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Election Betting Odds

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Captain
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Posted: #1

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/

This website which is updated frequently, even during the day, currently (mid-day 2016-06-06) gives HRC a 70.2% of winning the Presidency and puts Trump at 23.0%.  Dividing one by the other gives a betting line of HRC -3.05.

When I first discovered this website, HRC was -2.80 and fell to -2.14 at one time.  Since the odds have risen recently, I can only conclude that the Trump University news and Trump's attack on a judge's ethnicity have damaged his prospects.

If you click on NEW: Congress, you will see that the Democrats currently have a 61.5% of retaking the Senate and the Republicans have an 85.5% chance of retaining control of the House.

Since the chance of the Democrats' chance of retaking the Senate is far from certain, I can only conclude that any majority they may obtain will probably be narrow. 

 
Captain
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Posted: #2
The VP odds have changes.  The current (2016-06-06) odds favor Warren and Sessions.
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
This website displays Presidential odds from many sportsbooks:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
The Huffington Post is currently tracking 326 polls from 29 pollsters.  You can follow HRC's and Trump's trendlines:

https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
 
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Posted: #5
https://electionbettingodds.com/

They now have HRC at -3.43.  They also say Biden now has a slightly better chance than Sanders at grabbing the nomination - I am assuming that they figure party insiders would turn to Biden in case of an indictment.
 
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Posted: #6
Funny you had the trump blow hards talking about Clinton ending up being even money or better.

And now crickets 
 
Captain
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Posted: #7
I thought a vocal Islamophobe would benefit from the Orlando attack, but Trump's odds have fallen 2.2% in the last day.
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
The Democrats' chance of retaking the Senate is now up to 67.5%.

The Republicans' chance of retaining control of the House is now up to 89.5%.

A divided Congress coupled with a very unpopular President of either party makes the outlook for real progress on anything during 2017-2020 pretty remote.

Things look pretty grim.  I hope something will happen to brighten the outlook.
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
https://electionbettingodds.com/

HRC is now -4.22, the highest I have seen it.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

The Democrats' chance of retaking the Senate is now up to 67.5%.

The Republicans' chance of retaining control of the House is now up to 89.5%.

A divided Congress coupled with a very unpopular President of either party makes the outlook for real progress on anything during 2017-2020 pretty remote.

Things look pretty grim.  I hope something will happen to brighten the outlook.

Grim for who?

So many people In this country have wanted gridlock and no productivity and progress from the legislative branch.   No critical thought just blatant opposition and negativity with no solutions.

Isn't this what people wanted and voted for?
 
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Posted: #11
Of of late Friday afternoon, Trump's chance of securing the Republican nomination has fallen by 7.5% in the last week.

Kaine is now way ahead (37.5% vs. 18.5%) of Warren in the VP stakes.
 
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Posted: #12
I don't think it matter who the dems choose as vp...

It's interesting to see how the GOP will address the complete nose dive of the GOP candidate...  Isn't the conservative thing to do is to dig in your heels and throw a tantrum refusing to change or evolve in anyway? 

Lucky for them conservatism died on 5/4/16
So perhaps there is a chance 
 
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Posted: #13
https://politicalwire.com/2016/06/27/democrats-see-chance-at-taking-house/

It's currently only about a 10% chance, but the Democrats are allocating cash.

About a month ago I saw an analysis that said if the Democrats' Presidential margin reaches 8% (still unlikely), that would give them a realistic change of retaking the House.
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/06/27/democrats-see-chance-at-taking-house/

It's currently only about a 10% chance, but the Democrats are allocating cash.

About a month ago I saw an analysis that said if the Democrats' Presidential margin reaches 8% (still unlikely), that would give them a realistic change of retaking the House.
That should be "realistic chance."
 
Captain
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Posted: #15
It's not a good thing when one Party has both the White House and the Congress.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #16
^ its good when money talks.

bet big on health care stocks and bank stocks.
new energy stocks.

short big oil
 
Captain
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Posted: #17
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

HRC is currently up 6.8% according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls.  Maybe the Democrats have a better chance at retaking the House than I believe.
 
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Posted: #18
people are sick of republicans siting around for that welfare check in red states.

red states need innovation. all the coal and oil jobs are long gone. theyre all on that heroin now.

the druggies are awesome in red states.

what do red states do anymore? wait for their house to get flooded? wait for their kids to grow up?
 
Captain
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by mainman11111:


what do red states do anymore?
Too many of them pass laws deliberately intended to disenfranchise minority voters to change the electoral composition and make white voters more powerful.
 
Captain
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Posted: #20
https://electionbettingodds.com/

Sanders' odds of grabbing the nomination have risen, but only slightly.  The odds are that HRC will not be indicted.


 
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Posted: #21
https://electionbettingodds.com/VicePresident.html

As of 2016-07-10, Kaine and Pence are currently both heavy favorites.
 
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Posted: #22
Although the schedule is subject to change, Warren has been awarded a prestigious opening-night speaking slot, making her VP selection somewhat less likely.

https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/12/warren-will-speak-on-first-night-of-democratic-convention/

I am glad; she is an influential Senator and I hope she remains where she is.
 
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Posted: #23
https://electionbettingodds.com/

As of Wednesday afternoon, Trump's odds have risen 2.2% in the last 24 hours.  The chance of a Trump Presidency is currently rated at only 24.7% even with that recent boost.

Trump and the Republicans have run virtually no ads and the race is still reasonably close.  HRC is not a "lock."
 
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Posted: #24
https://electionbettingodds.com/

HRC's odds have fallen 3.3% in just the last 24 hours.  At 69.4%, anybody laying -300 on HRC currently has a negative expected value.
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #25
https://electionbettingodds.com/

Current odds:  HRC 68.7%, Trump 29.2%

The ratio is now HRC -2.35; Trump has strengthened his position markedly since I began this topic on 2016-06-06.
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