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Bookmaker closes betting for election at 12am EST...

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Veteran
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Posted: #1
some observations on lines as we approach the closing bell...


within the past couple hours...

Obama has moved from (-305) to (-375)
Obama to win CO. has moved from (-130) to (-155)
Obama to win IA. has moved from (-255) to (-280)
Obama to win OH. has moved from (-250) to (-300)
Obama to win VA. has moved from (-120) to (-130)

Obama to win FL. has held steady at (+200)
Obama to win WI. has dropped from (-435) to (-415)



some have suggested that the money moving Obama odds up is square late money... but i would think if there is sharp money out there (presuming the "sharp" money is on Romney)... shouldn't these lines be coming down below 300 and even into the 250 range or lower?

shouldn't lines on Ohio, Colorado and Virginia be dropping?  all i hear on FoxNews is how Romney has so much momentum... New Gingrich said Romney will win Ohio by 6 POINTS!!!!

i guess Newt Gingrich doesn't have money to wager on such a prediction... because that sort of prediction (if accurate) should equate to a line of (-1000) or so in favor of Romney to win Ohio...
 
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Posted: #2
update... since i typed this up (2 minutes ago)... Ohio is now (-310) for Obama...


that sharp Romney money better start coming in soon, or they are gonna get shut out...



 
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Posted: #3
action on Romney in Iowa and Ohio...


Iowa down to (-260) for Obama
Ohio down to (-280) for Obama


still up from where lines were this afternoon, though...
 
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Posted: #4
with less than an hour to go, the action is heating up!


Iowa back up to (-320)
Ohio back up to (-360).......
Colorado up to (-160)
Wisconsin up to (-435)
Florida drops to (+210) for Obama (-260) for Romney


actually having trouble keeping up with the moves at this point... Iowa and Ohio jumped twice just while i was trying to type tis post... amidst all of the state action, still no change in the overall election line at (-375)...
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
Heads up fellas, there is a Romney TSUNAMI on the horizon...Just sayin..
 
Veteran
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Posted: #6
thanks for the heads up... strangely, it seems that nobody who believes Romney is going to win the election has any money to wager on it...



anyway, with just a few minutes to go, only one move to update...

Ohio has bumped up to (-370)


anybody else want to share closing lines?  are other books closing the action at 12am EST also?
 
Veteran
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Posted: #7
hmmmm... now that we've reached 12am, the Bookmaker message now suddenly says closing is 12 noon... lmao... i think they just sucked in some wagers from people thinking the betting window was about to close...

anyway...

Iowa up to (-340)
Florida down to (+190)


guess BM isn't closing the windows afterall... very tricky!
 
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Posted: #8
Dimes

Obama -355 to win the election

Colorado Obama -150
Florida Romney -240
Iowa Obama -345
Minn Obama -900
NC Romney -410
Ohio Obama -350
Penn Obama -600
Virginia Obama -150
Wisc Obama -420

Virginia is the confusing one for us bettors.  At this point the line suggests there has been a big shift from Romney to Obama...but Romney focused a ton of attention and money on that state.  If that line movement is true, I'll be interested to see why.

LOL...CNN had the first ballots cast in a town called Ditch Notch, New Hampshire...population 10.  Everyone voted and they counted right there...it was a tie 5-5...lmao...now as a joke they are having "experts" say what they think that vote means. 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #9
Name of the town was Dixville...sorry.
 
Captain
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Posted: #10
If Barry wins Virginia you can thank a clown named Virgil Goode...
 
Veteran
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Posted: #11
good point, Tilt... and imo, Obama can't win this election if he loses Virginia...



as i see it, this is coming down to 3 states...

first, as a caveat, Romney MUST win Florida... if he loses Florida, it's over... 0% chance Romney wins the election without Florida...

so let's start with the assumption that Romney will win Florida... as i see it, that means the election comes down to Virginia, Ohio and Colorado...

i do not believe Iowa, Wisconsin or Minnesota can be stolen by Romney... some might disagree, but i don't think they are in touch with reality here...


if these assumptions are correct, it makes this race very simple...


ROMNEY HAS TO WIN OHIO, VIRGINIA AND COLORADO TO WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!


so... can he do it?  can he get those 3 states?  according to oddsmakers, he is an underdog to win ANY of the 3... and he is a BIG underdog to win Ohio...


basically, it is do or die in Florida, Virginia, Colorado and Ohio... the parlay odds on Romney winning these 4 states is roughly (+1300), if you use the individual state odds from Bookmaker...


 
Legend
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Posted: #12

I remember back in May the Wisconsin recall election of Gov Scott Walker was said to be a preview of the November presidential election...Walker won..,

A whole lot of effort by the Democrat party and the unions went into that recall...Wisconsin has shifted..

 
Legend
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Posted: #13
Gov Romney has two rallies tomorrow, working hard for every last vote, while Pres Obama spends the day playing basketball? Says it all.
 
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Posted: #14
That's true but a lot of people voted against the recall from both sides simply because they didn't agree with the forced recall referendum.
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #15
my book has 

Obama -450
Romney +340 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #16
Odds in Virginia now -160 for Obama...either a ton of money coming in on him, or the books know something we don't...
 
Veteran
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Posted: #17

Fix is in.  The Illuminatti want their boy again.

 
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Posted: #18
Update:  state odds have all moved towards Obama across the board...


Colorado (-170)
Florida (+150)
Iowa (-400)
Ohio (-425)
Virginia (-155)
Wisconsin (-500)


Obama to win Electoral College (-375)



my wagers:

Obama (-160) to win the EC

Obama wins state:

Colorado (-125)
Florida (+170)
Iowa (-260)
Ohio (-260)
Virginia (-125)


liking my value...... i would say it's all over but the whining at this point...
 
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Posted: #19
if for some reason you still like Romney to win this... at least at these prices, the bet you should be making is...

Romney wins Ohio (+325)


it's the same price as Romney wins the election (+325)... but the fact is, he has zero chance of winning the election if he doesn't win Ohio... zero!

you can win Ohio (+325) without Romney (+325) cashing... but not vice versa!


personally, you're throwing money away on either bet, imo... but just giving a heads up to anyone looking to bet at these prices...
 
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Posted: #20
I believe the books extended the action period for the bets due to the large volume of interest they were receiving on the election.

More people are betting with their hearts and not their minds on things like political events.

 
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Posted: #21
I think many people fail to realize how diverse Virginia has become given the growth of Northern VA into the D.C. metro area.  This is one of the fastest growing regions in the past few years and is made up largely of government employees and military.  I believe Virginia is now too urban of a state to turn back red at this point.  

 
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Posted: #22

It actually was/is 12:00 P.M. election day (9 A.M. pacific).

If the past is any indication, you can get some value on the line movements. States broke to Kerry and Gore in 2004 and 2000 respectively while the national line stayed pretty much the same.

I still love FL for Romney and played more this morning (although thought it was going to go up) and VA for Romney as well.

Wis, Iowa, and Ohio for Obama.

 
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Posted: #23
Some potentially valuable lines on 5Dimes:

-Obama -185 for under 309.5 electoral votes. No way he gets there without FL. Great value.

-Also, taking a stab at Obama at +110 for under 294.5 electoral votes, as VA has an even chance of shifting red.



 
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Posted: #24

Romney +375...

nice underdog play for me...

 
 
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Posted: #25
Obama -460 right now at DSI
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