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Week 7 Winners (35-11 YTD Record)....

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Posted: #151
MY BOOK IS LIKE THIS BETS2WIN:

PANTHERS+3.5
EAGLES+2.5
BUCCANEERS-3.5
SEAHAWKS -5.5
CHARGERS -2.5

WHAT DO YOU THINK BETS2WIN. ANY COMMENTS?
 
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Posted: #152
vincet jacksonwill not play this week .eligible after his  3 game suspension play against indy nov 28th. so grand master al & wanna trip your wrong sorry. bets2win. i already have tampa-3,seattle-5.5,atl/cinci ^42.5,i will not paly sandiego gates might not play.im playing the ^43.5 instead.im huge sf fan so i wont bet on my team or against.dont like your philly play jackson out.like dallas/minn^44.alsolike  no/clev^44.balt -7&no-7 his my 7 point teaser of the week. i usually bet $50plays,3 team parlays.cant afford thousands like some these big players.so good luck to all
 
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Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by bets2win:


COOL Trends Man... 

No Offense but I wipe my ass with "trends"... all they've ever done was clouded my vision and convinced me out of betting really good games!!! 

I Avoid Trends at ALL Costs and you should too!!! Even if they hit, they have Absolutely NO Factors on the Game and they mean NOTHING!!! Trends are just "ironic" and more "coincidental" than anything else!!!

The sooner you give up following trends, the sooner you'll become a Better Handicapper...Trust Me... 


If you actually looked into those trends, you would see they are far from coincidence. A lot of trends are coincidence, some, are not. Good cappers are able to tell the difference between the two. You seem a little over confident right now, normally that means a downswing is coming.
 
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Posted: #154
Quote Originally Posted by sixers030409:



If you actually looked into those trends, you would see they are far from coincidence. A lot of trends are coincidence, some, are not. Good cappers are able to tell the difference between the two. You seem a little over confident right now, normally that means a downswing is coming.


Trends like that say nothing about the titans they are independant variables it all depends on the teams they have faced when those trends were taken. lets say there was stat where on roullette red hit 56% of the time or something, your saying that red is somehow more likely to hit then black when they actually have the same probability, useless stat, and yes it is a coincidence.   STATS 101 CH  1 (independant and dependant variable)
 
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Posted: #155

You are a legend.

I'm driving with you till' the whell fall off.

GL

 
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Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by thaking3412:



Trends like that say nothing about the titans they are independant variables it all depends on the teams they have faced when those trends were taken. lets say there was stat where on roullette red hit 56% of the time or something, your saying that red is somehow more likely to hit then black when they actually have the same probability, useless stat, and yes it is a coincidence.   STATS 101 CH  1 (independant and dependant variable)


just to elaborate when I say this I mean maybe the titans are 21-6 ATS against the nfc because they played the detroit lions 21 times or something like that when this stat was taken ( I know thats not the case but for simplicity's sake). those trends have nothing to do with this matchup
 
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Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by sixers030409:



If you actually looked into those trends, you would see they are far from coincidence. A lot of trends are coincidence, some, are not. Good cappers are able to tell the difference between the two. You seem a little over confident right now, normally that means a downswing is coming.

Im sorry if you feel that im "over confident" but I personally HATE trends... A buddy of mine LOVEs trends and used to Force-Feed them down my throat and bc of one of his Completely Useless Trends, lastyr he talked me out of a HUGE Bet (wouldve been my Biggest Bet of the Season) bc the "trend was 0-26" or some bullshit... Needless to say I listened to him and Missed on a MONSTER Payday... It takes A LOT of time, effort, and balls to Gain the Confidence to invest a HUGE amount on 1 Single Game and I spent days researching this game.... He spent Minutes showing me this Trend and making me Doubt my Gut feelings.... Bc of this, NEVER will I allow Trends to sway my Opinions... Sorry if Im coming off "over-confident" because of this.
 
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Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by TheG0at:

Hey bets... big fan, i just have to question the Chargers pick.

They are without Gates, Floyd, Naanee, kaeding and they are beating bad teams at home and losing to bad teams away... Their defense ranks are due to bad sepcial teams plays that are giving TD's and short field positions + their offense is staying on the field which means the defense is hardly plays, thus the low yardage... They are not a # 1 defense, and after losing their top 3 targets (4 if u include Vincent Jackson) I can't see them winning here. They will not be undefeated at home... Also the Patriots defense havent been terrible. They did put together some good games and seem to be coming together. If you can elaborate more it would do me great.

On a side note I agree with your other picks 100%. I am probably not playing the 49ers game because I think the 9ers is a better team and they may put together a small winning streak here. Although Panthers may very well win off a bye at home against a team that finds ways to lose games.

 

I agree...... especially without GATES.... SD is the Dallas Cowboys of the AFC division... everybody thinks they are good but they both suck this year.

 
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Posted: #159
Quote Originally Posted by WAIWAI:

MY BOOK IS LIKE THIS BETS2WIN:

PANTHERS+3.5
EAGLES+2.5
BUCCANEERS-3.5
SEAHAWKS -5.5
CHARGERS -2.5

WHAT DO YOU THINK BETS2WIN. ANY COMMENTS?

Love the Panthers Line
Love the Seahawks Line
Like the Chargers Line ( got lucky and got them yesterday at -1.5, went back today and they were at -2.5 so its not a bad line, atleast its Under the Key number of 3! )

The Eagles and Bucs lines aren't "Terrible", they just aren't "Great"

BOL my Friend!!!  
 
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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by bets2win:


I dont mean to come off as an asshole but are you kidding me? And I should accomodate to those lazy-ass bums who cant take the time to actually read what I've written, prior to placing their Wagers??? You've gotta be joking... Sorry man, if you guys cant take the time to read what I've written, then thats your problems. 

What I dont understand is this... When I used to come here back in College, I "preferred" to Only read the Threads who actually broke down the game bc I could apply my personal knowledge and opinion with theirs and see if I agreed/disagreed with their reasoning. I think, other than putting out Winners, the BEST thing that I do is Post a Detailed Write-Up explaining my reasons for Picking that Team... Granted, without the Write-Ups, Im still Picking Winners, but without the actual Paragraph of Stats and Information, how can you REALLY get behind me and "Agree" to Wager your hard-earned money on my Picks??? It just baffles me that some of you don't read my Write-Ups, thats such a shame as I'm giving you GREAT information and Honestly, I learned to Handicap the NFL by Reading Write-Ups (VERY Similar to Mine) and Paying VERY Close attention to What Exactly those Handicappers considered Important and Meaningful... I wasnt just reading other guys/gals writeups to get their picks, I was reading them to eventually pick my own games... and here I am, giving out Winners... I'd Strongly Suggest that some of you Do the Same and Develop your Handicapping Skills so that one day, you can be the Person Giving out Winners... But as they say, "All you can do is lead a Horse to the River... But you cannot make them Drink" 

I love your write up Bets

Write ups are the only way to understand why that person is betting on the team. So why would you want to just take someones pick without there reasoning. There's not logical reason so please dont waste your time trying to explain it.

Anyways im with you this week Bets keep up the great work

 
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Posted: #161
bets to win: the line is now at -3 for the chargers. Do you see this game a blow out or is anything over -3 a dangerous play for your biggest game?
 
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Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by bets2win:


Im sorry if you feel that im "over confident" but I personally HATE trends... A buddy of mine LOVEs trends and used to Force-Feed them down my throat and bc of one of his Completely Useless Trends, lastyr he talked me out of a HUGE Bet (wouldve been my Biggest Bet of the Season) bc the "trend was 0-26" or some bullshit... Needless to say I listened to him and Missed on a MONSTER Payday... It takes A LOT of time, effort, and balls to Gain the Confidence to invest a HUGE amount on 1 Single Game and I spent days researching this game.... He spent Minutes showing me this Trend and making me Doubt my Gut feelings.... Bc of this, NEVER will I allow Trends to sway my Opinions... Sorry if Im coming off "over-confident" because of this.


Obviously you never 100% bet a game because of the trend, that would be stupid, but they should always merit some consideration.

These trends are legit tho. Out of conference games are kinda weird, some coaches will put much more stock into them than others. Andy Reid for instance always struggles vs the AFC, even when the Eagles win, its an ugly win.

For example, last year the Eagles lost straight up to the Oakland Raiders when they were 14 point favorites. They also lost to San Diego when the spread was a +1 and struggled vs Denver.

Two years ago, they got crushed by Baltimore 36-7 when the game was a pickem, and they tied the Bengals(who were really bad that year) when they were 10 point favorites.

Last time they played the Titans, four years ago, they were actually 13 point favorites, and got crushed 31-13. Now I know 4 years ago is a long time, but its still the same coaches and same systems therefore similar game plans.

I do like the rest of your picks however, except i'm prob not touching the Seattle game. Love San Diego in this spot since New England is coming off a tough win and not a very good road team at all.
 
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Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by thaking3412:



Trends like that say nothing about the titans they are independant variables it all depends on the teams they have faced when those trends were taken. lets say there was stat where on roullette red hit 56% of the time or something, your saying that red is somehow more likely to hit then black when they actually have the same probability, useless stat, and yes it is a coincidence.   STATS 101 CH  1 (independant and dependant variable)


This could possibly be the worst analogy I have ever read.

Any capper who does not keep an open mind to all information available will never be able to maximize his winnings.
 
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Posted: #164
Nice run Bets.  I am on 3 of your games this week myself.  GL to us
 
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Posted: #165
You young guys crack me up
 
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Posted: #166
Quote Originally Posted by sixers030409:



Obviously you never 100% bet a game because of the trend, that would be stupid, but they should always merit some consideration.

These trends are legit tho. Out of conference games are kinda weird, some coaches will put much more stock into them than others. Andy Reid for instance always struggles vs the AFC, even when the Eagles win, its an ugly win.

For example, last year the Eagles lost straight up to the Oakland Raiders when they were 14 point favorites. They also lost to San Diego when the spread was a +1 and struggled vs Denver.

Two years ago, they got crushed by Baltimore 36-7 when the game was a pickem, and they tied the Bengals(who were really bad that year) when they were 10 point favorites.

Last time they played the Titans, four years ago, they were actually 13 point favorites, and got crushed 31-13. Now I know 4 years ago is a long time, but its still the same coaches and same systems therefore similar game plans.

I do like the rest of your picks however, except i'm prob not touching the Seattle game. Love San Diego in this spot since New England is coming off a tough win and not a very good road team at all.

I feel where you're coming from with the Eagles vs the AFC being a "Legitimate Trend"... But as far as 4 years ago having the "same gameplans", No Way Man!!!... 4 Years ago, Circa CJ2K, VY on Tennessee and the McNabb Era was still happening... Westbrook was still there... Those guys are ALL gamebreakers who can alter Gameplans... Trust Me, the Gameplans are NOTHING Alike!!! 
 
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Posted: #167
I enjoy your write ups B2W and have been an observer so far. Most of your predictions look good this week, but I question the SD pic. NE is cleary the better team here. Although they had a tough overtime win LW and have to fly cross country from Boston to San Diego, they should dominate here. Obviously these situations do take a toll on the players, the pros are used to this and are not effected as much as a college team would be. Also of note is that most of Rivers offensive weapons are out this week. The stats that you used did not seem to take into account the quality of the opponents for each team. NE has a winning record against playing the likes of Balt, Miami, Jets, and the NY Giants. The toughest teams that SD has faced are Seattle, Arizona and KC. If you look at the sag ratings SOS it has NE at # 10 and SD at # 31. Good luck to you. I may be trailing you on some of your pics but I will be going on NE.
 
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Posted: #168

Quote Originally Posted by sixers030409:



If you actually looked into those trends, you would see they are far from coincidence. A lot of trends are coincidence, some, are not. Good cappers are able to tell the difference between the two. You seem a little over confident right now, normally that means a downswing is coming.

 

I agree with B2W. Trends may have a very small place in sports betting, but very small. There are some people who base their bets 100% on trends. By doing this they eliminate looking at the things that really matter. Each new game is a random event that the outcome will have no bearing whatsoever on what has happened in the past!

 
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Posted: #169

Hey Bets2Win any leans on the below games:

New Orleans -13.5 vs. Cleveland

Baltimore -13.5 vs. Buffalo

At first I like Saints and Bills but really can't decide. The Saints finally got a good road win and I feel they will click on offense but they might get caught blitzing to much this game and really get burned.

I like the Bills they have really played team tough for at least a half of football.

Any leans?? Thanks for all your help!!

 

 
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Posted: #170
with respect
 
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Posted: #171

Quote Originally Posted by ACGCOINC:

with respect

 

Chill out dude! B2W seems to be a decent capper, but he went 4-3 last week! His write ups are good be he is not Robert De Niro or the person that he portrays in the movie on his avatar. The best way to win is to do your own homework!

 
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Posted: #172
BETS2WIN thanks for the insight. Keep up the good work. Your a genius.
 
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Posted: #173

Quote Originally Posted by pgotti:

BETS2WIN thanks for the insight. Keep up the good work. Your a genius.

 

I have only been at this forum for 3 weeks, and I see how things work here now! Bets2win is obviously a strawman for the covers forum. When a few folks start getting argumental on some predictions you have 4 or 5 dummies jump into the discussion that have been members here anywhere from 2 years to 5 years, with 5 posts or less, and sucking his dick!

 
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Posted: #174
aye big homie btw love the picks ; i rarely post on here or sign in but after the week i had last week i thought i would give you props on your skills do ya thang baby 

just my opinion after lookin at the numbers  i think the philly gm is is the second best best


 
 
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Posted: #175

Gates is cleared to play. News just came in.

SD might give NE a run for there money...

I still think NE pulls out a 23-21 victory.

 

best of luck bets2win...

 

i'm with you on your other picks though... 4-0 baby not counting SD

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