally getting some weapons for the young QB who looked absolutely a bust at times last year then all of the sudden something clicked and looked like the future.  I'm still not completely sold on his mechanics at the NFL level but he masks a lot with this ability to run when the play breaks down and thats extremely hard to game plan for.  Add in another weapon in DJ Moore and they are building towards something. Schedule looks extremely easy as well, hence the RSW at 7.5 juiced to the over.  Add in a division that is up for grabs and Da Bears might end up surprising some people this year.  I'm hearing Love has looked good in camp and pre but I just can't see a team that struggled last year at 8-9 with a hall of fame QB doing anything close to that.  Outside of Watson, who could be a regression candidate, who are they throwing to?  Lean Bears and over here.

- Raidazz at Broncos  -4  (44.5)

Payton isn't fixing Russ.  He's done as an elite QB in this league.  When you care more about your Gram life and being the beta to your more famous wife then football is on the back burner.  Yeah, I said it and I could be dead wrong but my eyes tell me he's not the same and not getting it back anytime soon.  Maxx with minimum 2 sacks in this game. Book it.  Bet it.  Wheel it.  Division game yet again so will be played tight.  You have the perfect game manager in Jimmy that should help keep this within the number.  Most people are writing off the Raidazz already and thats fine. But for week 1, give me them plus the points.  

- Dolphins at Chargazz  -3  (50)

Big total here for a reason.  2 great offenses and healthy more importantly.  Asante and JC will have their hands full all day and the Phins have a nice stable of solid RB's they can interchange to mix it up.  If Tua can stay upright, this team will put up points all season. Same with SD.  This feels like a 28-27 type game and one I'm very interested in watching.  Lean over.   

- Iggles at Pats  +4.5  (46)

Is anyone else bothered/annoyed at Bills inability to change and adapt?  Its like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole.  Just look at their WR payroll.  I won't spend too much time on that depth chart because they obviously didn't either.  He wants to run and run and run some more. Put up FGs and play great D.  Boooooooring.  But whatever, it kinda works for them but they won't be going anywhere this season so I won't be paying too much attention to them this year.  Philly is as stacked as anyone in the league.  They lost key players only to add others and retool.  As much as it pains me to say, they've done a fantastic job building a stacked roster that will make them successful with talent alone.  Lean Philly -4.5 even on the road.  

- Rams at Hawks  -5.5  (47.5)

Are we sold all of the sudden on Geno Smith?  Was last year simply a one hit wonder or was the Carroll secret sauce the difference in making a perennial journey man into a pro bowler?  Also, are we really that down on the Rams all of sudden?  They bot a title. We all understand that and they have to pay the piper at some point but is that now? Defense will be bad, but they still have a very competent offense and competent coach who's most likely coaching for his next gig. 5.5 in a division opener is too much for me.  Lean Rams in this one.

finally...........

- Cows at Giants  +3.5  (46.5)

Yet, another division opener and it feels like we open with the Giants every other year.  Always a very tight game and I expect more of the same. Dallas is loaded at almost every position but it feels like thats the same narrative every year and it all boils down to 2 things.  Dak and staying healthy.  Im not a Dak believer, matter of fact I think he sucks, so we go as he goes.  Our record is insane when he throws the ball less than 25 times.  When he throws the ball over 25, well you get it.  Also, it feels we are one injury away from sucking.  Too top heavy with little depth.  That said, if we stay healthy this team will win a bunch of games and make the playoffs only to suffer another heartbreaking loss like every year.  Wash rinse repeat.  The Giants are trending up.  Love the Waller pick up and hear he's tearing it up in camp.  Will likely be a target monster for Danny Dimes this year.  Saquon caving on his deal was perplexing but when healthy, he's a top 3 RB in the league and they will lean heavy on him. Defense is solid as well. RSW of 7.5 is also a little worrisome for a team that made the playoffs and even won a playoff game. But I think they can surpass that.  As for this game, it feels like the oddsmakers want you to take the hook so I lean the Cows.  Schedule is tough for us in the first 6 games with the Jets on deck so they will need a fast start.  

- Bills at J.E.T.S  +1.5  (47)

And finally we get the game of the week on a Monday night.  9/11 in NY.  You best believe we are taking the Jets here.  Bills are a regression candidate for me.  They rely too much on Allen and he has shown to be very mistake prone when pressured and even when he's not.  The talent is there don't get me wrong, but he often makes some bone headed mistakes at times they can't afford to but they will be in almost every game. I also don't love the dynamic with Diggs and all the drama. This feels like a boiling point moment before he asks to be traded if their season starts to go downhill.  Tough division to predict but they are still the favs but I could see a slow start.  On the other side of the ball, I think getting Rodgers on this team is a match made in heaven and no I'm not typing this after the Hard Knocks hype.  On offense they have weapons all over the field and added a pro bowl RB to ease the transition for Rodgers. Defensive line is one of the best in the league and not to mention their stud corner.  Only problem I see for the Jets is they have a brutal schedule. If they happen to start the year 1-4 will the media and NY turn on a QB who is already very sensitive ?   time will tell, but I'm willing to back them in this opener.  Lets see where the line goes closer to kick.  

ok. now that I'm done I remember why I only did a few of these last year.  this shit is time consuming.  much respect to all the guys that step up to do this on a weekly basis. 

Lets discuss and feel free to poke any holes in some or all of my thoughts.  again, this is just me vomiting everything on the fly.  Lets have a great season fellas and or ladies    

I haven’t seen this much vomit since Bigred closed down the Old Country Buffet All You Can Eat Real Deal Meal back in 2013!

Dude was sweating, slurping, burping, chomping, stomping, yet still babbling and dabbling.

Even after he hurled for the 3rd time, he was right back at the salad bar.

LaMar Jackson still sucks.

@BIGDTITLE

Not bad at all. 

@Cranky_Hank

 Lamar is going to make you eat crow..and drink Old Crow. 

I think the Browns ground and pound dink and dunk and get it done.

Lions supremely confident leaning them and the U.

I too love CD but i'm not sure he can pull a Jesus.Yet, i keep hope alive. 

@Cranky_Hank

 The Town Drunk  

@BIGDTITLE

 Great job....

Nice

Didn't realize the panthers OL was a mess...thanks....they gashed some teams in the run game last year but I didn't really look into their pass pro last year

Giants RSW is because they won a ton of 1 score games and had a couple improbable comeback wins.  Oddsmakers expect a regression in that area as they put up an unsustainable number.

Initial numbers that caught my eye

Cin/cle under 47.5....prefer if burrow doesn't play...browns should run the ball to.keep it away cincy offense...divisional games always a little bit tighter

Ten/no under 41.5....2 under rated def imo...carr in  a new system could be slow going for 2-3 weeks...tannehill usually a game manager and titans love to pound the run...like one team under 20 points here

Sf/pit under 40.5....Pickett and Purdy kinda scare me here....sf elite D...steelers d not to shabby either...hard to see both teams over 20 here ...not sure how totals fare on west team flying east or vice-versa

Mia/lac over 50.5....missed this at 50.0 at my book....fave over of the week....should be 2 top 10 offenses this season, if not top 5...like both teams over 20+ points here...don't like that mia has to fly west

Titans +3.5... they should keep NO close...gritty team....decent coach...good running game...I like the under which typically favors the + points

Will be looking at props in the kc/det, mia/lac and tb/min games..already have a few circled and waiting on lines

@dubz4dummyz

 That Clev/Cincy total caught my eye also but something tells me it creeps over. 

Will Cyrax like the over as well ?

@Cranky_Hank

 Lamar   Jackson....

@Cranky_Hank

 Lamar   Jackson....

looks like we agree on a lot  

@dubz4dummyz

 Giants team is not even close to that team from last year. Offense will be a thousands times better with waller addinv a dimension they havent had a long time. With him and a bulked up bellinger at TE it will make it easier for an improved receiving core led by a returning slayton newly added campbell deep threat Hyatt and slot and possesion receivers beasley robinson and shepard. Throw in saquon catching passes and running behind a better line with a real center finally an improved neal and thomas continuing to ascend to top 3 tackle. Guards are meh but maybe sign 1 during cutdown period.

Defense in drafting Banks 1st and a steal in hawkins 6th and adoree in the slot with mckinney in contract year and pinnock balling with beltin ascending secondary could be a big strength.  Dline top 3 in the league with lawrence williams olujari thibodeaux with 7th round steal riley robinson and roches could be tough to run on and if they get a pass rush watch out. 

@Biscuiteater1

 Ya I just wonder if it plummets to like 43 or something if they announce burrow out

Total is 5-5 to this number last 10 matchups and 3-1 to the  under last 4...if u don't like going to far back as so much changes year to year in the NFL 

@Brooklyncapper

 Should be better....I just wouldn't trust Danny dimes...but he could prove me wrong

@BIGDTITLE

 I said this during an in-game thread during his first college game and I'm saying it now. I think Stroud is going to be good.