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Election Betting Odds

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Captain
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Posted: #26
https://electionbettingodds.com/VicePresident.html

Kaine is currently a huge favorite over Vilsack:

Kaine 70.9%
Vilsack 18.2%

Kaine is fluent in Spanish.
 
Captain
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Posted: #27
The odds are quite volatile:

https://electionbettingodds.com/

EBO - Trump 29.2%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

538 - Trump 42.3%, which would make Trump an excellent bet at anything over +200 which currently has a juicy positive expected value.

Betting lines are quite volatile.  With much lower limits, they are subject to rapid change.

Good luck to bettors.  Maybe the safest thing is just to lay the heavy chalk and bet HRC to carry HI and Trump to carry ID.
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #28
Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?

In the past 50 some years, if one party holds the White House for eight years, more than likely that party won't win four more years. The only exception was George HW Bush after eight years of the Reagan presidency. ..
 
Captain
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?

In the past 50 some years, if one party holds the White House for eight years, more than likely that party won't win four more years. The only exception was George HW Bush after eight years of the Reagan presidency. ..
HRC is unpopular.  If she wins, the desire for change could be even stronger after 12 years of Democratic presidencies, no matter how badly Trump may end up losing.
 
Captain
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?
Jobs created:

Babushka  -338,000
Obama   +7,765,000

  • The average amount of private sector jobs created during Democratic Presidential terms is 1,536,560 and the average amount during Republican Presidential terms is 650,330.
https://www.truthfulpolitics.com/http:/truthfulpolitics.com/comments/u-s-job-creation-by-president-political-party/
 
Captain
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

Forget the odds look at history..... why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record?
If you are talking/complaining about American troops stationed in more than 150 countries - Obama, like all of his predecessors for decades, is acting as if it is 1946 - than I share your criticism.

However, both HRC and Trump have bellicose records.  Neither is a peacenik who will ratchet down the terrible tension.

Liberals >>> vote Green.
Conservatives >>> vote Libertarian.
 
Captain
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Posted: #32
https://electionbettingodds.com/

HRC is all the way down to -2.12.
 
Captain
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Posted: #33
I saw HRC's ratio line as low as -2.04.  It is currently at -2.24.  Her convention bounce should fade, but it might still be growing.
 
Captain
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Posted: #34
Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -2.50 (70.2/28.4).
 
Captain
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Posted: #35
Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -3.06 (73.8/24.1).
 
Captain
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Posted: #36
Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -3.43 (75.2/22.0).

I'd say it's more than a convention bounce; with so many self-inflicted wounds, Trump is his own worst enemy.  If he refuses to STFU, he will make certain that the election is about him and he is doomed.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Too many of them pass laws deliberately intended to disenfranchise minority voters to change the electoral composition and make white voters more powerful.


Really...You say some states pass laws to intentionally disenfranchise some voters....Exactly what do these laws say...and how do they work...Does't seem fair to me if red states do this kind of practice...
 
Captain
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyDrizzl:



Really...You say some states pass laws to intentionally disenfranchise some voters....Exactly what do these laws say...and how do they work...Does't seem fair to me if red states do this kind of practice...
The Wisconsin voting restrictions were overturned:
https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/29/wisconsin-voting-restrictions-overturned/

Wisconsin is neither Blue nor Red.  It has been carried by the Democratic Presidential candidate in every election since Reagan carried it in 1984.

Wisconsin's Republican governor and Republican state legislature imposed those restrictions which were overturned.

Voter ID laws impact minority turnout:

https://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/voter-id-laws-minorities-111721

In 2012, an uncommonly frank GOP politician admitted that voter ID laws were intended to suppress Democratic turnout:

This weekend, Pennsylvania Republican House Leader Mike Turzai (R-PA) finally admitted what so many have speculated: Voter identification efforts are meant to suppress Democratic votes in this year’s election.

At the Republican State Committee meeting, Turzai took the stage and let slip the truth about why Republicans are so insistent on voter identification efforts — it will win Romney the election, he said:

https://thinkprogress.org/politics/2012/06/25/505953/pennsylvania-republican-voter-id-laws-are-gonna-allow-governor-romney-to-win/

Most of the states that imposed voter restrictions are conservative:

https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/Restrictive_Appendix_Post-2010.pdf

The Rhode Island law was fairly broad and accepted a wide range of ID's.

 
Captain
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Posted: #39
The Democrats are currently still unlikely to take the House:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/11/democrats-still-unlikely-to-take-house/

https://electionbettingodds.com/congress.html
 
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Posted: #40
Last I check my book has Hillary at -350 as trump is going down in flames 
 
Captain
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Posted: #41
I keep expecting HRC's convention bounce to diminish, but it has not as of yet (check this trend chart):

https://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html
 
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Posted: #42
What do you see as a good buy in price for Hillary?
 
Captain
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

What do you see as a good buy in price for Hillary?

Sorry.  I just post information; I have no intention of placing an election wager nor the ability to construct my own line.
 
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Posted: #44
Cool Please  keep it up... Money talks and the lines often give us an idea of what is going on
 
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Posted: #45
Still growing - the current ratio is HRC -4.11 (78.1/19.0).
 
Captain
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Posted: #46
I guess the HRC convention bounce is over - the ratio has narrowed to HRC -3.72 (76.6/20.6).

https://electionbettingodds.com/

That electoral map may have a Blue tinge - some recent polls in FL and IA look better for Trump.
 
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Posted: #47
Third party in debates?  Probably not - it is likely that the public will be force-fed those two unpopular candidates and have to search the Internet for information about Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and other minor party candidates.

https://electionbettingodds.com/Johnson_Debate.html
 
Captain
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Posted: #48
Trump continues to close the gap.  The current ratio is HRC -3.26 (74.9/23.0).
 
Captain
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Posted: #49
Trump is on the march; let's hope he's not doing a goose step.  The current ratio is HRC -2.69 (71.4/26.5).
 
 
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Posted: #50
After a few days of unusual stability, Trump has resumed narrowing the margin.  The current ratio is HRC -2.30 (67.3/29.2).
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