All Forums | Penalty Box

WWE incorporates with MLB

...

Participants:

Search

Posts: 63

tombstoned

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2016

Posts: 488

Posted: Jul. 21, 2018 - 10:39 AM ET #26

@barneybeans - why stick your rubber nose into it?... #clownshow

0

barneybeans

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 9064

Posted: Jul. 21, 2018 - 10:40 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by cheeser:

Well AhiTov , you either learn to change your handicapping factors, or you get left behind . Don't bet totals huh ? Here's a suggestion .Try an over play if you are afraid of losing to totals. Most sports fans aren't as refined as you , hence juiced balls to run up the scoring , umps squeezing the strike zone ,etc. Football actually changed their rules to avoid low scoring , 1-0 games. Juiced balls are obvious. It's up to you to use all the tools at your disposal to help you make informed bets. cool

Cheeser you rock!

This is a MLB gambling forum and if you don't like the integrity of the game or the color of the new uniforms or the players are kneeling during the anthem feel free to take it to a forum that gives a shít - a forum geared towards the sport.

I know the sport is very important -but- for many professionals it really doesn't matter - you adjust. MLB still offers the best odds, chances to win and lowest vig out there short of small shoe card counting.

A lot of the extra runs are from 1.) Juiced ball, 2) Starting pitchers throwing out their arms after the 4th inning/70 pitches (because the % of fastballs and their velocity is way up these days) and 3.) because good bullpens are far and few and #4) those fastballs in #2 go further. You up the chance of a HR and SO instead of a ball in play.

#3 above responsible for A LOT of these extra runs - like 10 yesterday in the CHC/STL early game.

There was a post here in Covers first half of last year's MLB season and I paraphrase, "years ago oddsmakers lowered the weight of starting pitching by a few points and got killed by the bettors - they switched it back a few weeks later". I tried to find that post because I chimed in but no dice (search feature Covers?)

IMNSO good MLB handicappers in the past 3 years (since juiced ball and manager/hitting philosophy adjustment) are putting more weight into hitting and bullpens. Starting pitching gets you about 5 innings these days. So bet 1st 5. But beware of the juiced ball.

Because of the juiced ball and a higher % of fastballs thrown ball park dimension: Humidity and wind matter more now than they used to.

You all need to adjust the weights in your models. Be careful when comparing splits because past results are more misleading than they ever were. The comparison needs more weight on a team that is hitting lefty fly ball pitchers and how they fared vs them in the recent past in a park similar to tonight's game.

I know LogCottage and a bunch of others long for the days when baseball was baseball, pitchers pitched full games or at least 8 innings, and pitching ruled. I AM ONE OF THEM. I almost shot the load when Keuchel had the no hitter going last night.

The pen is mightier than the pigs